@JesseOlson Yeah, I've been following you for a few years and it has been fun to watch a lot of your calls play out. 👊
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plumber pleb
2.1K posts
One of the cleanest Bitcoin charts in history.
Nobody believed it would happen. Not even the self-proclaimed "expert" Wyckoffians.
October 8: $123,700
March 28: $66,800
Jesse Olson@JesseOlson
I don't Wyckoff but let's trigger some #Bitcoin permabulls just for fun, lol.
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The S&P 500 loves to fall on a Thursday.
Week after week.
But don’t worry, the stock market is engineered to go up over the long run.
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@hagel17532 @CryptoChartsJoe @AlexMasonCrypto I think he means he has predicted when and where the next bottom will be this cycle, not that it has already occurred.
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I told you exactly how this cycle would play out.
Now Bitcoin is following the same structure step by step.
For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October.
If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too.
Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
Alex Mason 👁△@AlexMasonCrypto
🚨 READ THIS CAREFULLY Bitcoin’s next cycle bottom won’t be where you think. The part most people ignore: Timing. Days from market cycle top → bottom: 2012: 405 days 2016: 362 days 2020: 376 days We haven’t reached that timing zone yet in this cycle. Purely on historical timing, the highest-probability window for the real bottom is July–November 2026. That matters more than any single number on your chart. Most traders only operate on price: “I’ll buy at X.” But the zone that feels “safe” is usually the zone where people do nothing. I don’t play that game. Below $50,000 I’m a buyer. Regardless of when it happens. July–November 2026 I’m a buyer. Regardless of price. If either condition is met, I buy. No hesitation. Yes, I started accumulating as soon as we entered the $60k range last month, even though the timing window isn’t here yet. Back in October, when Bitcoin was around $120,000, I said I’d be a strong buyer near $60k. People laughed. Sentiment was euphoric: “BTC will never see $100k again.” Now we’re here. There’s one more thing most people keep ignoring: NUPL. Every generational bottom: 2018, COVID, 2022, happened when NUPL entered the blue zone. We’re not there yet. For the record, I was the only one publicly calling the exact bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
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@paxtrader777 @TraderDC Now we just found out today my wife has a large brain tumor at 32 years old. She said, noooo, we have cheap Bitcoin to buy! Haha. If we have any money left after this.
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@paxtrader777 @TraderDC Thanks! My wife is almost completely better and I'm learning how to get by with my limitations. Cartilage damage in ankle. I'm able to work again, thankfully, but only at about 75% of previous capacity and I don't know how long it will last.
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I can’t tell you how many traders I have known that had 10+ million dollar net worths that have lost every bit of it. You know how? Everyone of them from standing in front of a runaway freight train-everyone. I have posted about the importance of 5949 since Jan 1. I would NEVER buy in on a 100 handle gap down. I would buy it on the way up, but never on the way down. I do not care, nor am I impressed with what someone makes in a year or 10 years, the only true measure of success is what you take with you when you are done trading for active income.
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JUST IN: Uber founder says AI will make human labor far more valuable, predicts plumbers could become “like LeBron” in an automated world.
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@intocryptoverse Wait, is it a 4 year cycle or a war cycle? Must be a sim.
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Often times, risk assets sell off, then bounce as major conflicts start.
If a rally for Bitcoin does materialize, it will likely yield a lower high in March, just like it did in 2022.
Bear markets tend to take a while to play out.
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Someone needs to evangelize Elon Musk
Who will lead him to Christ?
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Crypto traders are bored, frustrated, and overtrading right now.
That’s exactly where most people lose their stack before the bull market even begins.
My plan right now is simple:
• Preserve capital
• Take A+ setups only
• Prepare for the next distribution phase
You don’t make life-changing money in the chop.
You make it by surviving the chop and attacking the trend.
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btw Cat imagery meant for hanging on by nails, not a DCB
to be clear
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@AshCrypto 90% of the crypto industry as we know it probably ought to be killed off. Looks like it's been happening over last few years as Bitcoin dominance has climbed. Sentiment among bitcoiners is still pretty good actually.
