KSplit | Strikeout Projections

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections

KSplit | Strikeout Projections

@KSplitAnalytics

MLB strikeout distributions | Lineup-specific, split-driven bottom up modeling | Occasional degen bets | Full Access below

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
5/20/26 Slate + Methods Recap The methods have been absolutely killing it Since Opening Day: Theory Stack: +44u ✅ Centered Unders: +35.11u✅ Strict Centered Unders: +26.80u✅ Plus Odds Unders 3%+ Edge: +24.53u✅ Stable Tail: +11.52u✅ Low-Tier HTD: +11.95u✅ There really is no wrong method to choose, try for free @ KSplitAnalytics.com, all methods available under the board presets. After an absolutely terrible April for "overs" model is now back to net positive overall, with over signals still down about 9 units. Again, the goal here is to not take every single pick the model puts out, mitigating risk and sticking to consistent unit sizing is what matters most. Got a ladder spot that I’m eyeing for today… waiting for confirmed lineups.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Nice start to the day, Bradish fell under “Centered Unders” method Okamoto only real target in the lineup so I took a stab on that. Shane not looking too great so far… hopefully he figures it out +1.80u ✅
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Close... After devigging the odds, based off my projections, there is an 8.3% edge on the under at +128. My fair odds for this would be around +103. So the market is offering +128 on something my model prices closer to +103, which is where the 8.3% edge comes from. It’s not an 8.3% higher chance of the under hitting. It’s an 8.3% advantage relative to the price being offered.
💩@syc22

@KSplitAnalytics is the right way to read this something like “bibee’s line is at 4.5, and the under has +128 odds… which we think there’s a 8.3% to bet the under at that price”

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Fair value for the main line -128 Second image shows the hitters worst pitch rated by CSW, league average included for reference, and Shane’s usage for that pitch vs the batter’s respective handedness. Example: Soler has a 32.1% CSW vs LHP 4SFB, league average CSW% 28.2%, and Shane throws it 34.5% to RHH.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

Getting this in now, will write it up tomorrow. Amazing reverse split matchup here as Shane’s changeup is one of the best is the league against RHH and LAA is loaded with them.

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Getting this in now, will write it up tomorrow. Amazing reverse split matchup here as Shane’s changeup is one of the best is the league against RHH and LAA is loaded with them.
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Yesterday actually makes sense. Rasmussen has extreme reverse strikeout splits, (As a RHP, Ks LHH more than RHH) and the Angels put out 6(?) RHH. Didn't think it would go as poorly as it did but I did not anticipate a great outing from Rasmussen.
JT’s evil twin brother@JTsEvilTwin

@KSplitAnalytics Pitchers are getting a lot of strike outs against the angels. Except for yesterday

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
I don’t bet HRs but Tatis finally got his first yesterday and is facing Littell today… worth a sprinkle imo
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
5/30/26 Slate and Methods Recap Overall: -2.16u (13-15) Overs: -1.18u (4-5) Unders: -0.98u (9-10) Pretty "meh" day, both sides just slightly negative methods got hit hard though as 3/4 finished in the red. Max ladder on Weathers was a nice hit, Detmers u5.5 and Yesavage ladder were duds. If you took all of those, you finished up around 1.00u Theory Stack +2.23u Plus Odds Unders ≥3% −1.53u Centered Unders -2.97u Strict Centered Unders −0.78u All time and rolling metrics photographed below for the methods
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

5/29/26 Slate and Methods Recap Overall +2.74u 13-9 Overs: -3.13u 3-5 Unders: +5.87u 10-4 Every method finished in the green, we were a Meyer hook away from an even better day Centered Unders +6.71u 9-2 Trevor Rogers u4.5 6.21% Edge @ -152✅ Giolito u3.5 2.08% Edge @ +106✅ Freddy u5.5 8.34% Edge @ -126✅ Cecconi u4.5 5.87% Edge @ -151✅ Lorenzen u3.5 0.49% Edge @ -102✅ Rodon u6.5 6.62% Edge @ -149✅ Sevy u5.5 7.90% Edge @ -148✅ (RIP) Gallen u4.5 1.65% Edge @ -116✅ Kirby u5.5 4.00% Edge @ -140✅ Urena u3.5 3.18% Edge @ -107✖️ Webb u4.5 0.73% Edge @ -128✖️ Strict Centered Unders +1.06u 1-0 Giolito u3.5 2.08% Edge @ +106✅ Theory Stack +0.06u 1-1 Giolito u3.5 2.08% Edge @ +106✅ Meyer u5.5 6.34% Edge @ +123✖️ Plus Odds Unders ≥3% +0.16u 1-1 Wheeler u5.5 8.85% edge @ +116✅ Meyer u5.5 6.34% Edge @ +123✖️

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Second max in 3 days, back on track +120 ✅ +231 ✅ +446 ✅ I know at least one sicko paired him with Woo
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics

Alright went back and forth on this one for a bit but going to pull the trigger Weathers🪜 o6.5 +120 1u o7.5 +231 0.5u o8.5 +446 0.25u Another lefty going against the Athletics after Rodon wasn't his sharpest last night, I like the matchup much more for Weathers, and he's getting a couple favorable K targets at the top of the order which helps considerably.

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Jake
Jake@LunchMoneyDubs·
@KSplitAnalytics @EVFrenzy If the last 5 are green, the play is a full send. Sportsbooks give out these graphs cuz they want us to win
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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
😂 the fact that you’re parading around like some genius is amazing. My argument was your process, not the specific play. The fact he got 7 Ks did not have anything to do with the pattern in the bar chart. In addition it took a statistical anamoly of striking out Chandler Simpson TWICE in one game. Not understanding a correlation between events not being the cause will fail you in the long run. Have a good day
Prop@PropSurfer

No words. Just green that

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KSplit | Strikeout Projections
KSplit | Strikeout Projections@KSplitAnalytics·
Alright went back and forth on this one for a bit but going to pull the trigger Weathers🪜 o6.5 +120 1u o7.5 +231 0.5u o8.5 +446 0.25u Another lefty going against the Athletics after Rodon wasn't his sharpest last night, I like the matchup much more for Weathers, and he's getting a couple favorable K targets at the top of the order which helps considerably.
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Fly 🪰
Fly 🪰@xFlyGod·
@KSplitAnalytics Not realizing that one game doesn't prove his point is a giant self own.
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