Philippe Papin

In addition to the winter storm in the Northeast, another winter storm may develop and impact much of the Deep South early next week. Here is our first Key Message about that potential winter storm.

@danncianca The tricky thing with #KMUX is it’s an elevated radar at ~3500 ft. Lowest scanning pattern is 0.0 degrees to account for the radar elevation, but likely still misses surface based features especially in valleys.

@pppapin CC looked really interesting when it came onshore, but not so much over SV. That's what got me.

Given relative rarity of tornadoes in Central CA, wanted to share radar loop of cell that produced the Scotts Valley EF1 #tornado yesterday. As cell moved ashore at 115pm PST, it formed a hook, low CC area, & a BWER near Scotts Valley. Fascinating evolution on #KMUX radar. #CAwx

Tsunami Warning 1 for areas of OR & N. CA: See tsunami.gov for alert areas. M7.3 045mi SW Eureka, California 1044PST Dec 5

TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT COASTAL NORTH BAY TO DAVENPORT INCLUDING INSIDE SAN FRANCISCO BAY for Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, North Bay Interior Valleys, San Francisco, San Francisco Bay Shoreline, San... till 5:15 PM PST mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=2024…

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on Saturday (Nov. 30)! Here are a preliminary summary and track map of the season's tropical cyclones. NHC will be working over the coming months on completing the Tropical Cyclone Reports for all of this year's tropical cyclones. nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.…

A 1/4th of the way through my @JetBlue flight from FLL➡️SFO, but choosing the window seat has payed off. Beautiful view of Lake #Okeechobee just after sunrise. Most interesting thing are waves in the shallow fog streaming off the lake. Maybe a weak Undular Bore? ✈️☁️🌊🌅#FLwx

Guess it is as good of a time as any to say it is my 1st week as a Senior Hurricane Specialist @NWSNHC. Last month marked 4 yrs since I started at NHC & it has been an incredibly humbling/fulfilling experience. An honor to keep doing what I love, to help save lives & property🌀

9AM CST Nov 17: #Sara makes landfall along the coast of Belize, near Dangriga. Heavy rainfall is spreading inland over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the latest information visit hurricanes.gov

4am EST Thu 11/14 Key Messages on Tropical Depression #Nineteen . Extremely heavy rain will cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, especially northern Honduras. More: hurricanes.gov

@hwind Thanks!

@pppapin Our record has Sandy with 5026.15 TJ. 2012 had a total of 14566.7 TJ, so Sandy's contribution is 34.5%! You can see the 2012 curve (upper brown line) dramatically trend upward in late October. That's all Sandy. Well, 25.1 TJ is due to TS Tony 🙂

With #Rafael dissipating, the year-to-date North Atlantic ACE is now 33 units above the 2002–2024 average. Interestingly, the track integrated kinetic energy (TIKE) remains near normal.

The #ECMWF is getting a significant upgrade today (IFS Cycle 49r1) beginning with the 06 UTC run. Changes include: 1) Improved Ensemble Data Assimilation (EDA) run at higher horizontal resolution. 2) Ensemble switch from SPPT to SPT. Details: ecmwf.int/sites/default/…

📡Colorado from 22,000 miles up❄️ #COwx

#Rafael is now post-tropical, but not before pushing 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season to NOAA's "extremely active" classification. 2024 is 11th extremely active Atlantic season in satellite era (1966-onwards). Others are: 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2010, 2017, 2020.

Nov 9: Swells generated by #Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast the next few days. Make sure to check the latest beach forecast at weather.gov/beach

And here is how the NHC track forecast evolved for #Rafael over the same time frame. This is a rather dramatic shift left, but necessary when it became evident the ECMWF solution would be the correct side of the bifurcation point. End of thread.

The end result is this narrow ridge will capture #Rafael, causing it to turn slowly westward over the next several days. The steering COL is N of Rafael, with light westerly mean deep-layer flow over the TC. This GFS pattern is now similar to the ECMWF from several days ago.

A couple days later, how did the #Rafael track pan out? Well, it will end up on S side of the bifurcation zone, & old #ECMWF was close to clustered ens guidance now. #GFS performed poorly. Let's evaluate the hypothesis, did upstream synoptic flow pattern lead to this change?