PolymarketData

@StockSavvyShay Watch the funding rate. If longs consistently pay shorts to hold YES in political markets, that reveals how leveraged capital prices tail risk. something the binary price doesn't surface directly

Polymarket is launching perpetual futures letting traders go long or short any market with leverage around the clock. That moves the platform beyond prediction markets and closer to becoming a full-time speculative trading venue.

@arkham Most PM 101s skip oracle risk. When Polymarket and Kalshi diverge on the same event, part of that gap is resolution-source uncertainty, not belief. They move differently and don't always converge at close

Prediction Markets 101 Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi turn probabilities into prices, where markets - not polls - forecast the future. From smart contracts to oracles, here’s how it all works.

@business Three wallets pre-funded days out, dormant until hours before the arrest. Position concentration from fresh accounts on a single event is detectable in the data, separately from whether the binary price moved. Those two signals don't have to coincide.

A US Army soldier was charged with using classified information about the timing of the capture of then-Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to make more than $400,000 trading on Polymarket’s prediction market, the Justice Department said. bloom.bg/3OWEkY8 📷: XNY/Star Max/GC Images/Getty Images

@GACryptoO @Polymarket If you're backtesting anything that uses CLOB depth, the migration creates a structural break. Tick structure and fee model both changed. Pre-migration and post-migration order book data aren't directly comparable

⚡️ Polymarket Exchange Upgrade Incoming @Polymarket is rolling out a major backend upgrade on April 28, 2026 🗓 Upgrade Time ➖ Starts: ~11:00 UTC ➖ Downtime: ~1 hour (trading paused) ⚠️ New Updates ➖ New CTF Exchange V2 (faster + more efficient) ➖ Rebuilt order book → fewer failed trades ➖ Lower gas fees & smoother execution ➖ Improved fee system & better order tracking 💰 New Collateral Token ➖ Introducing pUSD (Polymarket USD) ➖ Backed 1:1 by USDC (onchain verified) ➖ Replacing USDC.e 📌 What You Need To Do ➖ Approve one-time conversion to pUSD ➖ Approve new trading contracts ➖ Re-place orders (old ones will be cleared) 🛡Your balance stays safe ~ fully backed, no algorithmic risk 💬Wait For Updates..... 💙Like 🔄 RT

NBA holding out while MLB and NHL already signed makes sense. They've been the most aggressive major league on data licensing and IP enforcement for years. Expect them to push for contractual control over which outcomes are market-eligible, not just a revenue split. That negotiation runs harder than the others.

The NBA is in active talks with Kalshi and Polymarket about prediction market deals, FOS has learned. The NBA and NFL have remained the two main holdouts among major pro U.S. sports leagues after MLB and the NHL recently formed prediction market partnerships.

Audience diversification is a real liquidity question, not just a marketing one. PM engagement requires forming an opinion on outcomes you care about, which requires knowing the market exists. Sports and pop culture are the natural on-ramp. Harder question: does a casual browser who never trades actually improve market quality?

Prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket have a dude problem—and now they’re trying to woo women through matcha memes and “get ready with me” videos, @nancywalecki reports: theatlantic.com/technology/202…

@Diditaihuttu Good prediction markets with calibration track records are closer to collective intelligence than gambling. Polymarket's 2024 election prices beat national polls by months. That's information aggregation. Casinos don't do that

Coinbase and Robinhood shift from #Bitcoin to political betting. When your growth strategy is prediction markets instead of freedom tools, you're not building the future. You're building the casino the empire wants. 🎰

@APompliano @Kalshi Kalshi's regulated markets attract institutional hedgers. Polymarket's offshore book skews speculative with wider spreads. Research built on one doesn't transfer cleanly to the other. Worth being explicit about which dataset is driving the signal

Today ProCap Financial is partnering with @Kalshi to launch institutional-grade investment research covering prediction markets. Our agentic AI system will use Kalshi’s data to find unique & valuable insights to help investors make money. Subscribe: procapinsights.com

@CoinMarketCap Launching this the same week the NY AG sues Coinbase and Gemini over prediction markets is a very bold timing choice

LATEST: ⚡ Polymarket is expanding into perpetual futures trading, following reports that rival Kalshi is also planning to offer crypto perps.

@CoinDesk Coinbase and Gemini are US-registered with existing CFTC exposure. Polymarket routes offshore. NY AG can sue because jurisdiction over onshore entities is unambiguous. That's why Polymarket's offshore structure isn't incidental - it's load-bearing.

NEW: New York Attorney General Letitia James has sued Coinbase and Gemini over their prediction market offerings.

@RoundtableSpace Entries at 0c on steady-profit patterns usually means one thing: buying near-expiry contracts on events already priced near zero and collecting occasional mispricings when the CLOB hasn't updated. Not a new edge - latency arb on illiquid tail markets.

A NEW TYPE OF BOT MAY HAVE JUST APPEARED ON POLYMARKET. Steady profits, entries at 0c, and activity so strange people are wondering whether this is a new edge or something the market still doesn’t understand.

@scottmelker Liquid 60% markets getting levered are probably fine. Perping a 95% contract where the 5% tail gets 19x notional is where someone actually blows up

I believe that people should be able to do anything they choose with their money. But I also believe that adding perpetual futures to prediction markets and the ability to gamble on literally everything at anytime with leverage is probably a sign of end times.

@citrini Already happening. 15-min BTC up/down on Polymarket is a binary option, CLOB-settled. At this point "prediction market" vs "derivatives" is a CFTC category, not a product description. The lines dissolved before the regulators noticed

“What if we started a prediction market where you could predict the price of stocks?”

11/ We pulled all of this from the polymarketdata.co API - price history, volume, spread. Full Python code + deep analysis in the blog post: → polymarketdata.co/blog/polymarke… If you want to run this on the next European election, the data's there. What market are you watching next? 👇

10/ The broader point: Most people ignore Balkan politics. Too niche, too confusing, too far away. That's exactly why the edge existed. Polymarket's Bulgaria markets had smart early money, fragmented competition, and a correct call - weeks before the news caught up. Niche ≠ uninformative.

1/ Polymarket gave Radev's party an 83.5¢ win probability on March 15. It NEVER went below 77¢. Yesterday he won with a landslide. The crowd wasn't uncertain. The pundits were. 🧵