@puppyeh1 Paid clicks are generated by AI?
I’m sure AI searches Google. But not sure AI clicks on the sponsored results section
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polarcalorie
1.1K posts
@polarcalorie Yes but it’s all generated by AI - which itself is sucking insane capex dollars. Net search cash flows - ie revs less costs less capex - are going massively negative
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Anecdotal survey required- when was the last time you used Google search for…anything?
Just speaking personally. I’m 100% AI, on literally everything that would have gone to Google search, say six months ago. Surely many others similar
Jamie Powell@ajb_powell
what $GOOG is doing to its search product is clearly a disaster? higher cost to serve vs trad search, reduced ad visibility for existing clients and a terrible user experience. where am i wrong?
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@MaxAnderson their financial statements show that search paid clicks went up 13% y/y last quarter and cost per click only went up 3% y/y. So what you're suggesting from your post isn't true
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As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty:
This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term
Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries
Google’s response?
Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for
A few examples to illustrate:
For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model
I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid
This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much
However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding
It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem
Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision
Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting
This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed
But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact
-match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)”
The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off
So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam
This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants)
This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes
Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day
And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off
Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target
These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow
Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs
Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future
This is now no longer the case
At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
Sundar Pichai@sundarpichai
Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business. Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which reached 950M monthly active users). Our model APIs are processing 22B tokens/min (up from 16B+ last quarter) driven by our workhorse Flash models. We’re also seeing great adoption of Gemini Enterprise, used by 90% of the Fortune 100, as well as strong demand for our security solutions. Outstanding results and momentum, and such an exciting moment—thanks to all of our partners and employees around the world! 🙌 About to hop on the call!
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@youngermunger7 how did you find this idea? it's very creative
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Fellow investors: $NFBK and $CLBK look like highly asymmetric bets.
Northfield Bank (NFBK) and Columbia Financial (CLBK) are New Jersey-based community banks that provide traditional banking services to local consumers and businesses.
In the next few days, CLBK is set to close on its acquisition of NFBK. CLBK will fund the acquisition with proceeds from a ‘second-step’ IPO. CLBK is already partially public. It will now become fully public.
The market today values both companies as little more than merger arbs. NFBK remains anchored to its takeout price ($14.50/sh at the midpoint), while CLBK, adjusting for the stock split, trades essentially in line. What that misses is that both NFBK and CLBK offer investors the opportunity to purchase pre-IPO shares of the combined company at an extraordinarily low valuation — one that is difficult to reconcile with the quality, scale, and earnings power of the business.
On a pro forma basis, CLBK will be a ~$20bn in assets institution earning solid returns (1.1% ROA / 10.5% ROE) on a very high quality loan book (0.1% NCOs/Loans). The market today is offering us that for less than the company’s liquidation price — roughly 0.9x of TBV. For context, few banks of CLBK’s size have traded at such a valuation in the past two decades. Peers reached that level only in 2011 amid the Great Financial Crisis and 2023 amid SVB bankruptcy. Today, even worse-performing regional peers such as OCFC trade at 1.0x. Banks with similar profitability metrics trade at 1.4x to 1.8x, roughly +90% higher than today’s valuation. See below for a comps sheet. CLBK sticks out like a sore thumb.
You can also make a strong case that the combined company should trade at a healthy premium to peers. The loan book has been among the cleanest in the peer group for well over a decade. Earnings growth should also well outpace peers as excess IPO capital is deployed into loans and share repurchases. And at roughly $20 billion in assets, the combined bank will be 40% larger than peers, bringing greater scale, operating leverage, and trading liquidity. All of that suggests a premium, not a discount.
Why are these stocks trading here? One, it’s the complexity. This is a second-step IPO plus transformational M&A wrapped into one — not easy to analyze. Two, investors screening for banks are still looking at pre-deal metrics. After acquisition-related cost saves, the bank will comp more closely to peers at nearly double the valuation. Three, management and bankers need to set a valuation that incentivizes participation in the offering. Four, merger arb funds likely anchor to the proposed takeout price, overlooking the underlying economics of the business. Finally, the market still seems to ascribe CLBK a minority discount. That made sense with a 27% float and MHC structure, but the discount goes away entirely post-IPO. In short, the market seems to be looking backward when it should be looking forward.
