Jack Forehand

“Risk looks highest when returns are best.” In our latest @excessreturnpod, we sit down with legendary fund manager David Giroux. We discuss why the S&P 500 is nothing like the past, Nvidia’s moat may be shrinking, and the most overvalued part of the market isn’t the Mag Six.

Can The Mag7 Continue to Grow? $MSFT $GOOGL $NVDA $TSLA $META $AMZN $AAPL I continue to be bullish on their new innovations creating digital infrastructure that replaces physical infrastructure, lowering costs and increasing value for users. High profit margins allow for innovation rates far above what was historically possible. But historically growing at high rates was also impossible for such large companies. Which way do you think these companies will go? Listen in to @practicalquant and I discuss on the incredible @excessreturnpod.

"Not only did they cut, but they did surprise cuts. And this is from the same guy who 40% ago had used the term irrational exuberance to describe the stock market. He was cutting into a stock market that was up 40% from when he made those comments." Andy Constan on how the Fed reaction to LTCM added fuel to the tech bubble.

"Growth is bad in finance." -@MarcRuby Marc Rubinstein breaks down why on @excessreturnpod, including what it means for private credit, banks, and your portfolio. New episode out now! youtu.be/tEL92UnZW5o?si…

There has been a lot of debate about how to adjust traditional value metrics in a high intangible world. Elena Koziaeva explains how Bridgeway approaches the problem differently by de-emphasizing value and putting more weight on sentiment.

“The reason why a bubble regime is so difficult is because it plays precisely on human nature.” In the first episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down what history teaches us about bubbles and what those lessons might mean for today’s AI-driven market. Topics covered: • Why bubbles are almost impossible to identify in real time • The root conditions that can turn into a bubble • How escalation events push markets into dangerous territory • What 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, bonds and AI have in common • Why the Netscape moment may rhyme with today’s AI moment • How Long-Term Capital helped fuel the final phase of the tech bubble • Why AI capex and semiconductor expectations matter so much • The biggest mistake investors make in bubble regimes

For anyone looking for audio links for the new show, they are here: Spotify: bit.ly/4v5veb9 Apple: bit.ly/4dhsYWJ

I shit post bubble. I long form nuance youtu.be/XXS28h0Jvh0

"I've always felt that the line between growth and value is a strange one because a business that grows profitably is more valuable than a business that doesn't grow." Chris Davis on why growth and value were never meant to be opposites - and how the opportunity can shift between them

"Canals were the most obvious losers from the railway mania, and they did lose in the end. But actually, you did better investing in canal stocks between 1845 and 1850 than you did in railways." Edward Chancellor on what railroads in Britain can teach us about AI.

Links to Subscribe on audio platforms: Spotify: bit.ly/4v5veb9 Apple: bit.ly/4dhsYWJ

Really excited to launch our new show First Principles with @dampedspring Many shows offer opinions on the market and economy. We will focus on the principles that drive them. In our first episode, we discuss what history teaches us about bubbles. bit.ly/4dncJHE

We look at what’s happening in the market and then seek to understand why. That ordering matters. Many investors begin with the explanation and then look for prices to confirm it. Informed Momentum starts with market behavior and then tries to understand the message. Thank you to @practicalquant for doing an excellent job capturing the philosophy behind our process and why adaptability is so crucial in today’s markets. Click below for a great recap of our conversation on the Excess Returns podcast. excessreturnspod.substack.com/p/price-is-tru…

"The last thing I want is a regular dividend." Chris Bloomstran on what Berkshire should do with its big cash pile - and the lessons about deploying cash that Buffett learned from 2008.

I had Edward Chancellor, my former GMO colleague, on "The Intangible Economy" today. I consider him the world's foremost expert on capital cycles, and it was great to get his take on the current AI capex boom. @chancellor_e Spotify: bit.ly/42xaHzT Apple: bit.ly/4dBWXtQ

How great is this... amazing conversation @bogumil_nyc and @ckaiwu, the cross-overs between your disciplines, this is excellent to hear you explore out loud.

"They want the stocks to be small now when we're ranking them, but they also want the stocks to have been small a year ago." The existence of the small-cap premium has been one of the most debated ideas in factor investing. Elena Koziaeva explains Bridgeway’s research showing why the way we define “small” may change the answer.

"I'm trying to find Tom Brady not in college, not in high school, but in fifth grade midget football." Ian Cassel and Chris Mayer on finding great micro-cap stocks

"They've been paying for 15% growth, 30 times earnings, 40 times earnings, 50 times, they don't care. And they're ignoring that there's all these bargains out there where you can get 15% growth for half to a third of the valuation." Rich Bernstein on the opportunities outside tech.

TALKING BILLIONS: @ckaiwu Kai Wu: Intangible Assets: The Dark Matter of Finance — The Invisible Forces Driving Company Value Why the Balance Sheet Misses Most of What Makes a Business Worth Owning What if the balance sheet is an incomplete map? Kai calls intangible assets "the dark matter of finance" — and shows why Buffett quietly evolved from cigar butts to brand, IP, and network effects. New episode of #TalkingBillions 🎧 Listen now. Thank you, @CultishCreative, for connecting us 🙏 Episode Sponsor: @fiscal_ai is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off (25% off Thursday, May 7th to Thursday, May 14th): ⁠fiscal.ai/talkingbillion…⁠

“It's effectively less than 50 companies in the S&P 500" In our weekly wrap, @practicalquant and @CultishCreative look at the best insights from our episodes with Ian Cassel, Chris Mayer, Jim Paulsen and Elena Khoziaeva: ☑️ Why great stock pickers are on right 49% of the time ☑️ Why today isn’t the 1970s ☑️ What AI means for software moats ☑️ Why tech is hiding economic weakness ☑️ The one change that revives the small-cap premium ☑️ Why the S&P 500 may be less diversified than it looks