Quanatee

🧵🌞GMGNGG 🌕🧵 After 9 months of trenching, I'm calling it a night. I started with 2 sols and a dream in Nov 2024, made it out with >$700k in Aug 25 It was fun. Here's what the +/- of worked for me and what didn't.

@GrumpierBTDay Undestandable. I keep seeing tons of bull posts about VELO and SpaceX but the reality is quite different. VELO doesn't benefit from SpaceX. They can do whatever with the tech, even build their own machines and don't have to share with VELO. Huge value leak IMO

It's critical tech for SpaceX. At the time the deal was made, it's wasn't clear that VELO was going to last even a few more months. The IP deal, and especially the bankruptcy clause, was an important way for SpaceX to protect itsself - switching to a new printer would carry huge costs and delays. So not much to really think about IMVHO.

I've seen some chatter regarding the $VELO shelf, and comparing it to the debt equity swap just completed at a premium; converted at $16.50ish while stock price was at $12.50ish. Some are suggesting, considering Arun's heavy position, and thus meaningful alignment with shareholders, that he won't raise until we cross that $16.50 threshold. I don't see it that way. I think Arun is likely to do what's best for the business, regardless of whether or not that particular 'trade' of his ends up profitable. He's a businessman first and foremost, not a financier or investor. If taking a hit to equity shareholders is in the best interests of serving the mission, that's what I expect he'll do. He has a vision beyond this years stock performance, and understands he's in a unique spot to address critical needs in space and defense manufacturing. Prioritizing serving the customer ensures long-term embedding into programs, stable relationships built on reliability and trust, and meaningful contribution to the revitalization of the US industrial base. That's not to say I think he'll grossly mismanage cap structure, but rather when there's a conflicting need between investors and customers, he'll pick the latter every time. A '100 year business', as Arun has articulated a vision for, is not built by waiting for the public markets to catch up to some arbitrary price point. So if price is not above $16.50 or so by the time he needs the cash, so be it. Just something to be aware of.

@Teknium Getting bloated

Hermes Agent now comes packaged with Karpathy's LLM-Wiki for creating knowledgebases and research vaults with Obsidian! In just a short bit of time Hermes created a large body of research work from studying the web, code, and our papers to create this knowledge base around all of Nous' projects. Just `hermes update` and type /llm-wiki in a new message or session to begin :) github.com/NousResearch/h…

This was such a bad deal. In 2024, $VELO granted SpaceX a worldwide, non-exclusive, royalty-free, and perpetual license to build, mod and dev the tech internally. Any improvements made by SpaceX are owned by SpaceX.

Trump looks forward to the weekends so that he can tweet like he wasn't POTUS

Where are the conspiracy theories that the downed F15e and missing pilot is a false flag operation to justify boots on the ground

@zachxbt Imagine Circle being more immutable than projects claiming to be as such

1/ Welcome to the Circle $USDC files. $420M+ in alleged compliance failures since 2022, including fifteen cases of the US-regulated stablecoin issuer taking minimal action against illicit funds.

Did US attack Anthropic too

@creapills Stop Whr

"STOP WAR" Typographie par Barbara Galińska

It's looking likelier that "boots on the ground" means a peaceful but tense extraction of the enriched uranium once US and Iran have made a deal. The operational prep would be no different from an offensive, so it would be prepared like one and planned in advance.

@MrSelfEmployed Whoever paid you to write this should ask for a refund

brother snap has spent $3 BILLION developing AR glasses over the last decade and has produced exactly zero dollars in hardware revenue from spectacles. zero. they launched spectacles v1 in 2016 and it flopped so hard they had to write off $40M in unsold inventory. v2 flopped. v3 flopped. the current v5 is a developer kit that costs $99/month and looks like ski goggles. and now youre telling me the 6th attempt is going to work?? meanwhile meta has already sold over 2 billion ray ban smart glasses with essilorluxottica since 2023, is launching AR screen glasses codename hypernova this year, and has orion full AR glasses shipping 2027 backed by $60B+ in annual net profit. google has android XR glasses coming with warby parker and samsung. apple is working on theirs for 2028. snap is trying to outrun companies with 50 to 100x their resources while their core business is literally dying. stock down 51% YTD. lost 4M daily users last quarter. north america DAUs dropping. EU investigation with billion dollar fine risk. they might need to raise outside capital just to ship the damn glasses. the “trojan horse” theory sounds cool until you realize the trojan horse company has a $7B market cap and the people building the actual city walls have $2 trillion

I'll keep saying this. $SNAP already spun off Specs, but Specs should not be killed this early. The laptop market is dying and Apple is winning with Macbook Neo. Smartphone market is incredibly difficult, look at all the dead Android brands. The only way for AI to own the distribution is via the trojan horse of an exciting device. That's why an AI + AR smartglass is so important. There is a risk that it becomes a fad 8 after 8 years sure, but the first 4 years will be full of interest, experimentation and potential. This alone is enough for companies to fight for dominance over because it will be a new hardware market and winner owns the moat.

@sanityninsanity @Snap @evanspiegel Quit dreaming.

Bottom got $snap-ped up. Giving up Specs would be a big mistake. Meta signaled that they are throttling back on AR, giving Snap even more of a first mover advantage in the full AR/AI smartglass category. Anyway they've already spun the project off. $7 incoming in hot.

@sanityninsanity @Snap @evanspiegel It can't happen. Common shares don't have voting rights

@quanatee $snap @Snap @evanspiegel What if there is a hostile bid at $12 a share?

You're only 1/2 guys holding comms with your adversarie. You don't break opsec unless a deal is done.

Claude, compare your harness with mine. Make mine better and make no mistakes.

@TokenFundament1 Gib ca

@quanatee Good luck! I went even more OTM

Not to mention if it beats earnings expectations this EoM it's gonna go crazy.

@wallstengine The BlackBerry of smart glasses

Meta is launching two new $499 Ray-Ban smart glasses, the Blayzer Optics and Scriber Optics, with slimmer frames, swappable nose pads, and adjustable temple tips. They go on sale April 14.