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Ukraine now reporting 136 ships hit. They are now striking ocean-going tankers out in the Black Sea off the port of Novorossiysk. These ships include some international-flagged ships. Additionally, Ukraine are using their Sea Baby uncrewed surface vessels to target ships.

Canada Res RE mkt top is done, Aus starting the topping process now, NZ already getting down. USA topping process going on now , UK & W Europe are dead men walking . Same view since 2019 onward about the 2025/26 major Res RE bear mkt starting time frame in Western Mkts. 😎👍

Everyone wants to beat Nvidia nobody wants to beat SK Hynix?

🦔A former Mayo Clinic AI compliance lead is suing the hospital for firing her after she blew the whistle on its AI tools. The lawsuit alleges Mayo's digital assistant MAYA had a 67% error rate that staff tried to hide by deleting results and mischaracterizing outcomes. A high-risk cardiac surgery device was allegedly approved without required review board oversight. When she flagged these issues, she was told fixing them would "compromise Mayo's competitive advantage," then demoted and fired during medical leave. My Take A 67% error rate on a medical AI tool is bad enough. The allegation that staff knew and deleted the results to hide it is worse. Mayo is one of the most respected hospital systems in the world. If this is how they handled AI integration, with review boards bypassed and unfavorable data deleted because the priority was speed, smaller hospital networks with fewer resources are almost certainly doing no better. The "poor cultural fit" language is familiar to anyone who has watched a company push out a whistleblower. She raised ten separate complaints, got excluded from meetings, was warned that her boss had "marching orders to get rid of her ASAP," and was fired during medical leave. Mayo says it follows all applicable laws and regulations. The person they hired to ensure that says otherwise, and she's willing to take it to federal court. Hedgie🤗

Iran has launched a massive attack on US bases in the Gulf missiles are flying towards Jordan.

Mihoyo, creators of Genshin Impact, just launched Olivia - an AI companion who lives on your desktop, plays piano while you work, & exchanges letters with you. 100k downloads on day 1 The brilliant part is the GTM. Olivia debuted on Bilibili last summer as a virtual pianist, spent months building a fanbase and answering fan letters - all before shipping as a companion She launched with a built-in audience - hundreds of thousands follow her as a Shanghai university student majoring in piano (with a minor in psych), who loves old movies and rainy days Character-first AI with distinct personality, recognizable IP, and world building beats faceless agents - this is the way

BREAKING: Iran warns that in direct response to the US naval blockade on Iranian oil and gas exports, "other export routes for oil and gas which serve the interests of America and its allies" will also be closed, including the UAE Fujairah pipeline and Saudi East-West pipeline, per Tasnim. Iran adds "oil and gas exports from the region: either for everyone or for no one."

I'm really unnerved by the MATCH Act stuff. In 3-5 days, Huawei will show the product of 6 years of chasing the frontier under sanctions and export controls, will say "we've finally made it back, without EUV and TSMC". Xi will officiate this. And almost at the same time, Americans will likely pull the plug on DUV servicing and the entire rest of their technological dependencies, forcing third parties to comply; might try to frame it as part of the Pax Silica solidarity. (There's also the harebrained idea that European woes with Chinese trade imbalance will be used as a pretext for this united front, though how "sell even less to Chyna" is a good countermeasure is beyond me). We know how the Chinese take such humiliations from last October, although Americans have perhaps forgotten and/or believe that something has materially changed in the 9 months that followed. It's not like the Chinese can afford to let it slide, either – they're nowhere close to self-sufficiency. The MOFCOM package was not even maximalist, and it was merely a warning + sounding of the dependency graph. Actual retaliatory enforcement of Chinese export controls would *cripple* European industry and much of American one. If all goes well, Americans will rediscover object permanence and walk it back once again, though more likely Trump will try to compensate with a direct Blackwell offer (won't work, they value domestic capability more than compute). If it doesn't, I'm afraid we'll see a series of really nasty market events. No idea what the floor for this situation is. It's not talked about enough.

China 1H trade Import 22.1% ⬆️ Export 16.9% ⬆️ Not a bad 1H amid tariff, sanction and war

Who the hell priced the CXMT IPO??? They are IPOing at just $80B market cap (revenue will be in the $50B-$60B range this year at 75% GM, next year over $120B) Is there a way to get in??

Important points from Apollo's Torsten Slok: "Net foreign inflows into US equities have surged to a record high, driven in large part by overseas investors seeking AI exposure" "With most foreign equity investors not hedging their FX risk, the bottom line is that if AI disappoints, the resulting pullback in these inflows would be a significant downside risk to the US dollar." My take: It's not IF AI disappoints, the only question is when. And when that happens, the massively overbought dollar (hedge funds are also heavily long currently) could decline significantly and that would be an important propellant for gold (which is oversold and under-owned by hedge funds). Gold is currently signaling it may have already reached a bottom.