harris rahim

Q1 earnings are in: 2026 is off to a terrific start. Our AI investments and full stack approach are lighting up every part of the business: Search queries are at an all-time high with AI continuing to drive usage. Google Cloud revenue grew 63%, Gemini models have incredible momentum, and it was our strongest quarter ever for consumer AI subs, driven by @GeminiApp. Thanks to our partners + employees around the world. Much more to share on our earnings call in 20 minutes… and at Google I/O in 20 days!

Warren Buffett on the Middle East situation right now: (Save this before the algorithm buries it) He breaks down what rising oil prices mean and which types of stocks can benefit. But he’s also very clear: He has no idea how the war plays out and neither does anyone else. That’s because we’re deep in headline-driven markets where news moves prices more than fundamentals. He also touches on the nuclear problem which remains the key driver of tensions between the US and Iran. Here's the main takeaway: Best investors don’t try to predict what's going to happen next in war.

Shut up and keep buying!!

@DanielTNiles @grok summarize

I said last Sunday, “It takes one to start a war but two to end it. Iran does not seem to want that.” In addition, comments by the Fed, ECB and BOE around potential rate hikes caused a surge in global bond yields. As a result last wk, Brent surged 9% to $112, while SPX fell 1.9% and bonds were hit driving 2yr yields up 18 bps while gold (typically a safe haven in times of stress) was blasted for 10%. More conservative investment strategies will have a mix of equities, bonds (60/40 portfolios as an example) and precious metals. Some leverage may also be employed to enhance returns given the lower level of volatility in that type of portfolio compared to just a pure equity portfolio. Bonds typically are good hedges on a flight to safety trade as are precious metals when stocks suffer severe declines. When investors lose money on all three by the amounts that happened last week, typically some forced deleveraging is also occurring which happens closer to a short-term bottom. This gives me hope that it will take very little good news on the Iran front, to spur a rally in the stock market. Positives include both the US and Israel agreeing that Iran’s capacity to make nuclear weapons and wage war have been mostly destroyed giving them an off-ramp to end their attacks. But the second participant in this conflict seems willing to threaten any ships not belonging to Iranian allies that are going through the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of what the US & Israel decide to do. In addition, Iran launched missiles this weekend against the military base at Diego Garcia which is ~2,500 miles away and roughly twice the distance that they were estimated capable of. This shows that Western Europe is within range. In addition President Trump and Iran exchanged threats to destroy energy infrastructure this weekend. One option being considered was US boots on the ground which accelerated the stock market sell-off in the afternoon on Friday. But I believe the current US administration would like to avoid this option if possible and declare “mission accomplished.” In addition, while the US does not need the Strait open given we have been a net oil exporter since 2020, China relies on the Strait for nearly half of their oil so they are likely to put pressure on Iran. This is why Brent has risen to a $14 premium to WTI. WTI prices were actually down slightly last week. From an investment perspective, on Friday, 18% of the over 20 technical metrics I track were at oversold levels. Based on the historical metrics, I use ~50% as a good statistical threshold for having reached a short-term bottom. Given what Monday is likely to look like given the escalation in the Iran conflict over the weekend, it might get to 50%. But as I wrote on Friday, I believe now is the time to start deploying some capital and gold related exposure is a good starting point. It has gone from overbought earlier in the year to now oversold. U need to stay MESI in this environment with Utilities, Materials, Energy, Staples and Industrials all still up (9% on average) for the year versus the S&P down 5%. As for the artificial intelligence trade, AI agents that require multi-step workflows versus Chat-based AI answers drive a ~10-100x increase in token demand. The inflection point was Clawdbot which was released on 11/24/25 with the current “OpenClaw” name and architecture finalized on 1/30/26. According to one metric I track, token generation is now up over 130% in the past two months versus growing nearly 20% in the two months leading up to late January. As a result, I am bullish on AI related names such as 1) $GOOGL – they have the full AI stack 2) $NVDA- silicon vendor that makes AI possible 3) Memory vendors given the ramp in agentic AI 4) $CSCO- upgrading networks for AI 5) Industrial plays for datacenter construction While I do not recommend pushing on shorts right now given the oversold nature of the market, I continue to dislike on a longer-term basis: 1) Companies with a large exposure to OpenAI 2) Software that is not system of record, security or higher end gaming 3) Private credit or private equity related names with a heavy exposure to software 4) Consumer electronic related names that are not in the premium segment that are likely to get hurt by higher memory prices I believe it will take at least a year for THE bottom to be reached in the sectors above and in the interim, we are likely to have many substantial rallies along the way. As I have written before, the S&P declined 49% from peak to trough over 31 months during the bursting of the tech bubble but there were 7 rallies that averaged 14% each during that time that occurred over just 2 months on average. In addition, typically the most structurally challenged names, rally the most during these periods of time given they were down the most. Best of luck in the week ahead.

