Polybility
25 posts
Polybility
@polybility
When the market's wrong, we know. AI-powered probability analysis for Polymarket. Turn market inefficiencies into profit.
Katılım Ocak 2026
91 Takip Edilen164 Takipçiler
Polybility retweetledi
My app @Polybility was burning cash on prediction market analysis.
7 sequential API calls. Each waiting for the last to finish. One model inheriting one set of biases and I thought it is a good design.
Then I set back and asked: "What if I try to integrate @SentientAGI here?"
So I started looking into ROMA (Recursive Open Meta-Agent).
It decomposes the research question into subtasks and runs them all at the same time.
Planner -> parallel Executors -> Aggregator -> Verifier.
This integration means I can use older and cheaper models like Gemini 2.5 Flash at $0.15/$0.60 per M tokens where there is nothing to mess up.
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Descreasing costs allowed me to switch to a 3-model ensemble with blind parallel execution.
The 3 models (analysis brain):
Gemini 3 Flash (Google) - structured chain-of-thought reasoning
Kimi K2.5 (Moonshot AI) - similar benchmarks as Opus 4.5, buy cheaper more than x10
Grok 4.1 Fast (xAI) - contrarian reasoning, real-time data awareness
Polybility is now optimized for diversity.
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How it works:
All 3 get the same prompt. Same research. No market odds shown - prevents anchoring bias.
Run in parallel. Sort probabilities. Take the median.
Why median over mean? One rogue prediction at 95% drags a mean from 50% to 65%. Median doesn't move. Outlier-resistant by design.
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What changed:
Before: 7 sequential phases, 1 model
After: parallel decomposition, 3 providers, full reasoning visible per model
Users can click any model to see its thinking. When models disagree sharply, that IS the signal - genuine uncertainty the market hasn't priced.
It's not the smartest system that could be built.
It's the hardest to fool.
Polybility@polybility
Polybility just shipped its biggest architecture change yet. The entire analysis engine has been rebuilt from the ground up. Here's what's new👇
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Cost Efficiency
The entire ensemble costs less than the old single-model setup.
ROMA research runs on budget-tier models. Three ensemble predictions combined cost fractions of a cent.
Every analysis includes a full cost breakdown so you know exactly what you're paying for.
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Polybility just shipped its biggest architecture change yet.
The entire analysis engine has been rebuilt from the ground up.
Here's what's new👇
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Polybility retweetledi
So my friend @kurlyk27 created this app and of course I had to try it
I put by bet on CarbiB at 34% and right now the result is 100%
@polybility said, that pesentage of this event to happen more likely is 80%, when it was only 34% on @Polymarket
Easy money
Polybility@polybility
Polybility just crossed 361 markets analyzed. 74 already resolved. Time for a reality check. Overall accuracy: 60.9%. IMPORTANT! When the AI is really confident (>80%), the accuracy jumps to 75%. The market is still better overall. Not gonna pretend otherwise. But the AI shines when it strongly disagrees with the market. That's the whole point of blind predictions - no anchoring, no bias. Some highlights: - MrBeast views market: AI said 10%, market said 60%. Resolved NO (polybility.xyz/a/234) - Claude 5 release: AI said 12%, market was at 65%. Market now sits at 16 (polybility.xyz/a/25) - Went 100% on a CS:GO match. Lost. Esports are humbling (polybility.xyz/a/78) Biggest lesson: don't follow every prediction. Look for high confidence + big disagreement with the market. That's where the edge is. Still early. Still building.
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@jden_xx @kurlyk27 @Polymarket Always remember to DYOR before placing the bet, we are still in Beta 😎
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Polybility retweetledi
gm everyone ☕️
here's an update from using @kurlyk27's tool on polymarket
- 2 bets won so far
predictions were
- Drake not to perform in the super bowl & Mr beast latest latest video not to hit 35M views in 24hours and both won.
if you want to predict on @Polymarket and need directions you know what to do.
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@DuckWeider This prediction made by Polibility is wrong
I showed it, just to highlight that no one should trust those predictions blindly
Always do additional research before placing the bet :)
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Bro, I’m not very experienced with betting, so my view on this prediction might be wrong, but help me to understand.
Polybility tells me this bet is overvalued and that the real probability is around 5%.
But basically that would mean Logan won’t sell this card for more than $500k.
At the same time, you’re saying the card is already trading above $600k, which tells me the price should clearly be in the $500–600k range.
So I’m a bit confused about this prediction.
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Just a reminder not trust the results blindly. We are still in Beta phase.
Someone recentrly analyzed this market and I thought we found another great bet, but I started to investigate deeper and realized the card is already trading 600k+.
P.S. Over the last 24 hours there were 300 new trades analyzed.
Thank you all!
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Polybility just crossed 361 markets analyzed.
74 already resolved.
Time for a reality check.
Overall accuracy: 60.9%.
IMPORTANT! When the AI is really confident (>80%), the accuracy jumps to 75%.
The market is still better overall. Not gonna pretend otherwise.
