Prometheus Capital

What did I say on $VSCO - 9% YoY growth!

@the_zack_zhu How did you manage to get the rental price?

In early March $SE Shopee Brazil rented out the biggest ever warehouse in the Brazil, it cost 1.9M per month in rent price! The warehouses is still in development stage, is expected to come online in the end of the year. Now, $SE Shopee now have 16 distribution/fulfillment centers online working. It's currently targeting at least 20% of fulfillment rate by year end, double from 10% in 2025. The fulfillment is still a rather early business of Shopee. - Note: Shopee SPX now process more parcels than MELI in Brazil.

$TMDX exposed to oil prices

@CarioCapital @GrowthThesis so they were lying? lol

@GrowthThesis No u didnt make that up

$FOUR i'm sorry but which ever intern included this slide in the deck needs to be canned immediately lol

$FOUR buybacks aren't the answer - have to delever or it's an easy short for institutions

Personal anecdote but $DUOL has started showing ads for me

2H26 top

@Abhishe58744202 i saw you collated the locations of the dark stores, i think they have a lot more dark stores than that don't they?

I mapped store-level inventory on Swiggy across Indian cities. Not city-level. Not category-level. Actual store-wise stock, discount depth, and inventory value. This changed how I think about quick commerce. 🧵👇 …-map-159766276384.asia-south1.run.app

Was trying to find new ideas but most charts look super ugly out there? Only seeing in energy and memory unless I'm missing something

@FundasyInvestor How do you know growth will accelerate significantly?

$FOUR Accumulation level trading zone the past 2-3 months, while the company has the one of the largest annual buyback programs being active since beginning Dec at 15-17% of the diluted MkCap… Company also is going to be reporting massive reaccelerating growth this year… of like 20% topline growth lows! It’s a different type of growth stock. It can put up 60% growth in NTM and also have enough capital to repurchase more stock in H2 2026… Outsider stock imo

Update: those $SNDK shares that $WDC hold are worth $4.8 billion now - they will be debt free when they liquidate them

Update: those $SNDK shares that $WDC hold are worth 2.7 billion now, meaning they have flipped to net cash = more buybacks incoming

@LogicalThesis @eliant_capital @ConnorJBates_ $FUTU then?

$KWEB -21% pullback, high volume candles push it up, lower volume pullback to 9EMA. $KWEB still +25% in trailing 1y performance CC @eliant_capital @ConnorJBates_

@FundasyInvestor is the world cup alone going to move the numbers that much?

