Luca Pompili

March 29 12z #natgas - Trend vs 12H: GEFS -6.87 AIGES +4.62 EPS -2.92 EPS AIFS -1.03 - Multi model TDD - TDD Anomaly vs 30yr Normal - Weekend forecast drift GEFS/EPS

March 28 00z #natgas - Trend vs 12H: GEFS +4.38 AIGEFS +5.98 EPS +0.95 EPS AIFS +2.78 - Multi model TDD - TDD Anomaly vs 30yr Normal - Model Spread & Uncertainty - Forecast evolution TDD GEFS

March 26 12z #natgas - Trend vs 12H: GEFS -3.17 AIGEFS -0.43 EPS +7.36 EPS AIFS +9.98 - Multi model TDD - TDD Anomaly vs 30yr Normal - Forecast evolution TDD EPS - Run-over-Run Delta EPS AIFS

March 22 12z #natgas - Trend vs 12H: GEFS -4.47 AIGEFS -0.99 EPS +4.77 EPS AIFS -3.08 - Multi model TDD - TDD Anomaly vs 30yr Normal - Weekend forecast drift AIGEFS/EPS AIFS

March 20 12z #natgas - Trend vs 12H: GEFS -10.98 AIGEFS -1.80 EPS -7.71 EPS AIFS +0.30 - Multi model TDD - TDD Anomaly vs 30yr Normal - Model Spread & Uncertainty - Run-over-Run Delta · EPS Mar 20 12z vs Mar 19 12z

AI models divergence vs regular ENS #natgas

#natgas holy #ttf #lng #qatar 19 Mar - 09:22:48 AM [RTRS] - QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: WE WILL BE LOSING 12.8 MILLION TONS PER YEAR OF LNG FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS, AROUND 17% OF QATAR’S EXPORT LNG (EXCLUSIVE) -

QatarEnergy reports 'extensive damage' after missile attacks on Ras Laffan industrial city · Qatar's state oil giant QatarEnergy said on Wednesday that "extensive damage" has been caused after the Ras Laffan Industrial City was subjected to missile attacks, shortly after the country's interior ministry reported a fire resulting from an Iranian attack on the area. · "Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires," the world's second-largest LNG exporter said in a statement. No casualties were reported and all personnel were accounted for, it said. · Qatar condemned in a statement the attack saying that it represents a "direct threat" to its national security. Iran insists on targeting Qatar and its neighboring countries in an "irresponsible approach," the Qatari foreign ministry added. · Qatar's interior ministry earlier said that civil defence personnel were dealing with a fire in the Ras Laffan area after an Iranian attack. The ministry said that the fire in Ras Laffan area was preliminarily brought under control, with no injuries reported. · Ras Laffan, located 80 km north of Doha, is an energy-industry hub and hosts several international companies. · Iran earlier issued an evacuation ‌warning for several oil facilities across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, including the Ras Laffan Refinery, saying they would ​be targeted by strikes "in the ​coming hours," Iranian state media reported. · Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG installations are being evacuated, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Wednesday, following Iran's threat to attack Gulf energy facilities.

Gulf South Pipeline (Boardwalk) EBB data is locked behind enterprise ADFS auth on GasQuest.com with no public registration. As an interstate FERC-regulated pipeline, their informational postings should be publicly accessible per 18 CFR 284.12. Has anyone managed to get access or found an alternative source for Gulf South OAC data? #natgas

#Natgas demand will surge today as late-season arctic air rapidly advances eastward across the Heartland. Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) will jump to 27.2 GWDDs, +9.4 GWDDs greater than the 5-yr avg & easily the single most for March 16 in the last 5 yrs.

SUNDAY #NATGAS FUNDAMENTALS · Sunday’s 12z weather models are bullish vs Friday’s 12z results. · GFS is bullish (+14 bcf). · ECMWF is bullish(+19 bcf). · In absolute terms: Over the next 16 days (inc. today), GFS projects consumption to average 82.9 bcf/d (slightly above the norm). Over the next 15 days (inc. today), ECMWF projects consumption to average 82.1 bcf/d (slightly above the norm). · Dry gas production is currently estimated at 110.4 bcf/d (-0.2 bcf/d from Friday). · LNG feedgas flows are currently estimated at 18.9 bcf/d (-0.1 bcf/d from Friday). · The net impact on my near-term storage level outlook is bullish. Therefore, my storage level outlook will be revised lower. · On Friday, HH spot VWAP was $3.20 per MMBtu. · NYMEX natgas is likely to gap up once Globex opens

March 14 12z #natgas - Multi model TDD GEFS +5.5 EPS +5.7 EPS AIFS +10.9 - CDD population weighted - TDD anomaly vs 30yr normal - Run over run delta | EPS AIFS Mar 14 12z vs Mar 14 00z

Just made another entry on BOIL at the same price I made my first one. #natgas

An active weather pattern is setting up across the Central US. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings dominate the Northern Tier from Montana to Buffalo, NY. Provided the winds don't get too strong, expect wind generation to ramp up over the next 24 hrs—and for #natgas powerburn to see increased displacement.

@Wxdude518 @CMEGroup I'll catch u there next month☺️

@pmplcu @CMEGroup Ahhh I wish I saw this!

The @CMEGroup March Trading Challenge started on Monday. I've made 3 trades in total, 2 of which were on #natgas. Started with $25,000 and right now I'm sitting at $50,000, with 2 days still left in the competition. The goal was to double the account and I managed to do it in 3 days, so I'm done trading for this one. Currently ranked in the top 70. (P/L not updated yet)

I just made a little long entry on BOIL. I am planning to have at least one more long entry if price drops a bit. I'll call that here when and if I'll open it. #natgas

@VonGebauer Yeah I do trade only US natgas. At the moment I'm very focused on one other thing but once it'll be done I want to get into TTF.

@pmplcu Appreciate the hustle! Do you trade only #natgas? #ttf had been super volatile, might be a good short if it breaks $60 again.

yep. bad trade

i need more confidence on my trades but it's ok, i'm getting better eheh. that could have been a nice short on natgas