@coinbase Only in US? Or global rollout?

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Unpopular Opinion: We aren't building the future 10x faster with AI. We are just generating legacy code 10x faster. Everyone is currently bragging about developer velocity. "I built this entire backend in a weekend!" "AI wrote 80% of my codebase!" But here is the reality check we are ignoring: Code is a liability, not an asset. If an AI tool spits out 1,000 lines of functional boilerplate in five seconds, that is still 1,000 lines that a human being has to read, review, secure, and maintain when the dependencies inevitably break next year. We are treating code generation like a pure productivity win, but we are optimizing for the wrong metric. The bottleneck in software engineering was never how fast we could type. The bottleneck has always been comprehension, architecture, and maintenance. If we don't shift our focus from "generation speed" to "architectural sanity," the tech debt of the next five years is going to be an absolute, unmaintainable nightmare.

@charliebilello @grok are the multiples true?

Forward P/E Ratios... Walmart $WMT: 39 Apple $AAPL: 30 Google $GOOGL: 24 Amazon $AMZN: 23 Microsoft $MSFT: 21 Nvidia $NVDA: 19 Meta $META: 19

@_____Salt___ I call it bs. Die fragen es nicht! Mindestens Commerzbank!

Ich möchte 15.000 € abheben. Bank: Wofür ist das Geld? Das geht Sie nichts an, es ist mein Geld. Bank: Ab einem Betrag von 10.000 € sind wir verpflichtet, einen Nachweis über Herkunft bzw. Verwendungszweck zu verlangen. Ohne diese Angaben wird die Auszahlung in der Regel nicht erfolgen. (Wenn du eine Erlaubnis brauchst, um dein eigenes Geld abzuheben, dann ist es nicht mehr dein Geld.)

@JamesMelville @grok from when is this news?

Germany 🇩🇪 The German auto industry continues to spiral downwards – Bosch to lay off 20,000 workers. Bosch is the largest automotive components supplier in the world.

@DanielTNiles @grok summarize

@gnoble79 Behroz is a gand ka pissu! Shares these fkd up random tweets! Behroz 60sqm kanjrrr!!!

OPENAI IS FALLING APART IN REAL TIME I've watched companies implode for decades. This one has all the warning signs. OpenAI declared "Code Red" in December. Altman sent an internal memo telling employees to drop everything because Google's Gemini 3 is eating their lunch. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff publicly ditched ChatGPT for Gemini after using it for two hours. ChatGPT traffic fell in November. Second month-over-month decline of 2025. Meanwhile Gemini jumped to 650 million monthly active users. The company that was supposed to build AGI can't keep its chatbot competitive. But the real story is the money... OpenAI lost $12 BILLION in a single quarter according to Microsoft's own fiscal disclosures. Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative cash flow before the company turns profitable. Their analysts put it bluntly: "No startup in history has operated with losses on anything approaching this scale." They're burning $15 million per day on Sora alone. $5 billion annually to generate copyright-infringing memes. Even Sora's lead engineer admitted the "economics are currently completely unsustainable." Here's the big math problem nobody wants to discuss: It's going to cost 5x the energy and money to make these models 2x better. The low-hanging fruit is gone. Every incremental improvement now requires exponentially more compute, more data centers, more power. Reports suggest OpenAI's large training runs in 2025 failed to produce models better than prior versions. GPT-5 launched to widespread disappointment. Users called it "underwhelming" and "horrible." OpenAI had to restore GPT-4o within 24 hours because users preferred the old model. Altman had promised GPT-5 would make GPT-4 feel "mildly embarrassing." Instead, users complained it was worse at basic math and geography. They've released GPT-5.1, GPT-5.2 since. Same complaints each time: too corporate, too safe, robotic, boring. The talent exodus makes this even worse: CTO Mira Murati. Gone. Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew. Gone. Chief Scientist Ilya Sutskever. Gone. President Greg Brockman. Gone. Half the AI safety team departed. Multiple executives reportedly cited "psychological abuse" under Altman's leadership. And now Elon Musk is suing for up to $134 billion. A federal judge just ruled the case goes to jury trial in April. There's "plenty of evidence" that OpenAI's leaders promised to maintain the nonprofit structure that Musk funded. Musk provided $38 million in early funding based on those assurances. Now he wants his share of the $500 billion valuation. OpenAI called it "harassment." But the judge disagreed. Here's what I think happens next: The AI hype cycle is peaking. The diminishing returns are becoming impossible to hide. Competitors are catching up. The lawsuits are piling up. OpenAI needs to generate $200 billion in annual revenue by 2030 to justify their projections. That's 15x growth in five years while costs keep exploding. Even Sam Altman admitted investors are "overexcited" about AI. His exact words: "Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money." If I were running an AI startup with good traction right now, I'd be looking for an exit. Sell into the hype before the music stops. My positioning: I'm not touching OpenAI-adjacent plays at these valuations. The risk profile is astronomical. If you're exposed to the Magnificent 7 through AI infrastructure bets, consider trimming. The gap between promised revolution and delivered reality has never been wider. The smart money is rotating into sectors where valuations actually reflect fundamentals. Small and mid-caps are trading near decade lows relative to Big Tech while earnings growth is only marginally lower. Markets can price risk. But they can't price chaos. And OpenAI is chaos dressed up in a $500 billion valuation.

