Dhruvesh Sanghvi

Ladies and gents, take note - Sachee Trivedi 🔥

@shikhar_mundra Bse Smallcap Index Data is available here bseindices.com/indices-detail… Even if you check with other small cap indices, directionally … similar number might emerge is my guess.

@prosperotree wasnt the bse small cap discontinued from 28th jan? i think the fall is greater than 13%

BSE Smallcap: The Jan-Mar Pattern, the Nervousness Around It, and Where Things Stand prosperotree.com/articles.asp?i… — Shared some thoughts on the recurring Jan-Mar weakness in BSE Smallcap, historical patterns, current nervousness, and where things might stand. Includes data from 2013–2025 and context on 2026.

Complications of Timing The complications of market timing are starkly illustrated in the case of stock prices of Indian export-oriented companies impacted by tariffs. If one sold their holdings after the initial tariff announcements, the stocks had already suffered significant declines, making it tough to exit without losses/mtms. Over the ensuing months, prices eroded further as expectations for a swift trade deal evaporated, leading to reducing investor confidence. Earnings data & management commentary further confirmed this deterioration. Interest in these stocks reduced further. Further, Budget STT related announcement delivered another blow, driving prices even lower. People almost forgot about India-USA Trade deal. Suddenly, in one night, a deal is announced. The affected export companies spike 20% and may rise more ahead. If one decides to re-enter / buy now, this 20-30% price increase effectively wipes out major "smart" gains from any earlier timing attempts. Wise investors have long cautioned against trying to time the market. As Warren Buffett put it: "I never have the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do in the next six months, or the next year, or the next two." Similarly, Peter Lynch warned: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

One thing I learnt from Epstein mails is that no billionaire gives a f*ck about grammar, capital letters, proper nouns, punctuation or general email writing etiquettes.

Mother of all bull markets starts.

Lutnick: India 'missed train' → higher rates. Reality: India ends at 18% vs Indonesia/Phillipines @ 19% and Vietnam @ 20% #indiaTradeDeal

Reminds me of this quote: “Sometimes there are decades when nothing happens, and sometimes there are weeks where decades happen.” India deal-making spree: 1) July25: India–UK 2) Dec25: India–Oman 3) Dec25: India–New Zealand FTA 4) Jan26: India–EU FTA 5) Feb26: India-US More deals with smaller regions may add up 🌍 #IndiaTradeDeals #Tariff #Modi #Trump

Prices over time construction-physics.com/p/do-commoditi…

"A lot of my friends don't want to work anymore" - Elon Musk

Expensive real estate destroys demographics. Any society that traps its young people in debt, because of expensive education or expensive housing or expensive health care (or all of the above in many cases) is a society that is destroying its own demographic future. If you love children, enable lower cost of living for prospective parents.

Warren Buffett: “You have to make very, very few right investing decisions in your life. … The main thing to is buy into a wonderful business and just sit there with it.”

I've been self-employed for most of my life & without a schedule for 2 decades, yet I still find Friday and Saturday the most pleasant days, Monday the least pleasurable one, & Sunday evening a usually sombre moment. It has to do with the mood of others. You don't live alone.

I recently revisited "100 to 1 in the Stock Market" by Thomas Phelps, a book written in the 1970s, to reflect on its key insights in today's context in 2025. Two Big Points: In my view, the author conveys two key thoughts: First: Seek investments that hold the potential for substantial long-term returns, for example, 50-100x returns. This is possible to achieve only if one believes in the possibility and directs efforts toward it. Second: Develop the patience to hold such investments for extended periods—10, 20, or even 30 years. Relevance in 2025: In today's context, the idea of adopting such long time frames—10, 20, or even 30 years—may seem stupid/unlikely, especially amid rapid changes. In addition, the current environment presents challenges like high overall starting valuations and intensified competition from a growing number of investors. While opportunities for outsized returns will surely continue to exist, they may be harder to uncover. To succeed in spotting such outsized outcomes, I think it is essential to cultivate the behavioral attitudes emphasized in the book; otherwise, the chances of realizing such gains diminish sharply.

