bush
511 posts
Lauer pulled with 49 pitches, apparently he was under the weather, unfortunate.
Burns finished with 9, 2+ over his line ✅
Harrison cashes the base and +1 ✅
KSplit | Strikeout Analytics@KSplitAnalytics
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Yesterday’s board was a clean example of how the distribution framework behaves once volume and lineup context settle.
Ragans finished with 8 Ks against a 7.5 line, right in line with a High | Tail-Driven profile where the +1 and +2 probabilities were carrying real weight, but were not realized (maybe it WAS the mound's fault)
Robbie Ray also cleared comfortably with 7 Ks vs 5.5, another case where the distribution supported multiple paths to the over.
Peterson landed directly on his median at 5 Ks, while Nelson fell short with 2 Ks in a Low | Centered ceiling profile, where environment where upside was limited from the start.
Taj had a great start (is he back to his old form?) against a strikeout adverse lineup, only having 3 Ks, the model signaled the best edge side was "over" due to the + money on 4.5, oh well.
Reynaldo Lopez (3 Ks) is the one I want to stress. In my modeling, he initially graded as High | Tail-Driven based on the expected lineup, but once the confirmed lineup came out, the distribution compressed and he moved down to Mid | Tail-Supported. That shift materially reduced the accessibility of the right tail.
That is exactly why I stress waiting for confirmed lineups. The entire shape of the distribution can change, not just the mean, and that directly impacts whether +1 and +2 outcomes are actually reachable or just theoretical.
Great slate today, board will update in a few hours.
KSplit | Strikeout Analytics@KSplitAnalytics
Small slate today Max Boost under split influence level for both Ragans and Robbie Ray with the current projected lineups Two High | Tail Driven profiles, Ragans with a Stable Tail environment and Reynaldo with a Tail-Friendly environment Best edge on the board is 27.27% for Lopez o4.5 @ +124 KSplitAnalytics.com full access for free
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Full Recap of today’s High | Tail-Driven profiles
Kris Bubic: 4 Ks ❌
Jack Leiter: 8 Ks ✅
Kyle Leahy: 1 K ❌
Landen Roupp: 7 Ks ✅
Michael Soroka: 10 Ks ✅
Kyle Harrison: 8 Ks ✅
Parker Messick: 5 Ks ✅
Ksplitanalytics.com for full access
KSplit | Strikeout Analytics@KSplitAnalytics
Most think of SD as a strikeout adverse team, this specific lineup was not versus Roupp’s profile. Modeling specific lineups is a core principle in the KSplit framework. Out of the seven High | Tail-Driven profiles today, this is the 3rd to hit at least +2, with Soroka still pending. See for yourself, free for two weeks. KSplitAnalytics.com
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Ceiling Profile and Filtered View (Tail Watchlist) Analysis from Yesterday's Board
Tail Watchlist:
4/5 Pitchers cleared their main line, with Sanchez completing the full ladder, and Eovaldi finishing one over the 5.5 line with 7 Ks.
High | Tail Driven:
These are profiles that have a strong, persistent right tail with multiple paths to big strikeout totals.
Solid results here, all Five profiles converted on their main line, with 40% (Mis and Sanchez) reaching their entire ladder (+1,+2,+3,+4).
Low | Centered:
These profiles have a tightly clustered distribution around the mean. High-K spikes are structurally unlikely.
Mixed results here. Most outcomes stayed within range of the main line, but ceiling breakouts still showed up (Bibee, Boyd), highlighting that even in compressed environments, variance through workload or sequencing can push results outside the expected band.
Albeit only 26 pitchers logged, there is a 4x separation (10% vs 40%) between hitting 2+ over the line between Low and High ceiling profiles.
KSplit | Strikeout Analytics@KSplitAnalytics
Big slate today. Here’s the Tail Watchlist preset view; built to quickly isolate the right tail environments and streamline where to focus for ladder plays. Users have the ability to add any filter they deem necessary as well as which columns to have visible and save it as a preset, in addition to the global ones already created. Opening Day so nothing crazy popping yet, mostly the usual names, but this is exactly how I filter the board down before doing anything deeper. Full dashboard + distributions live at KSplitAnalytics.com
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KSplit is live.
Most strikeout projections stop at a single number. That’s not how this market behaves. In my modeling, strikeouts are driven by matchup probability and plate appearance volume. The distribution is where the signal shows up.
KSplit builds the full distribution from the game specific lineup. You can see how the tail forms, where volatility enters, and which ladders are actually reachable vs just priced to look attractive.
The dashboard is fully interactive. Filter, sort, and isolate the exact components you care about depending on how you approach the market.
Every projection is logged, with an extensive diagnostics page for consistent and clear model evaluation.
Full access free for 2 weeks.
ksplitanalytics.com
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My question is one we may never know the answer to. How much of what we’ve seen for the last three years is Joe Brady’s offense & how much of it was what McDermott wanted the offense to look like? If I knew the answer to that question, I may feel more inspired by the decision.
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@UnderdogNBA @anthonyVslater I’m so heated I’m gonna reply to myself. It’s unbelievable that kuminga hasn’t been traded along with podz/moody(who I don’t wanna see go) this team is so poorly built it’s insane
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@UnderdogNBA @anthonyVslater Everyone on the roster thinks they can just stand around and Steph will do everything. Can’t believe podz gets minutes still and anyone who watches games will agree. Will Richard needs to see the floor way more and a trade needs to be made. It’s getting ridiculous
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Jimmy Butler on the Warriors' 10-10 start, via @anthonyVslater:
"We don’t box out. We don’t go with the scouting report. We let anybody do whatever they want: open shots, get into the paint, free throws. It’s just sad."
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@ryanpropz just woke up from a coma and I don’t see your cheat cheats anymore what happened
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🎄 Because it's Christmas... 🎁✨
Reply with your 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗱, and we'll give you some advice! 👇⚽🔥
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Packs all done ✅
2387 packs 0 blues, nothing short of absolutely devastated I am, 3 months of saving for absolutely nothing…
Ggs EA you win, I retire from playing this P2W 💩 game anymore.
Will be my last post and the account deactivated I need to distance myself.
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