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Crunchy
3.5K posts
@gfodor @plasmarob It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. Inasmuch as you are like other humans, your decision reflects other people’s decisions. If you choose red, this is evidence that other people will choose red. By the same token, if you choose blue, this is evidence that others will choose blue.
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@plasmarob in the thought experiment, you are teleported into a booth, nobody knew the vote was happening, and there was zero discussion. in that scenario, you can be basically certain your vote will not change the outcome: the outcome is pre-determined as far as you care. vote accordingly
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@BigTomGamerMan I didn’t miss that if you read the whole thread
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@MrEldenThing You're missing the part that Red could also be mental modelling that among everyone on Earth, there is no way that Blue is being pressed more than 50% of the time, and the sample in the poll is self-selected to be far more conscientious than the entirety of humanity.
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"what's with all the goblins in the training data"
Nick@nickcammarata
alignment theory: we need fifty years worth of shard theory progress in five years alignment practice: lets make sure to tell it no goblins twice so we're absolutely sure there's no goblins
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@nosilverv It’s cuz it’s a badly articulated scenario so everyone’s guessing what the question is
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Crazy that philosophers are split 50-50 on this
Val C. Delamere ♦️@ValDelamere
am i missing something or is the answer really easy? since the predictor is guaranted to be correct just take box B since it would've predicted that you did that lol?
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Risk analysis: being a gullible mark is too high a price, therefore it’s safer to assume that everyone is trying to cheat me.
The cynicism trap is painful and difficult to escape, because any altruistic behavior or attempt to free you is further proof of nefarious intentions.
Totori Screenshots@totoriscreens
@IXianVernius My favorite part of this is the group of people saying "I don't sympathize with others, I lie, I cheat, and I love risk" is NOT the virtue signalers, they're the ones telling the truth, and people who don't do those things are lying.
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Crunchy@MrEldenThing
@ZakMndebele @planetiquely There is a principle of anonymous coordination; if I act X way, others will do X. Therefore if I act Y, others will do Y. Reds do not believe this is possible, because as I correctly modeled, the fundamental difference between Red and Blue is ex ante vs ex post.
QAM
@ZakMndebele @planetiquely The fundamental Red case is extremely simple. Because this is a prediction game, any further analysis has to take place in Blue territory (ex post), so my imagined Red retort is in that context.
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Your last sentence is accurate, what is incorrect is the modifier you added later in the original thread (unless I am misinterpreting it, which is possible). The thread also models red arguments, but not the red case itself - yes, many reds have said that 100% red makes blue unnecessary and that in practice red will get a majority, but the red case doesn’t depend on either of those the way the blue case depends on the arguments you have given blue.
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@ZakMndebele @planetiquely There is a principle of anonymous coordination; if I act X way, others will do X. Therefore if I act Y, others will do Y.
Reds do not believe this is possible, because as I correctly modeled, the fundamental difference between Red and Blue is ex ante vs ex post.
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The probability that an election featuring 8 billion people will be decided by a single vote is so absurdly minuscule it is nonexistent for all practical purposes. You might as well ask what happens if you win the lottery every day for the rest of your life. Choosing to risk death because of it is moronic and unjustifiable.
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Ah but now we are just haggling over price, the Lovecraftian alien who created the game observes. If the threshold for blue victory is low enough to be considered achievable, Red will vote blue. And if it’s too high, Blue will vote red. Truly, human morality can be bought.
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