And what if the shares do nothing? Management will continue buying back stock. At a healthy discount to TBV, repurchases will be accretive to book, further exposing the valuation gap.
Also important, unlike in many other conversions, IPO proceeds will not sit idly by on the balance sheet depressing ROE, as the company intends to allocate some of the proceeds immediately to the acquisition. Management projects +50% EPS accretion, putting pro forma valuation at ~10x 2027 EPS. Peers trade at similar or higher multiples despite having far less excess capital to drive EPS expansion.
Altogether, NFBK and CLBK seem very asymmetric. I think we will look back and scratch our heads on why they’re trading here.
P.S. This is somewhat complex. Feel free to reach out with questions.
Disclosure: Long CLBK/NFBK. Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.
@dirtcheapbanks @alluvialcapital @PhilTimyan @thebankzhar
@leevalueroach @blondesnmoney
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@IFGerryWimmer why does the CEO keep selling stock? Multiple times over the past few months?
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⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
iFabric - $IFA.TO
BEST PICK at $0.55
Last close: $4.79
Current return: +771%
📈I agree, a BEST PICK that still has lots of upside.
Juan Pablo Montero@jpmontero88
iFabric $IFA.TO I made this one of my top pick back in january at ~C$1.87. It ran past C$5, printed +288% revenue growth in a single quarter, and got independent clinical validation along the way. And it's still my top pick for the 2nd half, because the company continues to execute, and the re-rating i'm actually waiting for hasn't happened yet. Let me walk you through it 🧵👇
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The $CPRT data I track took a big step down this week. Not good. The pivot to whole car is also concerning.
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@TeaBagCapital how exactly are you tracking volumes? And how good is your data back tested vs. actuals? thank you
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$OLLI Closing at new lows... Store productivity deteriorating and the bull anchor of unit growth is a myth. Shorted at $135... still pressing
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@ragingbullcap Relentless insider selling by $MIAX management. Doesn't really inspire confidence.
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$ICE $CME $CBOE $MIAX
Could always be wrong of course but the prevailing sentiment that the moats of incumbent exchange operators are under siege right now from perps/offshore exchanges feels like one of the most ludicrously misplaced paranoias in recent memory. Recommend reading Q&A transcripts from the Piper Sandler Exchange conference if unconvinced of that.
Have been adding heavily to $MIAX which, as the OP notes, is now trading at an absurdly low multiple of EBIT and down ~40% over the last 5 weeks. Decline likely exacerbated by technical dynamics around pre IPO warrants being exercised. So we have technical selling + likely irrational fears resulting in an obscene multiple for a scaled and perpetual asset light tollbooth on endlessly growing trading activity. Smells like opportunity.
Have also added $ICE $CME $CBOE for a basket trade. Some of the best business in history are on fire sale while their fundamentals and network effects have never been stronger. DYODD
Moody@MoodyWriter13
When a high-quality stock falls sharply in a very short space of time, and you can find neither a company-specific nor a macroeconomic reason for it, then there are really only two explanations. Either it was simply too expensive before, or something is threatening the premium it had previously earned through its quality. And keep one thing in mind here. People tend to systematically overweight a brand-new danger that suddenly appears on the scene. Kahneman described exactly this heuristic. We do not assess probabilities statistically, but by how easily and how vividly a scenario comes to mind. The availability heuristic, it is called. A dramatic new headline is instantly accessible and emotionally charged, while the sober assessment demands mental effort. The result is that the brain overestimates the risk of the new and the spectacular and underestimates the familiar and the unspectacular. To this Kahneman added loss aversion. Losses hurt psychologically about twice as much as gains feel good. So a new threat activates two biases at once. It is easily available, and it speaks directly to the fear of loss. That is the perfect breeding ground for an overdone selloff. Derivatives exchanges are a prime example. Here a new product, or rather a new technology, triggered fear and panic. Perps and Hyperliquid. What is meant are perpetual futures, leveraged derivatives with no expiry date, and Hyperliquid, that decentralized crypto platform that trades them entirely without central oversight. The headline of 1.4 billion dollars in volume on SpaceX perps was precisely the kind of new, dramatic, easily available information the brain overweights. What got