$FOUR Valuation and modeling a stock price is a fun exercise. However, investors tend to model out bullish/bearish scenarios and put them as a single point, instead of simply visually looking at the drivers and statistical probability of outcomes For instance, how investors might think surface level on metrics and not take the whole picture into mind: 🟢OUPUT - Stock Price: $FOUR is even on 5-year @ Average 50 percentile stock price, exactly 🟢OUPUT - PE multiple: $FOUR trades at a 33 PE, a historical low. However, this isn't very optically "cheap" per se. It's still on the same valuation as some of the most entrenched growth names in the world like $MSFT $GOOG $AMZN. Many would pass it by on this analysis alone declaring, "this likely isn't worth the time" OR "the juice ain't worth the squeeze" However, this viewpoint doesn't look at a single historical input driver that got to that output to reverse engineer it. It also definitely doesn't project these forward. If you did, you'd end up with a rough confidence interval that houses the majority of the stock price outcomes that I see going forward: ⚪️INPUT - Revenue/Gross Profit: Stock trades at its lowest Price/Gross Profit ratio ever at 3.8x. Gross Profit ratios rose on first quarterly pro-forma results with Luxury retail added. 3 more additional quarters of incremental improvement Y/Y expected for 2026. Increasing margins at 30%+ forward pro-forma revenue CAGR... excellent. Dilutive though... ⚪️ INPUT/DRIVER - Capital Returns: Company has historically diluted via M&A. Weighted shares outstanding has increased 3x. However, the company at valuation lows has stated that $FOUR is one of the cheapest acquisition targets on the market and announced a 1-year repurchase agreement for $1 billion. Historically, they've fully utilized 75-90% of their buybacks within reason without rapid stock appreciation. In addition, the company just issued 2033 ~435M 5.5% EUR convertible bonds that totals over $500M USD capital, which represents 8% of the diluted shares outstanding today... ⚪️ INPUT/DRIVER - Net Income Margins: Looking at the bottom line margin structure, we can see that the Gross Profit margin increase passed along to unit economic EBITA margins, that adds back the acquisition cost write-downs, since I've established in the past that Shift4 has positive ROIIC. With this in mind, the trailing 6% net income margin and trailing 16% EBITA / 9% EBIT margins will need to converge to a much higher level, especially after you consider that last Quarter EBITA margin on a cyclically slightly better than average quarter (Q4 seasonally strongest) came in at 20%, 400 bps higher than the trailing metric and 500 bps higher than Y/Y margins. Net Income margins are likely to increase from here and real cash flows will definitely increase from here. Pro forma cash flow numbers will roughly cover the buyback (75-90% at least of it). Meaning that the $1B today in repurchases, funded from cash from operations, could sustainably provide a 17% annual return in per share growth at today's valuation. Hence management's desire to repurchase shares here. So on a surface level output, many investors see a flat 5-year performance, without looking at the compression in every statistical driving variable under the surface. - Historically low valuation with buybacks able to provide a 15%+ IRR on stock price - 30%+ forward growth - Highly cash flow business with heavy M&A and non-cash amortization costs - M&A provides 25-50% cheaper CAC than competitors ; Cross-selling opportunities ; Built Global processing rails over the past 5-years ; Diversified from 1 to 4 Key Vertical Markets over the past 5 years - Company is dramatically deleveraged with systemically higher margins than 5 years ago - 2026 World Cup in the USA is a huge organic one-time tailwind for 2026 with their stadium/restaurant/hotel combos around key stadium venues Even moving on the trendline from 2022 to 2028, you end up at $90 per share. This would imply even heavier valuation compression, with an active buyback that can provide 17% of diluted share-outstanding reduction... unlikely but possible. That's my low end. I sold a ladder of puts from $80 to $95 that averages out to $84 per share, expiring Jan2028. With that capital, underwriting a measly 9.5% appreciation, I purchased a ladder of calls from $65 to $75 with 80% expiring in Jan2028 and the remaining 20% expiring Jan27 If the stock price rerates quickly like I expect, I close the 2027 calls and close out all my Put exposure, leaving 80% of the calls that I can purchase in 2028 at an average of $72.50, with the added protection of having 1-2 years for this rerate to occur, like I expect In my personal finance journey, I have no other debt obligations besides my stock account. I am buying a 8-10% cash flowing asset roughly that is growing cash flow per share and the net income margin by 25-30% going forward, higher with buybacks. This is underwriting risks that I'm willing to take on my balance sheet. I have cash on hand and shares to cover any drawdown, leap options make further downside and more efficient repurchasing opportunities a bit safer, and I feel comfortable with it It's risky, I will not deny. I think that the reward outcome for being able to safely manage the short-term downside risk with an active buyback of this portion makes me comfortable enough to get the opportunity to GET PAID to take on this risk to buy $FOUR at a blended $84 price in January 2028 and have this pay me to own calls to buy the stock at $72.50, anytime before January 2028 as well.... Anyways, I hope you enjoyed this analysis!

@SixSigmaCapital Probably just a blip?

This is really, really bad. Total platform assets went down, cash sweep down, equity trading volumes down 37% MOM, options down 28% MOM, crypto down 12%. Jheez

Just saw $HOOD Nov update. Most metrics down MOM ~70% of revs come from options, crypto & net interest. Crypto vols down and Options down. Rates to decrease next year I still think $HOOD is one of the best risk adjusted shorts at some point. >70% downside in a down year

@TomSmith839 Is it even going to move the needle

Helps that pretty much every stadium runs on Shit4 $FOUR

@tickerplus This feature is only available for enterprise?

New feature available on TickerTrends.io Enterprise Select from hundreds of company level metrics and quickly view the correlation between alternative data sources and your target metric! (Example below for $RBLX)

@LogicalThesis What do you mean by hard assets? Like miners?

Over time I realized that there are gonna be many trades that work in the market But I always get punished when I try to long things that are outside my circle of competency Like for right now Hard assets and commodities logically seem like a no brainer long But it's not something I trade often. Idk the sector well enough. Im not an expert in the macro shifts there So I think its better I stick to where I am most comfortable

MS initiates $DHR at buy and top pick with $270 pt (street high) After a turbulent 5 years through COVID and demand normalization (+ inflation, tariffs, policy dynamics), we are optimistic on the setup into 2026 and believe Street numbers now provide a reasonable starting point

@TheTimeInvestor @SixSigmaCapital what's the evidence?

@SixSigmaCapital The advantage with $ADBE is that we already have substantial evidence suggesting it won’t be an AI-loser, despite its very low valuation. That wasn’t nearly as clear for $GOOG eight months ago.

I think the designated "AI- losers" but not actually AI losers will be a winning group of stocks next year