@joinyellowbrick Just show them AQR's track record: they systematized allocating on the basis of trailing multiples.
(Cliff has amazing marketing alpha; he's provided a great service to DE Shaw L/S and similar non-tail short books)
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“Many unimaginative investors waited almost 10 years for the P/E multiples on their Bloombergs to mean-revert”
I’ll respond to this with what someone responded to me one time.
In the last five years you could’ve bought $NVDA and $MSFT at low-20x P/E, $META below 15x, $GOOGL below 20x.
Don’t confuse the behavior of bad investors with market reality
Bear Force 1@BearForce_Won
I cannot endorse this more. If your seat doesn’t come with a license to go deep, adapt your mental frameworks quickly, be extremely open-minded, and occasionally sound insane, you are probably in trouble long term. Many unimaginative investors waited almost 10 years for the P/E multiples on their Bloombergs to mean-revert without noticing that increasingly enormous companies were generating massive returns at increasing scale, which made that nearly impossible. This period is a version of that on steroids. That isn’t a determinative statement. The path does not have to be upward. But there exist right tails that require depth and imagination. If you can’t see them, you can’t understand the underlying asymmetry and therefore can’t have a properly calibrated lens to assess risk.
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@dennisihong @TidefallCapital The equity investors who’ve bid SABR have odd underwriting processes (that are not as diligent as marketed) while retaining long term capital.
The business likely belongs to creditors - something we’ll see evolve through various LMEs.
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Great to see you. Good AGM, strong management bench on display. CSU’s AI strategy is no silver bullet but incumbency gives them a shot at retention. Glad they’re not standing still. Less convinced by the public equity investments … cheap stocks mean little without cash flow control. Sabre is an interesting pick but business durability and management quality are question marks.
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113 Page $CSU.to 2026 AGM transcript.
drive.google.com/file/d/18sUYwE…
Doing a summary for clients, it's going to take a while!
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@dennisihong The US has been against any such redistribution efforts (post FDR).
Domestically, the tension is managed through the lack of density. It’s impossible for decision makers to feel the consequences of their actions - people can’t congregate at political leaders’ doorsteps.
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Dario’s worldview of high GDP alongside high unemployment can persist for decades without too much societal upheaval, as Gulf states demonstrate. Their enormous oil-driven GDP coexists with high structural unemployment among citizens, a tension managed by redistributing oil revenues directly to the population.
Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei: "AI will take us to a world where we have very high GDP growth and potentially also very high unemployment and inequality. We've never had a technology that's this disruptive. So the idea that we could have 5% or 10% GDP growth, but also, 10% unemployment, it's not logically inconsistent at all. It's just never happened that way before. And I'm really quite, for those both reasons, excited and worried. I have some engineering leads within Anthropic who have basically said to me, I don't write any code anymore. I just let Opus do the work and I edit it. There are still things for the software engineers to do, right? It's like, even if the software engineers are only doing 10% of it, they still have a job to do or they can take a level up. That's not going to last forever. The models are going to do more and more. " --- From "The Wall Street Journal" YT channel (link in comment)
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