Merri Hopkins
1.8K posts








The best Polymarket Quant bot for copy-trading with a 99.3% win rate. backtested strategy on 72M Polymarket/Kalshi trades to hit +$805K PnL on 27,000 predictions. bot doesn't gamble - it uses math and statistics in its algo to consistently hit 99% win rate. his algo decoded: 1. Mispricing formula based on 72M trades data, traders constantly overpay for cheap contracts (0.1¢–50¢) most of the edge sits in (80¢-99¢) contracts - that's the range where the bot mostly trades • formula: δ = actual win rate - implied probability bot applies this to every trade to find the edge. // 2. Expected value calculation EV tells you whether a bet is worth taking, regardless of the outcome of any single trade. • formula: EV = (P win × Payout) - (P lose × Cost) bot calculates it to understand if the trade is worth the risk. // 3. Kelly Criterion sizing most powerful position sizing formula ever discovered for gambling, trading and prediction markets it tells the algo what % of your portfolio to size into each bet to win long term. • formula: f* = (p * b - q) / b mispricing found → EV calced → kelly sizing → enter profile: polymarket.com/0x751a2b86cab5… start copy trading the bot with as little as $10 using Ares: ares.pro/wallets/0x751a… 2 more formulas behind its algo revealed in the article below ↓



@GuntherEagleman Civil war is not even a credible story in the movies. Also, don't be so quick to paint all those states blue or even purple. The US would have to recall its forces from around the world to quash a civil uprising, leaving it terribly vulnerable to defeat. Think it through.


If a civil war broke out tomorrow who would win and why?






