Nice summary in one place

#Silver spot rates are higher by 11-13% than that of MCX futures price. This is unheard of premium in the history of Silver Trade. I don’t have a strong view on the price of Silver but those few people who have long term Silver in physical capacity can possibly sell in Physical and buy in Exchange to later possibly reverse this when the difference reduces to sensible levels. Silver trades on MCX in units of 1Kg, 5Kg, and 30Kg

Manish Sabharwal's razor-sharp takes on India's economic roadblocks are no secret—he's been hammering home these truths for years. But in this fresh chat on The India Story Podcast, he truly breaks it down, layer by layer, the core issues strangling our economic growth and step-by-step playbook to unleash our potential. As a entrepreneur and Investor, I strongly feel for this cause and I wish there is a lot more voiced raised by people to convert in political will & action. WHAT can enable us to meaningfully accelerate growth and press the accelerator. And the answer lies in the need to clear the "regulatory cholesterol" clogging the arteries, especially for Indian entrepreneurs. Picture this: For Indian entrepreneurs, there is a universe of 69,000 compliances, 6,600 compliance filings, and a mind-boggling 26,000 criminal provisions that can jail you for absurdities like missing a canteen meeting or not painting a bathroom on time. 😤 Full compliance is basically impossible turning red tape into a petty low level corruption breeding ground. But here's the kicker: most of these rules are just outdated nonsense that don't make any sense anymore. And even if some guardrails are needed, 26,000 ways to criminalize everyday business? That's not protection to soceity; that's paralysis for entrepreneurship. India has EVERYTHING to potentially succeed and hit 8-9% sustained decadal growth. A youth of 90 crore Indians under age 35, enough land and unbelievable access to capital, a huge domestic market and established leadership in some sectors. For exmaple: India is exporting more software than Saudi Arabia's export oil. We are exporting half of America's generics needs ... all of this only on a per capita of just $2,500! What is the bottleneck then? CLEARLY, "Regulatory Cholesterol" holding back our labor, land, and capital from working efficiently together. Manish Sabharwal ji's three-pronged fix is executable, but it demands political will: 1️⃣ Decriminalization: Axe 90% of these 26,000 ways to go to jail for an entrepreneur for silly things... Make it a 8-10 principle-based approach and limit the criminal provisions to maybe 500-1000 provisions. This is the easiest and is like a "flick of a pen reform". 2️⃣ Deregulation: Access to all laws, acts, subsequent notifications, & FAQ should be always updated at a single location. Streamline this, and then deregulate massively. Unlease the energy and poductivity of the youth of India. 3️⃣ Digitization: Go fully paperless, presenceless, cashless for employers and regulators filings and compliance management through one national grid. However, Manish ji warns of the human hurdle: 2-3 crore civil servants, especially in lower ranks, who'll fight tooth and nail against this. Why? It erodes their rent-seeking power and diminishes their gatekeeper status in the system—they'll manufacture roadblocks to cling to relevance. Tag a policymaker or a fellow entrepreneur 🇮🇳 #IndiaEconomy #RegulatoryReform #Entrepreneurship #ManishSabharwal @narendramodi @nsitharaman @AmitShah @PiyushGoyal @nitin_gadkari @CimGOI Good hosting by @VikramChandra Link: youtube.com/watch?v=Z-CC6p…

Feedback from other people is fake. Awards are fake. Critics are fake. Real feedback comes from free markets and nature. Did your rocket launch? Did your drone fly? It’s impossible to fool Mother Nature.

