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Trading wisdom I wish I'd known from the start - passing these lessons forward:
You need 2 things to win in active trading:
- Way to measure momentum
- Way to tell the difference between current session and an average session
- Some tools: market profile, vwap, time & sales, depth of market, other quant tools
But at the end of the day, its just tools. If you don't have an above average brain, you won't win regardless of tool. In general, the more desperate you are for money or results, less likely to succeed.
You must devote few years to understand the governing dynamics.
The most difficult trades are the most profitable and make least sense.
In a BULL market, buying the most expensive company is better bet than searching for discounts.
In a BEAR market, selling the cheapest company is better than waiting for values.
You won't have a great idea every other day, but when you do, you should hodl.
It's easy to be pessimistic, its easy to be bearish on everything and find flaws.
Its hard to find solutions. Optimists make changes. Optimists make money.
Before you win, you must learn to lose.
Your ability to trade well depends on your ability to read market momentum. Your ability to read market momentum comes down to how experienced you are and how focused.
Stocks are like waves. They don't go linear. They go down up down up.
There are 4-5 kind of issues a trader faces in his life. Right diagnosis is important for correct cure.
Which one of this is you?
- Cluelessness
- Psychological drama
- Analysis paralysis
- Execution issues
- Weak minded
Benefit of short term active trading is you can memorize several thousand patterns within a short span of time if you pay attention. Remember: you pay attention. Attention pays you.
Once the water has gone under the bridge, it ain't coming back.
There are only 2 ways to get out of the hole you are in:
1) Take the loss
2) Double down and dig out of it
Your moment to moment thinking and mindset will decide rest of your life.
You will not make any money buying same stocks that everyone else buys, paying same price that everyone else pays. You must do your own analysis, pay very cheap price in accumulation phase.
A person whether talented or not, is held back in his place by his biases. You must not have any bias and see the world for what it is to make good call.
Issue is when you quit. When you quit, you truly lose
If you observe same thing for long time, it will reveal itself no matter how complex. But your observation must be unbiased.
How to know an investment is good:
Check her from front, back, top, and bottom. Do your due dilligence. Dont rely on others to do it for you.
Basically you want to find out about the value zone. If you don't know value zone of your investment, you are playing with fire.
Closer you buy to value zone, safer you will be and more potential for profit.
Charting is not a specific knowledge. Specific skill and knowledge is to be able to read market momentum through price, volume and volatility aka order flow.
The Question is never about haves and have-nots. Or equality. Its about the experience. And price to have that experience.
A High price must be paid for highest of experiences.
You are not what you were 5 years ago. Or last year. Or even yesterday.
You are what you are right now
Stop regretting the past. Life starts now. Start living it now.
What has happened in the past will happen again and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, it is human emotion, solidly built into human nature that always gets in the way of human intelligence.
Observe what majority people say.
When they buy or say we are going up, sell.
When they sell or get very fearful, buy.
Rinse and repeat.
Don't be so obssessed with inverted charts and non inverted. Remember, markets like simple
More complicated your analysis, less profitable it is.
If your wealth increases suddently but your wisdom does not, you will not keep that wealth. This space is not about getting lucky. This space is about learning a new set of skills and capitalizing on those skills for the next 10 years and printing money with extreme prejudice while everyone else cries for UBI.
If you're around sheep, you'll become a sheep. If you become the strongest sheep, you'll still lose to the average lion. If you're given a choice to train with sheep or train alone then train alone until you find those who can beat you and then learn from them.
When you insist you want to be right in the market at all costs, you're saying "I know more than any other trader. I have more funds than any other trade. I am more talented than any other trade." You know how ridiculous it sounds? 😂
To be a GOOD TRADER, you need:
Medium to longer term context and shorter term execution talent.
3 factors:
- Price
- Volume
- Volatility
Your success in trading world resides in your ability to adapt to what you see. This is directly related to your ability of keeping your losses small.
Remember all tools whether they are RSI or volume profile, they are simply painting a picture of past
They are not going to predict. Thats your job.
