@jasonschips Have you seen the White House technology sharing agreement with with Sweden
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$SIVE is on a speculative, unsustainable rally that is not backed by any fundamentals.
Healthy parabolic stocks like $LITE, $BE, $AXTI, $SNDK either pop and grind up following each earnings event as new information is introduced to the market and improves the fundamental outlook OR they sell a raw material or commodity whose supply/demand dynamics and price can be tracked publicly.
$SIVE is neither. The last earnings call was on February 26th, to which the market had zero reaction; however starting mid-March, $SIVE proceeded to run 2000%.
No fundamental news was released to warrant such a re-rating. The O-Net and Jabil R&D partnerships are not new. The news that is actually needed to move the fundamental value: commercial volume orders with real dollar values attached, did not occur. In fact, they restated their FY25 EBIT net loss, which got worse.
My bearish campaign against $SIVE is only beginning. The higher this speculative stock runs, the more people will lose money; we must keep the damage contained. Those purposely spreading unreliable information to increase the market capitalization of an illiquid microcap to inflate their own wealth at the expense of everyday investors must be held accountable.
My short report is coming soon.
Jason's Chips@jasonschips
" $SIVE can reach $80b because $LITE is $80b" has to be the dumbest and most dangerous investment thesis ever. People will lose their savings listening to all this misinformation. It's sad and needs to stop (I am starting an anti $SIVE crusade). 1. $SIVE is not a bottleneck (despite it being the poster child of the photonics bottleneck craze). A bottleneck, by definition, must be the company that constrains the production of a massive downstream industry. To constrain production, you must both own hard physical assets and hold a dominant market share position. Sivers has neither. Sivers is a fabless design company that relies on WIN for Foundry services, and with revenues of ~$30 million, they hold near zero market share in the massive datacom laser industry. 2. Supply chain analysis is misleading. In semiconductors (or any industry producing a durable manufactured good) switching costs are near zero while process power, cornered resources, and scale dominate. Therefore, "who has a superior product" is far more important than "who supplies what to whom." CPO external light sources require quality lasers meeting noise (linewidth and RIN) and power (400mW+) specs. $SIVE lasers are far inferior to that of larger peers like $LITE. 3. $SIVE valuation is comically detached from reality. On NTM metrics, $LITE trades at 14x EV/Revenue and 32x EV/EBITDA while $SIVE trades at 50x and 650x (!!) those same metrics. As a permanent AI infra bull, I fully agree that consensus is too conservative; however, they are not off by two orders of magnitude. The misinformation needs to stop. Let's help actually help retail understand what they own.
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Day Trade Idea: $SPX | $SPY
Upside: SPX 7500c | SPY 748c
Downside: SPX 7450p | SPY 743p
VIX 16.75 key level
- If we get continuation over pre-market highs can close the golden gate and head toward 7500, then +1 ATR.
- If we lose the range can revisit PDC / 10m 200 and then short trigger level.
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Options market keeps pricing a storm that won't land.
$VIX 16.8 vs realized 10.5. You're paying a 60% markup for downside insurance that hasn't paid out in weeks.
Philly Fed cratered negative, Services PMI missed, and SPX closed near highs with vol down 4%. That's not complacency, that's dealers long gamma crushing every dip while premium buyers bleed theta into deep contango.
Fear is the most overpriced asset on the board. Either the tape finally cracks hard enough to justify the vol bid, or sellers keep collecting rent into year-end.
I know which side I'd rather be on. Where's your break point?
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@MichaelPBento Also negative moc with no bid up after the fill makes me think we will get a -1 or -2% week soon
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That was not a bullish close.
$SPY kicked out a doji on the daily, additionally that doji was a solid green doji on the hollow candles which is a sign of upside exhaustion. It also appears to be putting in a Double Top with 5/14. The 4H chart (not shown here) also kept the 10DMA beneath the 20DMA and the two candles for today formed a Tweezer Top pattern.
Looking at the VIX, it closed flat today despite what should have been a crush into the holiday weekend, in fact it spent most of the day higher. The VIX1D (not shown here) also continues its breakout to the upside. This should not be happening moving into June as typically the VIX1D trends down through the summer. It appears that volatility is ready to break out again, and I would not be surprised to see the VIX above 20 again soon.
Looking at gamma after the closing bell, nearly ALL of that positive gamma built up at 745 and 746 across all expirations rolls off today as shown by the 0dte profile. RED FLAG.
Overall it looks like we are setting up to take out 730 next week. Everyone and their mother is expecting the "Memorial Day Bounce" effect to take us higher Tuesday, but this year has proven to be anything but according to the usual playbook so we may be in for a rare red day after Memorial Day. Despite the move up since Wednesday the options flow hasn't really supported it like it did at prior local bottoms during this rally. Whales seem to be loading up on June puts in a similar way to how they did Late February when everyone thought we couldn't go down too. It certainly seems like a deeper pullback may be on the immediate horizon.
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@MichaelPBento Every single “santa rally” or multi decade seasonality trend has been inverted by trump. I also hit the June 18 puts with size today as I feel the flow justifies it.
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@vighnaraj2022 Confused how to read this one— am I to take it the next three months are represented by high positive gamma up to 8600?
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Pitch your most HATED / ugly chart / down on its luck / terrible numbers / never going to work stock that you own... ready go
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@theficouple Rate up price down. Rate currently lower than all history , and was even lower before that and housing market still dogshit. Rates will go higher but asset value will plummet. If loan adjustable and collat to income of property this could molest you.
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Hot take:
Lock up as much 6-7%, 30 year fixed rate real estate debt as you can.
7-10 years from now?
You’re going to look like a genius.
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@rickjeff78 Nobody is actually degrossing anymore there is no selling there is only put buying and then eventual squeezes. Viva Las Vegas
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@testinprodcap I feel like unless you’re looking for a nice short term gain idk about this one.
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trump is giving everyone a generational entry into 30 year rates right before AI takes out like 50% of all jobs sending short rates to -10%
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@yieldsearcher Logic would prevail it is the overheat as the oil shock really didn’t do shit. Not to say that the oil shock shouldn’t affect the market, but rather that the oil shock has gotten worse as the market has gone higher, and has basically plateaued while market has gone lower.
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@FlowbyBobby Rugpull harder? Idk with the news constantly changing and negative gamma this shit is sort of just annoying me, struggling to get a read fully
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