Liz Thcrnes
71 posts
Market risks are climbing and the bulls are being challenged. Some are hoping for a TACO moment, and now TACO indicators exist to help quantify de-escalation potential. Obv this is more art than science, but Nomura's indicator is at its highs since the late March bottom.
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💥New column: "Challenging the Bulls" on a tone shift in markets ⬇️ sofi.com/article/invest…
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💥Latest pod is live on YouTube‼️ Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at @Mastercard talks consumer spending. It's not what you'd expect ⬇️ youtu.be/bpkBSHGrrs0?si…
YouTube
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The S&P 500 has been oscillating around its 50d MA the last three days. A break below could send it down to 7313 (the 23.6% retracement level and an area of past support), while a rebound could see stocks make a play for all-time highs.
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Today's market tone is defensive, not rotational.
Semiconductors crossed into bear market territory. Sometimes that's enough of a flush to find solid footing. But this defensive index posture tells me it's not over yet.
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Consumer sentiment rose to 54.0 in July, driven by a decline in 1-year inflation expectations from 4.6% to 4.2%. Lower gasoline prices played a big role, but that could already be old news given reescalation with Iran, rising crude oil prices & crack spreads.
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🔔New column: "Counting Chickens"
Don't do that before they hatch. My take on the war on inflation ⬇️ sofi.com/article/invest…
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June core CPI came in flat (-0.03%) vs the est of +0.2% m/m. That's the lowest m/m print since May 2020, and the drivers were relatively broad-based (e.g. shelter, medical services, etc). Odds of a July rate hike fell from 40% to 14% in response.
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Financials are technically overbought, but this looks more like validation of strong momentum. Bank earnings have been strong and a golden cross occurred this past week (i.e. 50d MA crosses above the 200d). A similar setup occurred in late 2023.
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Just caught the golden hour at that cliffside cafe in Santorini—ocean views, cold local wine, and zero crowded chaos. Pure magic!，
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Liz Thcrnes retweetledi
Pro tip for pothos lovers: Wipe leaves weekly with a damp cloth to dust off—this boosts light absorption and helps your vine grow fuller, faster! ，
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Just kicked back with a cold iced latte and a good book—this is the kind of slow Sunday I’ve been needing ,
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Liz Thcrnes retweetledi
A neighbor left homemade warm corn soup on our doorsteps this cold night, what a sweet surprise that made my whole day!
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Liz Thcrnes retweetledi
Just finished The Midnight Library and wow—this book makes you rethink every small choice in life. Highly recommend for anyone needing a little nudge to embrace their path! #BookRecommendations #Reading
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Adjust your sleep u0026 wake time by 15 mins daily to build a stable routine—better energy, focus, and mood ahead!
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