There is a moment in time when risk is very small.
If you cannot find this moment, there's no point trading.
Investing is better. Those who can find this brief window of time should only actively trade.
It's okay to be wrong.
Its NOT okay to stay wrong.
You get fucked not when you are wrong.
You get fucked when you stay wrong
All TA is not created equal. You ignore who's active in market.
You dont want to know who's buying or selling and how much.
You ignore what's driving market in your time frame.
You assume all trend lines and all moving averages are the same at all times.
Trading with scared money is one of the quickest ways to blow your account.
Any investment or trading strategy should be extremely simple but not any simpler. Remember more complex your strategy...less likely it will work.
Trend is like a freight train. It shifts but it takes a lot of time and power.
It's very important to figure out how to make profit being right only 40-50% of time or even less. You don't control the outcome.
The only thing you control: Can you sit tight when things are in favor and can you cut loose when things go against you?
Lets say you buy and market immediately falls: 8 out of 10 times you will be fcked.
In trading you must understand 2 things very intimately: Will others buy after you buy.
Will others sell after you sell?
If the answer is no, then don't do it. In investing, it doesn't matter. But in trading, it's a cardinal sin if you buy and no one else buys after you.
The thing is if you watch charts and don't understand context, you get shaken out. Don't trade what you don't understand.
If whale trades 1000 lots, they don't buy or sell 1000 lots. They buy 10,000 and sell 9,000 and do it in seconds.
Main issue with low volatility is large traders stop trading so now you can see the flow. But when they are back in market, they use various scams to "hide" their moves and you get fcked.
Ideal time to buy a stock is always when many have been fucked in it. In heat of battle, when many lay dismembered is the best time to enter.
At the end of the day, you own nothing but your attention. Once you lose it, you're nothing more than a cheap cuck.
Some of these people really do not believe they can win under a competitive, capitalist style system based on their merits and talent alone. They strongly believe only way they can win or get equality is thru a socialist system. This cannot be farther from truth.
Trading is easy. Managing self is harder.
All sessions are alive and are unique. No 2 sessions are alike.
A common cuck indicator junkie thinks his indicator works in all markets at all times.
Not true.
an RSI of 70 doesn't mean same thing every dayevery day context and drivers change.
Always serve others.
always give back.
always fill your own cup up so much.
you can spill it into others glasses.
always remember how you make money.
always remember to pay it forward.
always be grateful so that you can achieve true happinesss.
Most of you are not capable of imagination & independent thinking. You're running on useless emotions . You don’t even own these emotions, they have been installed by external forces who wanna use you for their end.
all cognition is a result of elimination of noise
keep reducing noise until you reach which of which there no whicherworld is designed to increase noise
Your job is reduce noise every day
Have a vision and dream greater than your current existence if you want to rise above.
Your job as a trader is not to draw lines with crayons or plot inverted triangles.
It is your job to figure out one thing and 1 thing only: Is the price being quoted by market fair or unfair?
To understand auction, understand when price goes down it means inventory is avilable now (supply)when price goes up, it means there is no inventory (demand).
Poor people often have very strong biases, they are very judgmental and emotional. They fail to see the world in an unbiased way and as a result they stay poor for several decades.
You will start noticing before you make money you must stop losing money and before you can stop losing money, you must stop getting fcked.
All support, resistance are dynamic. To assume all support and resistance are static is fool's play.
Always know your time frame
Don't panic shit on intraday market aciton if your time frame is 30 years and don't hold the bags for rest of your life if your trade was intraday.
Remember all bags are born as day trades which turn into bad investments.
Market is random walk. Alpha is extracted over the next 1000 trades, not in 1 trade. Just never bet the house. Your job is to show up tmrw.
to win in trading first stop making stupid meaningless trades,only trade when you have a reason.