But the AI shines when it strongly disagrees with the market. That's the whole point of blind predictions - no anchoring, no bias.
Some highlights:
- MrBeast views market: AI said 10%, market said 60%. Resolved NO (polybility.xyz/a/234)
- Claude 5 release: AI said 12%, market was at 65%. Market now sits at 16 (polybility.xyz/a/25)
- Went 100% on a CS:GO match. Lost. Esports are humbling (polybility.xyz/a/78)
Biggest lesson: don't follow every prediction. Look for high confidence + big disagreement with the market. That's where the edge is.
Still early. Still building.
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Polybility retweetledi
$400 turned into around $4,000 on my first ever @Polymarket bet.
Here's the post I made 3 days ago:
"Found an insane mispricing on @Polymarket
'Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?'
Market says: 6%. Our analysis says: 60%.
That's a 10x difference. And 16.6x if it resolves YES."
I found this with @polybility, put $400 in, and I'm now sitting at roughly 10x with the market still open.
Made a few mistakes during buying (first time on Polymarket), but I still consider this a huge win.
Will be posting more markets as I find interesting opportunities with Polybility.
Important: don't blindly follow every market on the site. It launched less than a week ago, still a lot of improvements to make.
Polybility@polybility
Found an insane mispricing on @Polymarket. "Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?" Market says: 6% Our Analysis says: 60% That's a 10x difference. And 16.6x in case it resolves - YES. Here's why: → Leaked Vertex AI logs suggest Claude 5 "Fennec" launching mid-February → Anthropic has ~24 days to claim the throne → Current leader (Gemini 3 Pro) only 26 Elo points ahead of current model → The market is 93% the new Anthropic release in February. → Anthropic wins ALL alphabetical tiebreakers vs Google, OpenAI, xAI in case of tie If those leaks are real and Anthropic releases new model which beats everyone (as it always does). This will resolve as YES in time.
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Found an insane mispricing on @Polymarket.
"Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?"
Market says: 6%
Our Analysis says: 60%
That's a 10x difference. And 16.6x in case it resolves - YES.
Here's why:
→ Leaked Vertex AI logs suggest Claude 5 "Fennec" launching mid-February
→ Anthropic has ~24 days to claim the throne
→ Current leader (Gemini 3 Pro) only 26 Elo points ahead of current model
→ The market is 93% the new Anthropic release in February.
→ Anthropic wins ALL alphabetical tiebreakers vs Google, OpenAI, xAI in case of tie
If those leaks are real and Anthropic releases new model which beats everyone (as it always does). This will resolve as YES in time.
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I NEED YOUR HELP!
It took me a while, but I finally built something and need your honest feedback, friends!
@polybility - an AI tool that predicts @Polymarket odds without being influenced by current.
The idea is simple: eliminate bias and find mispriced bets.
It's super early. I'm paying for all the AI credits myself, but I did not set any limits on the usage. Just need real people testing it.
What I need:
→ UI/UX thoughts (is it confusing? ugly? slow?)
→ Do the predictions feel reasonable?
→ Would you actually use this?
Be brutal. Roast it if needed. I'd rather hear the hard truths now than later.
Not financial advice obviously - it's an experiment. But if we can make the predictions accurate... we might be onto something.
Current stack: Polymarket + Gemini + Perplexity
Once I get access to @SentientAGI API this should improve the predictions dramatically. Their latest integration of Kimi would really make a huge difference.
Website link in BIO of @polybility
P.S. you are safe, you don't connect anything, just find the market and hit "Generate AI Prediction"
Polybility@polybility
What if AI could tell you which @Polymarket bets are mispriced? That's exactly what Polybility does. The AI predicts probabilities WITHOUT seeing current market odds. Why does this matter? Humans (and AIs) suffer from anchoring bias. If you see a market at 65%, your brain unconsciously adjusts around that number. Polybility's blind prediction eliminates this completely. The system works in two phases: • First, it researches what the LLM model doesn't know about the event • Then, a separate AI estimates odds without seeing what the market thinks The result? An independent probability assessment you can compare against market prices. When there's a big gap between AI prediction and market odds, you might have found an edge. Building this as a tool for Polymarket traders who want a second opinion that isn't contaminated by market consensus. More updates soon.
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@IMenlikovaOG @StoryProtocol Lokalhost always makes everyone excited
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you need to set a reminder for February 4
because @StoryProtocol is once again holding a real master class for us and our development on localhost 3000
last time they were setting up a vibration-based recipe generator, creating a user interface for swipe-based UX
now don't miss the next one, sign up👇
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Math-driven bot on Polymarket printed $400k in one month.
top profile: @k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP3R" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@k9Q2mX4L8A7ZP…
it auto-detects combinatorial arbitrage, computes VWAP execution windows, exploits non-atomic fills and order book depth.
firing off 500+ trades/week at tiny edges but compounding like crazy.
all from solving marginal polytope projections, no guesswork needed.
small inefficiencies, high precision, zero slippage tolerance.
if you're still checking YES+NO=1, you're the liquidity.
Roan@RohOnChain
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