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I entered crypto in 2016, and this is the worst bull market and worst crypto sentiment I've seen in the last 10 years.
These institutions and governments got involved just to enrich themselves,they don’t give a fuck about crypto and This is exactly what Bitcoin OGs feared. The war was against institutions and banks, but we celebrated their entry and now they control the entire crypto market.
This why Nothing makes sense anymore.
We dump on good news and crash on bad news.
Saylor buys $1B in BTC, price crashes 5%.
Market suddenly crashes when US market opens.
10/10 event wiped $19B with no negative event or news.
Either this is the biggest shakeout in crypto history, or we are going much, much lower and it will kill 90% of the crypto industry as we know it.
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@AshCrypto @KobeissiLetter Were you not around during FTX collapse and binance fears and luna collapse and Celsius collapse in 2021/22?
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BREAKING: Crypto markets have now erased -$1 TRILLION in market cap since January 14th.
That's -$1 trillion in market cap in 22 days, or -$45 billion per day.
There has never been more noise in capital markets than now.
Eliminate the noise.
Creators@XCreators
You thought the fun was over? 🏈 This weekend, video takes center stage on the timeline. We’re awarding $1M, $500K, and $250K to the top three videos about @grok, created with Imagine 1.0.
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@DonAlt I'm kind of in the same spot mentally. I have my hodl bag for long term but I'm sitting on dry powder till it looks worse. If wrong, oh well.
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I'll buy 100% guaranteed
1) Trump steps back/Gets impeached/Removed/Dies
2) BTC goes to $40k - I think that's hilariously cheap
3) Epstein perpetrators get revealed/leaked and people associated get charged
Until then I'll play it day by day and just go off of gut feeling
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Sentiment in bitcoin is the lowest I've ever seen. Lower than any bear market bottom, lower than the scaling debate, lower than FTX or COVID crashes.
Blackrock, Vanguard, JPMorgan, Universities, sovereign wealth funds, nation states, the most influencial asset allocators are all getting onboard.
US gov resistance is gone. The regulatory picture is better than we ever imagined.
The bitcoin ETFs were the fastest growing product launches in history and the most profitable product for Blackrock in 2025.
Momentum indicators on daily and weekly price action are at historic oversold conditions screaming a bottom.
I have to mention crypto here. Altcoins are basically dead. Bitcoin OGs have a lot of crossover with Crypto scammers. They might be choosing to jump ship, selling bitcoin along with their scam coins.
I think this sell off is a last push. IDK how low it goes, but the pain is real already. Fundamentals are amazing, but plebs have to come in and get these discounted prices.
That is all.
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@PhilakoneCrypto Phil, have you ventured a guess for a bottom call yet? I think it could be anywhere between 20k-58k and If I had to pick a number, 37k.
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@CryptoKaleo I predict the slow bleed. Consistent with the non-euphoric top in Bitcoin scenario like in 2019 (before the COVID "rip off the bandaid" moment.
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If Bitcoin is going lower at this point, I'd rather just rip the bandaid off and see a Covid style nuke to the 30s that Vs back up in a few weeks rather than a slow bleed into the 50s / 60s that ranges for a year before it starts to climb back to the highs.
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@TXMCtrades So, between 60ish and 70ish was indecisive re fair value but around the bottom of that trading range traders agreed that any cheaper than that was too cheap which formed a bottom there? And will likely be a bottom again (short term)?
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A market is constantly moving from balance to imbalance. From ranging to trending and back to ranging. Balance is also called value. A well defined value area, like we have in that 2024 range, indicates a place where investors across timeframes agreed on price. When the market moves away from that area and later comes back, it has a tendency to spend less time there. Value was already defined. That naturally creates a sort of magnet where prices can shoot past, seeking the next area of disagreement (or thinness) to once again fill in and find value. This is a simplified explanation of how market profile works. There are of course a lot of nuances.
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@BigCheds @sunnydecree Charts like this really screwed me up in previous cycles. On the contrary, Cheds and his T.A. has proven to be quite sound.
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What if this is already the Bitcoin bear market and we’re almost through it, ready for the next bull market?
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