Don't have a reason? go find a reason.can't find a reason? Quit trading.
this is how markets are:
they are designed to scare the shit out of you.
this is why they work
You flinch, you lose
At the end of the day nothing matters, things, stuff, money, al this is not what matters
a good life can only be measured in terms of worthy goals and progressive realization of them.
this is what separate men from animals
Consciousness is a vehicle to explore.
As long as you own your consciousness, you wouldn’t have to worry about anything.
There are no limits or boundaries for those who own their consciousness. Don’t lose it. Don’t let it be stolen.
Remember the cardinal truth about market: It goes where it can do most business.
Be conscious when learning. Disregard the results. But document the process.
Good trading is all about being good at “odd man out”
GDP is best indicator if policies are working a growing GDP indicates country is progressing economically, its virile, good days are ahead.
a weakening GDP is often a precursor to recessions, that winter is coming.
If you have conviction, do it. don't worry about opinion or results. if you don't have conviction, don't do it, despite the popular opinion.
Top Trading errors:
- trading against the trend (cardinal sin)
- lack of focus
- lack of patience
your intuition is far more powerful than your intellect (by a factor of 1000). Intuition will guide you to what the market wants and let you anticipate and react to her
if your time frame is dozens of years, a correction of 10% shouldn't bother you.
if your time frame is a few seconds to minutes, a correction of 10% shouldn't bother you.
it's those in the middle who get crushed.
Strongest and earliest odds of trend reversals are when a trending market falls back in prior balance.
Time is ur friend in market . Time in market > timing the market
People who have money don't think like those who don't have money. People who are successful at their game don't think like people who are not successful.
Good traders are opportunistic, they flip flop.
Bad traders are pigs. Good investors are dead (means they don't do anything, they HODL)
Market is the cheapest when there is fear.
Market is the most expensive when there is no fear.
Your life will be where your energy is
To come out of gutter, raise your energy.
Everything else comes later
Don't fight the process.
If you are learning your losses will narrow and your win days will increase.
If this doesn't happen, don't blame the markets or the furu.
Keep at it. It will come to you. You will know when you gain 'unconscious competence".
The greatest flex is having inner peace, reporting to no one, owning where and with who you spend time on
The greatest wealth is health. The greatest joy is having no expectations.
Informed players provide liquidity. Uniinformed players consume liquidtiy.
Extreme prices creates sentiment.
Sentiment creates bag holders.
Bag holders create extreme prices.
No one is going to think for you.
No one is going to press the button for you.
No one is going do it for you.
You have to do it yourself.
As a trader your job is one and only one:
Its to figure out if buyers or sellers are more active and motivated
A loss is not a loss in 2 circumstances:
You dont take it
You have gained something from it
Market won't go to where you want it to go. She will go wherever market maker has least to lose.
Weak men will avoid the short pain by making short term decisions which are bad for long term. Short term they gain small benefits but wreck the future permanently.
Your job is not to chase the current thing
Let everyone else do that. Your job is to figure out where the puck is gonna be in a few months from now.
Watch your thoughts carefully as you are becoming that every day whether you notice it or not.
Trading is not dealing in certainty. It’s dealing in uncertainty
Good trading needs 3 things :
1. Context (which way wind blows)
2. Levels (knowing where cucks are positioned)
3. Execution (not pissing against wind)
Good ideas will take care of themselves. Bad ideas will not.
No one can predict market. You can only react to market - based on your skills and flexibility.
Volatilitiy is designed to make you scared.
True colors show under pressure.
The dilemma of the unknown.
Only the unknown can give any new experience - good or bad. Yet we are scared the most of the unknown.
If you take risk & lose, it's far better than you never took risk and never won.
There are no absolute wrong or right.
Don't think in terms of price.
Think in terms of value.
Think in terms of possession.
Do you possess scarce assets? If you do, then worry about what price you paid and what price they are right now.
Basic principle of investing is same as planting a tree
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago.
Second best time to plant a tree is today. No matter how small your tree, plant one today.
Remember, market can do anything at any time to anyone.
Never explain, never complain
You just need to observe everything with an open mind. Question everything. But mind must not be so open that it falls out.
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