lost in the noise was that actual open interest stood at around 100 million, that the product merely filled the gap ahead of the SpaceX IPO, and that regular options on it did not even exist yet. It affects a niche segment, it is years away in regulatory terms, and fundamentally it barely matters. That is the sober view. Put differently, the market priced in a new, spectacular danger that, on closer inspection, hardly touches the actual business model. Exactly the bias Kahneman described, only this time with a price tag attached. A stock like $CBOE will, in all probability, trade higher a year from now than it does today. The business is of extraordinarily high quality. Anyone who wants to understand it will understand it. Instead, many retail investors prefer to try their luck in the technically demanding and highly dynamic field of AI hardware, where they probably hold no unfair advantage against better-informed and faster market participants. I myself am heavily invested in $MIAX. A fast-growing derivatives exchange that is, right now, building through its exclusive Bloomberg products exactly what is the crown jewel at CBOE. An exclusive, regulated index options franchise with SPX and VIX. At a share price of 37 dollars, MIAX trades at roughly 11 to 12 times estimated FY2026 EV/EBIT, well below CBOE at around 16 to 17 times. There are also voices that see prediction markets as a headwind for the derivatives exchanges. Two remarks on that. First, one has to be clear that derivatives are not a pure fun product for gamblers. The market needs them for hedging, including ETF providers and many other institutional players. Second, MIAX, after selling its majority stake, still holds 10 % of Robinhood’s prediction market. The company has therefore secured the upside while handing off the operating risk and the capital needs. A lean, royalty-like position that costs MIAX nothing further to hold. Days like today are exactly the kind of days these businesses are built for.
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@HedgeyeRetail Three years ago you were bullish Nike and loved their CEO. You were obviously wrong. Why should I listen to you now?
youtube.com/watch?v=nbaeh_…
YouTube
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$NKE fires CFO -- can I get an Amen??? Dude's forecast accuracy was simply horrible. New CFO from $PFE. Does not change that Nike is about to go into the biggest investment cycle in its history. It will likely pay off -- but not for 3-5 years. Until then it will continue to ceede share. Still Short NKE.
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@extremesb do you disclose comparable sales growth of your restaurants?
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Happy Belly Food Group Reports $19.3M in Q1 System Wide QSR Sales Up 80.4% Growth YOY $HBFG $HBFGG $HBFG.C 💚
#QSR $QSR $MTY.TO $BYD.TO $MEQ.TO $CSU.TO $TVK.TO $FFH.TO $ATD $ORLY $PATK $CAVA $SHOP $SHAK $EAT $BX $CM $DOL.TO $AW.TO $SBUX $MCD $SG newsfilecorp.com/release/297276…
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@michaelrbock @OpenAI this looks awful. only 57% correct for easy/simple tax returns? Why would anyone use AI to file their taxes?
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1/ The rivalry between OpenAI & Anthropic continues: GPT 5.4 is now the best model in the world at filing taxes (better than Opus 4.6)!
We Just ran TaxCalcBench on GPT-5.4.
56.86% of tax returns computed perfectly.
That's #1 overall: the first model to break 55%, surpassing Claude Opus 4.6 (52.94%). OpenAI reclaims the top spot.
Updated leaderboard:
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@AlderLaneEggs Marc you are one of the best short sellers of all time. On a scale of zero to ten, how much conviction do you have in your bearish Canada thesis? Is it fair to assume zero, since you're not actually short anything in Canada?
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How much do you have to pay these Arctic Mexicans to wear this garbage?
Matt in Vancouver@belligerentNuck
The Canadian Olympic outfits are as shitty as Canada in 2026. What a ridiculously sad and accurate metaphor for what this Country has become
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@DrJStrategy Global investors are disagreeing hard with your bearish view on Canada. the CAD has strengthened 2% since Carney gave his speech. It's stronger by 6% in the last year. Everyone thinks Canada is getting better.
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For the record:
What has Canada become?
Canada likes to boast about having one of the most educated populations on earth, but when it comes to Trump Derangement Syndrome it behaves like the global capital of political hysteria. What passes for “education” has curdled into progressive indoctrination so deep that basic objectivity and critical thought have become niche pursuits rather than civic norms. Carney’s Davos grandstanding about Canada as a moral superpower is a case study in this self‑congratulatory delusion, all rhetoric and posture, no serious reckoning with power or trade realities.
