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Why I 'm not buying the $SPCX IPO
Post-IPO draw downs
I pulled the numbers on every major dedicated space company that went public in the last few years. See if y'all find a pattern.
$RKLB (Rocket Lab)
→ SPAC, started trading Aug 25, 2021 @ ~$11.30
→ All-time low: $3.72 on Jun 29, 2022
→ Time to bottom: ~10 months
→ Drawdown from open: ~67% → Current price: ~$127
$FLY (Firefly Aerospace)
→ Traditional IPO, priced $45, started trading Aug 7, 2025
→ First-day high: $73.80 → All-time low: $16.00 on Nov 21, 2025
→ Time to bottom: ~3.5 months
→ Drawdown from IPO price: ~64% → Current price: ~$42
$LUNR (Intuitive Machines)
→ SPAC, started trading Feb 13, 2023 @ $10
→ Hit $136 nine days later
→ All-time low: $2.09 on Jan 4, 2024
→ Time to bottom: ~11 months
→ Drawdown from ATH: ~98% → Current price: ~$25
$PL (Planet Labs)
→ SPAC, started trading Dec 8, 2021 @ ~$10.28
→ By Oct 2023 trading in low single digits
→ Drawdown from reference: 70%+
→ Current price: ~$41
$SPCE (Virgin Galactic)
→ SPAC, Oct 2019. ATH $1,256 in Feb 2021
→ Current price: ~$2.50. Never recovered.
Every single one of these saw a 60-98% drawdown from their post-listing highs. The bottom came anywhere from 3 to 12 months out. The only one that didn't recover is the one with the weakest fundamentals ($SPCE).
Couple things worth noting for $SPCX:
SpaceX is a fundamentally different company than any of these. ~$15-16B in Starlink revenue, profitable operations, dominant launch cadence, government contracts, xAI integration.
Obviously the companies I'm using for evidence are much smaller, but the hype may be a consistent feature of space comapny IPOs.
But the behavioral pattern of IPO euphoria followed by a draw down is remarkably consistent across the sector regardless of company quality. $FLY is the most relevant comp since it was a traditional IPO (not SPAC) and it still dropped 64% from IPO price within 3.5 months before recovering.
At a $1.75T target valuation, SpaceX will also be entering at a much higher multiple than any of these did relative to revenue. That alone doesn't mean it'll drop, but it means the margin for disappointment on any single quarter is tighter.
What I'm watching:
→ Day 1-5 action to see if there's a retail-driven pop above IPO price (likely given the 30% retail allocation Musk mentioned)
→ First earnings report post-IPO — this has been the catalyst for drawdowns in $FLY and $RKLB
→ Lockup expiration date (not disclosed yet) — insider selling windows have historically accelerated declines in the space names
If the pattern holds, the better entry probably isn't day one. Historically in this sector it's been 3-6 months after listing.
My plan is to enter with a couple percent allocation, that I will ramp up over the next year to 6-8%.
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