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Here’s a guide on how you can actually be profitable during this tech / @BagsApp meta.
There are 3 types of project stages:
(If you want to skip all of this guide and just see what’s the most important, scroll down to point 2.3 and point 4.3 below.)
1. This is when the token is pre-interaction from the dev -- nothing at all, usually at inception.
2. This is where there has been an interaction (a claim or response) but still no endorsement.
3. This is where there has been a full-on endorsement from the dev; they have fully integrated the token or have plans to.
Where you usually want to be is Type 1 and Type 3 projects. You want to completely avoid Type 2 projects, as they are a gray area and essentially straight gambling.
Now, when bidding on Type 1 projects, you want to look for perceived value/quality instead of actual quality, as this is really a game of speed at this point.
Here are a few points to find out if a project has perceived value:
1 -- How good is the web app UI?
Is it clean, concise, smooth-looking, novel, or innovative in some way? Again, at this stage you’re trying to see if it looks this way, not if it actually is.
Examples: smooth animations, smooth scrolling, well-placed/timed background videos, mouse interactions with the background, etc.
2 -- How “stacked” (as they call it) is the actual project?
To verify this, the GitHub and web app usually have the answers.
2.1 -- On GitHub, how many commits are there and what is their frequency? A good rule of thumb is at least 3–4 commits a day for a few months, while making sure the commits are not slop and are done by real contributors.
2.2 -- Next: stars, forks, and watchers. You can tell if forks are real by clicking on them individually and seeing if they’re real people.
2.3 -- Most importantly: make a list of devs on Twitter and follow them. You can go on popular X tech communities and find lots of “Twitter devs.” Follow the most reputable ones, along with devs from large corporations such as Google, Apple, X, Netflix, etc.
What this does is give you instant signal on whether a project is semi-credible or not.
3 -- How “stacked” is the dev? This one is also important.
3.1 -- Which projects has the dev worked on?
3.2 -- Which of the devs you now follow also follow this dev? The more credible mutuals, the more credible the dev (for example, if @toly or @solana follows a dev).
3.3 -- How many users did their previous projects get?
3.4 -- How recognizable are their previous projects (for example, a very popular VS Code or Claude Code extension)?
You can find most of this on X, LinkedIn, GitHub, or their personal Linktree.
4 -- Larp or not?
For Type 1 projects, you don’t have time for extensive DD, but you must do the basics.
4.1 -- Check if the data on the website is hardcoded. In other words, is there real data flowing in and out of the site from a database, API, or another server? You can verify this by inspecting network requests.
4.2 -- Open a private browser, make a quick account, connect a burner wallet, and actually try the interactive components. It takes 30 seconds and you’ll immediately know if it’s a larp. You have to be willing to do what others won’t.
4.3 -- Use quick repo scanners like reposcan.ai and usewhisper.dev/scan
Again, these are just the absolute quick basics.
That’s the conclusion for Type 1 projects. All of this DD can usually be done in 1–2 minutes, and once you’re good, 30 seconds or less.
If you enjoyed this, let me know if you’d like an extensive guide on Type 3 projects next, and how to be profitable / become a due-diligence tech expert on them.
Make sure to bookmark this guide and keep a mental checklist when evaluating Type 1 projects.
Your neighborhood dev,
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