Common sense of the street suggests that Canada will pay a heavy price for this performance politics, yet now we get Doug Ford charging the hill as the obedient attack dog of the eastern elite, not the defender of Ontario’s real economic interests. It is a breathtakingly stupid strategy while the Ontario economy continues to tank, and instead of course correction we get more theatrical outrage and tribal signalling. Add to that the Bank of Canada, with Macklem dutifully shading monetary and economic rhetoric to fit our own polite, Canadian variant of TDS, and you have institutions reinforcing the same pathology rather than checking it.
What was once an objective citizenry has been reduced to a lap dog culture, yapping on command for the progressive elite and the globalist Davos crowd. Canada’s prosperity still hinges on a hard, unsentimental economic relationship with the United States, yet its political and technocratic class behaves as if hashtags, panels, and summit applause can substitute for leverage, bargaining power, and trade strategy.
Facts, not feelings, will settle this experiment, and on current trajectory Canada will discover that trading sovereignty for moral vanity is a very expensive way to learn basic geopolitical arithmetic. To be clear, Carney is playing a dangerous game.
Canada needs the U.S. far more than the U.S. needs Canada, and indulging TDS as the organizing principle of foreign and industrial policy is not just embarrassing, it is dangerous.
Bessent’s warnings should be taken with utmost seriousness; alas, they are waved away by a political class intoxicated with its own rhetoric. With even a moment’s reflection, one can see the pain of reality that awaits Canada if this trajectory holds. Facts matter, and Carney’s chosen strategy sits squarely on the wrong side of history; one could say he has willingly put Canada on the altar of the progressive, globalist cause and struck the match himself.
One of Confucius’s most enduring observations is that we gain wisdom in three ways: through reflection, which is noblest; through imitation, which is easiest; and through experience, which is the bitterest. Canada once had the confidence and seriousness to choose reflection first. Today, it seems determined to skip both reflection and intelligent imitation and head straight for the bitter lesson of experience. What has Canada become?
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@AlderLaneEggs If you really think Canadian mortgages are in trouble, that would be a huge deal for the banks. Since you’re so sure, does that mean you’ve bet against the bank stocks? Or is there something keeping you from taking that trade?
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Just one example of what is about to happen in Arctic Mexico
Shazi@ShaziGoalie
Forest Hill wasn’t immune. $19.7M list ➡️ $7.5M power of sale. Built in 2023. Sold in 2025. Nearly $12M erased in one of 🇨🇦 most “bulletproof” enclaves. Prestige doesn’t set prices. Markets do.
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@jasonjamesbnn Global investors think Canada is improving meaningfully. Look at the CAD strengthening. Look at all the Canadian bank stocks (up 30%+ LTM). Canada bears should seriously ask themselves how they missed this.
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US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent weighs in on Mark Carney's recent China moves and their conversations around trade with the US.
And as it turns out, Mark Carney might just be a geopolitical dummy after all.
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@MarketManiaCa CAD up another 60bps today alone. wow. Global investors are buying Canadian dollars. Clearly the global consensus is that the outlook for Canada is bright
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Household debt in Canada is now $3.21T.
Canada’s entire economy is $3.09T.
That’s the problem. ⚠️
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@AlderLaneEggs you have a right to your opinion. But the markets are sending a powerful signal that Canada's future is better under Carney. Look how much CAD and TSX are up in the last year.
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I just dont understand the appeal of Carney, he looks and acts like an arrogant Weasel .Every financial decision he makes puts Arctic Mexico further and further in a hole
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@AlderLaneEggs @SecScottBessent @AlderLaneEggs what are your best short recommendations in Canada? thank you.
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I am well aware as is @SecScottBessent .. not hard to see the dominos fall
Soupcan@JakeGobeil
@AlderLaneEggs Few realize how quickly Canada will dematerialize if Alberta leaves. The success of Alberta fuels the largess of the eastern provinces, without it, Canada will shake itself apart with it's reckless finances.
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@AlderLaneEggs I respect your work a lot, but you have been saying Canada will implode for over a year now. And since then the Canadian stock market and the Canadian dollar have strengthened substantially. What is happening?
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