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@blockgraze When

does anyone know the price of one barrel of oil?

@donnelly_brent Single name realized was high but correlation was low so index realized was low. Dispersion desks took the index risk from specs buying puts and converted it to a correlation position.

Explain the gap between implied and realized vol this week please

@tylermacro10 @CRUDEOIL231 Think if we were carpet bombing then there would be videos circulating. “Shock and awe” played on CNN for weeks

@post555s @CRUDEOIL231 Whats their to say Theyre all being blown up (literally)

It’s the same old cycle. We get blasted with hopium from the London open through NY, only for reality to kick back in and oil to bounce right back up. Suddenly, everyone with an AI tool thinks they’re a geopolitics and oil expert, but they clearly don't get the first thing about attrition or propaganda. Brent just dumped over 200 pips on some comments from the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister trying to play the justification card. The interview was basically: "We'll do whatever it takes to protect our rights and our people. My message to everyone listening is that we're just defending ourselves." "This war was forced on us, and we have every right to fight back. This is a war chosen by the US and Israel, and we're going to defend ourselves to the max." Exactly. It was just a calculated move to use the US media to justify Iran's actions and a piece of propaganda designed to back the US admin into a corner. But these days, everyone just wants a one line summary—who actually bothers to watch the full interview? Right at this very moment, missiles are raining down on Doha and tankers are literally on fire. Look at the actions, not the words. If we had believed everything the Iranian Foreign Ministry claimed up until last weekend, this war wouldn't even be happening. And yet, here we are. #oott #iran

@omshanti08 3.3.26

BTFD class of ‘26

@DeepDishEnjoyer marketing/boosting on X works, I guess

some of us have which is why we are confused about the citrini reaction lol

@CharlesD353 Well know and widely agreed that the point of going skiing is in fact the apres-skiing

When I left college and started in finance, before long a ski trip was suggested and I went for the first time, and I learned the reason "everybody" (rather, many people) skis. The answer isn't some conspiracy theory, it's just that skiing is awesome. One of the most fun things

@longironcondor Growing up is accepting the series was always trash

What a joke. A great book series ends up being a publicity stunt for grifters

@apralky Long game

There's something interesting happening in European politics right now, and you've probably overlooked it: As you might be aware, the incumbent President of France, Emmanuel Macron, is very unpopular -- with favorability frequently below 20%, he's at the bottom of essentially all groups of comparables. It's no surprise then that his camp is widely expected to be replaced at the upcoming April 2027 presidential election. Opinion polls show Jordan Bardella, the leader of the "far-right" National Rally (Rassemblement National), as the clear frontrunner. Bardella's expected victory, under normal circumstances, would have been a rare opportunity for his party to meaningfully reshape European economic policy: the terms of Christine Lagarde (President of the European Central Bank, the top monetary policy official in Europe), François Villeroy de Galhau (Governor of the Bank of France, the top monetary policy official in France), Philip Lane (member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and the chief economist, plausibly the most influential ECB technocrat), and Isabel Schnabel (member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank) are all set to expire shortly after the 2027 French presidential election. This means that Bardella would have been able to appoint the next Governor of the Bank of France, and have influence over the appointments of the successors to the three top ECB officials, including the President, who make up half of the 6-member Executive Board and shape the European Central Bank's policy agenda. Aware of this, Bardella has periodically signalled a somewhat heterodox vision he'd like reflected in his picks. The prospect of a right-populist running amok in the Eurosystem naturally alarmed the European bureaucracy, and so they're stepping in. In a surprising and uncommon move last week, François Villeroy de Galhau announced that he's stepping down before his term ends at the Bank of France. He of course avoided the obvious political implication, citing personal reasons as his motivation. But the move will ensure that Macron gets to be the one to decide his successor for a 6-year term, denying Bardella. In a similar unusual fashion, reports have started circulating that Christine Lagarde, the President of the ECB, is also planning to step down in 2026, a year early -- which would clear the way for the usual "horse-trading" for Executive Board positions to take place a year early as well, keeping France's say with Macron in all three of the upcoming appointments. Instead of helping pick half of the Executive Board members, Bardella will have helped pick none. The maneuver has recent precedent -- in 2024, ahead of a telegraphed right-wing victory in an upcoming legislative election, the Austrian National Bank had its governor appointed more than a year in advance of the job's actual mandate, violating the country's public governance guidelines, but ensuring it was the outgoing incumbent that got the final say. Anyway, are you still a believer in democracy? Because at our age it's marginal right

Xi Jinping’s daughter btw

@alreadydawn That “finance firm” has a *very* special connection to a ***very*** special crypto firm 🤐

>be Howard Lutnick >CEO of huge global finance firm >Wikipedia early life section checks out >2/3rds of his employees burned into ashes on 9/11 >”missed” the sacrificial ritual cuz took kid to school >amazing coincidence >lived right next to Epstein mansion >also amazing coincidence >took “family” to Epstein island >specifically listed the ages of the children he took along >what_a_weird_thing_to_say.jpeg >enlisted by Trump to serve as Secretary of Commerce >”Pdfiles and Pdfile protectors, assemble!” >Epstein investigation underway >laughs hysterically on camera when he hears mentions ofchild abuses These are the people who run GAE, the Global “American” Empire

@shortbus_ace Cause a brother got needs

How does she still have a job?

@matthew_sigel 🎉

GOOGL selling 100-year debt 😯

@apralky Fed would be far more effective if they made every phd pick up the phone and call people all day. Data is king, models are never the bottleneck.

The populist notion that central banks can be assumed to be overstaffed just because each employee delivers no visible first-order benefit is possibly one of the most destructive innovations in public discourse recently. Monetary & financial regulatory policy decisions affect outcomes measured in trillions of dollars! Minor improvements in forecasting, modelling, and design therefore have enormous expected social value. The marginal return to investing in the salary of a PhD economist at the Fed or the ECB can plausibly be orders of magnitude higher than that of paying a nurse or a teacher or some other people’s champion direct-service provider.

@alz_zyd_ Is the prestige in the room with us now

An example of "lagging prestige" is that econ PhDs are still, for some reason, viewed as much higher prestige than other business school PhDs (finance, mkting, accounting, etc.). However, the econ PhD job market is collapsing, and PhD admissions are getting much harder

@Merridew__ 100 year, 0.25% coupon, will be 5x oversubscribed

@apralky Gen Z down horrendous

Everytime I travel I'm reminded that basically nothing aside from the satisfaction of biological needs comes close to being as fun as just being online, which is essentially costless now. The billionaires spend their increasing-% of daytime on the same twitter as you etc. This is approaching ~100%! Thank you capital for delivering this outstanding humanitarian triumph

@FangYi11101 Academics (as a slur)

why’s there so much drama in the ai industry even in the tiny labs? is it just more visible because everyone is terminally online?

@DeepDishEnjoyer Is this the line for universal basic girlfriend

The everything bull market was a 18 year long sociological experiment conducted by Harvard University. The study is now complete, thank you for your time.