How Oberoi’s 25-Acre Bet Set a New Bar for Luxury RE in Mumbai 🏙️📈 #RealEstate #MumbaiRE #OberoiRealty In 2015-16, the all-inclusive price for a mid-floor apartment at Oberoi Sky City in Borivali, Mumbai, was approximately Rs 29,000 per sq ft for buyers. By the end of 2020, it had risen to about Rs 30,000. Fast forward to Navratri 2025, and the pricing for new buyers from the builder is around Rs 50,000 per sq ft. The project's pricing now rivals or surpasses that of standalone buildings in neighborhoods often considered far more premium, such as Vile Parle, Versova, Matunga, or Lower Parel. This isn't just a story of price appreciation; it's a masterclass in how one bold, large-scale development can transform an entire suburb, elevate a builder's brand, and deliver outsized returns for both the builder and consumers. As an investor—whether you're eyeing stocks in real estate firms or scouting premium properties for personal use—understanding these dynamics can sharpen your lens on what makes a project truly "material" in driving long-term upside. Let's unpack the journey of Oberoi Sky City in Borivali East, Mumbai… a 25-acre development by Oberoi Realty 🧵 1/ The Backdrop: In 2014, Mumbai's real estate market was stagnant, mirroring India's broader slowdown. Many builders shied away from massive land parcels due to its capital intensity and uncertain end market demand. Yet Oberoi saw opportunity in Borivali, a western northern suburb of Mumbai. Oberoi outbid sparse competition to secure this plot, betting Rs 1155 crores for 25 acres from Tatas. The idea was to build a luxury community living having a mixed-use development in an area ripe for upliftment. Sales kicked off around 2015-2016, there were robust initial sales, drawing buyers with promises of scale and amenities. 2/ The Hurdles and Pivot: Pricing stayed flat from 2015 to 2020 amid Mumbai market stagnation. Just as recovery loomed in 2019, COVID hit in 2020 stalling all sales. However, the aftermath of covid months reshaped priorities of consumers. Suddenly, large spaces and integrated communities weren't luxuries—they were necessities. The pandemic amplified already existing nationwide trend of community living. It was a period where rentals started to sour, as remote work and health concerns made spacious, self-contained living non-negotiable. As the prices started to show sign of improvement, the "rental vs. own" debate tilted decisively toward ownership. That Oberoi's vision aligned perfectly with these tailwinds of “Luxury Quality Home Ownership” 3/ The Pricing Trend: This wasn't a piecemeal project. Oberoi planned somewhere around 3,000 luxury apartments with starting prices at Rs 3 crores for a 3BHK apartment. With the passage of time, the price per sqft and size of newly launched apartments, both increased, making the current range per apartment from the builders pending inventory pegged at Rs 5 crores to Rs 11 crores each. 4/ Understanding the Size: To understand what 25 acres means in terms of final output, the development includes around 8 towers of 61 stories, comprising approximately 3,000 apartments. In terms of square footage, this probably translates to around 40 lakh sq ft of residential space. Additionally, there is a large mall and a 5-star hotel, both directly connected to the metro. The mall has a gross leasable area of 12 lakh sq ft—one of the largest in Mumbai—and houses some of the best brands, along with a 10-screen INOX and numerous dining options. In its first year, the mall has achieved a run rate of generating ~Rs 300 crores in annual rentals. The Marriott-operated 5-star hotel will have 280+ rooms and may add another Rs 50-100 crores in operating profits. Coming back to the residential complex, it naturally includes a good amount of open space and direct access from the residences to the mall, metro, and hotel—possibly the only such setup in India. Imagining and executing all of this in 2014-15 was audacious; it required foresight into urban integration, sustainability, and lifestyle elevation. 5/ Financial Magic: When boldness meets execution and tailwinds, profits soar. Let's ballpark: Once completed, Oberoi will collect around 13,000 crores from residential sales. Add to that the yearly income from the mall and hotel, which will be around 400 crores to start. In terms of cost, there is around ~60 lakh sq ft of construction (40 lakh residential + 20 lakh mall/hotel + others) at Rs 5,000/sq ft = Rs 3,000 crores. Add approvals/liaisoning, marketing, and the first 2-3 years of interest—still, the outcome is a spectacular profit from the sale of residential units and a permanent profit from the rental income generated. Throughout the journey, Oberoi most likely maintained a working-capital-positive approach; customers prepaid the cash flows and today are paying 65-70% more than the 2019 prices. Unbelievable numbers and value creation. 6/ Uplift for the Ecosystem: Beyond Oberoi, this project catalyzed Borivali's transformation. It anchored prices at a premium level, shifting the market from basic 2BHKs to luxury towers. It is my guess that, looking at Oberoi, there are nearly 100-200 smaller builders who would have benefitted from rising land values and demand spillover, fostering bigger, better plans. And builders have used this as an anchor pricing to signal to the customers. 7/ Pricing for Luxury: The prices of luxury apartments, like many other luxury items, are determined not only by the product but also by the selection of gentry and cancellations. Oberoi’s transparency in pricing, taking money in the most proper, law-abiding fashion, and having consistency in its offerings have dramatically reduced the burden of explanation and marketing. Customers are usually fairly aware of what to expect. Due to the manner of dealing with customers, there is a significant brand-value advantage that Oberoi could harness in terms of creating the right scarcity value as well. After the community is built, the community is what determines the pricing. It is not just a brick-and-mortar thing. Oberoi has been able to turn the location from "suburban" into "desirable.” Huge respect for this. 8/ Regulatory Evolution Can Be a Bonanza for Large Land Builders: Throughout the last 20 years, regulations have been continuously updated. And due to these regulations, there has been a substantial increase in FSIs over time—this has unlocked extra buildable area, amplifying the sales potential for large landholders. Oberoi, like many large builders, is a huge beneficiary of this. 9/ When product improves, the Consumer Wins: For end-users, the perks are profound. Integrated living means convenience (mall/metro at your doorstep), security, and community—post-COVID essentials. Transparency shines: Oberoi's pricing is upfront, payments legit (no dodgy dealings), and communication clear. Sure, no project's perfect—some residents might gripe about elevator counts (5 per tower vs. ideal 6-7), sports facilities sizing, or minor civil/tile issues. But in a 10-year, 25-acre endeavor, these are footnotes. The real story? Elevated living standards that set benchmarks, empowering consumers to demand more from competitors. 10/ For the what if price thinkers: Below is a table that broadly summarises the journey of pricing for Oberoi Sky City Project in Borivali #OberoiRealty #OberoiSkyCity #Navratri2025

The World in Which We Live Now. 7 Points. Lecture at the Ron Paul Institute Annual Meeting. Thanks @DanielLMcAdams