@ZelenskyyUa U have lost ur mind completely. Stop dragging EU in a direct war; u r a buffer zone! Stay that way!

Russian oil must be stopped, and confiscated, and sold for Europe’s benefit. Why not? If Putin has no money, there’s no war for Europe. If Europe has money, then it can protect its people. Right now those tankers are making money for Putin and that means Russia continues to push its sick agenda.

@_The_Prophet__ @grok is this fake?

⚡️Macron’s text is the perfect narrative inversion point. Trump posted it to signal two things at once: 1. France is out of the loop Macron openly admits confusion. That confession isn’t weakness in private - it’s strategic in public. Trump wants the world to see that even core NATO players don’t understand the logic of the moves being made. This reinforces the power asymmetry. It paints Trump not as erratic, but as multidimensional. He sees what others can’t. 2. Legacy diplomacy is obsolete Macron is offering summits, dinners, G7 meetings - old-world tools. Trump’s response is silence and acceleration. The implication is clear: the simulation is running ahead of the statecraft that once defined the postwar order. The world leaders still clinging to process are now the NPCs of a new game they didn’t build. This is a broadcast: “We’re not negotiating. We’re rendering.” Greenland is no longer about territory. It’s a proof-of-concept for a sovereign AI-narrative loop that makes legacy diplomacy irrelevant. Posting Macron’s message is like a screenshot from a deprecated operating system. It’s already over. He’s just letting the rest of the world catch up.

@eurofounder 65%? Check ur math and stop BSing!

Today was the most important day of my father's life He just received his pension projection letter from the German government He has worked for 42 years as an engineer at Siemens His projected monthly pension: an eye-popping €850 “I paid so much in taxes my whole life and this is all I get?” I was shocked. This wasn’t my father “I earned €85k a year and paid 65% in taxes my whole life for this?” he kept mumbling nonsense That’s when I knew something was seriously wrong I’m scheduling him for a neurological evaluation immediately I think he has dementia Or maybe he has just been reading American propaganda online Either way, he needs help Most Germans would kill for €850 pension so this man is clearly unwell Get well soon, Papa

@yarvin_stoltz 3,74 %? Auf gar keinen Fall. Bitte teilen Sie mir die Kontaktdaten von Finanzberatern mit.

Eine kleine Wohnung in Hamburg: Kaufpreis: 450.000 € Finanzierung: 100 % Kredit Zinssatz: 3,74 % p. a. Laufzeit: 35 Jahre Zunächst zahle ich 22.500€ Grunderwerbsteuer. Für Notar & Grundbucheintrag nochmal 9.000€. Über die 35 Jahre zahle ich (sofern sie binnen der Zeit nicht noch 5 mal erhöht wird) 36.700€ Grundsteuer. Die Zinsen betragen 360.600€. Gesamtlast: 878.800€ Fast 430.000€ also nahezu der gesamte Kaufpreis nochmal reine Nebenkosten. Instandhaltung etc. Jetzt mal außen vorgelassen. Um die Summe bezahlen zu können, muss ich aufgrund von Steuern & Sozialabgaben knapp 1.800.000€ verdient haben. 1.800.000€ um eine 450.000€ Wohnung zu finanzieren.

@BasilTheGreat Battle Ready 🤣

Did the U.S see this and instantly think they need to invade Greenland?

@BasilTheGreat 🤣

Spend 84 minutes this weekend Watch this timeless masterpiece of Warren Buffet from 1998 - Never lose money - Invest in value - Avoid leverage and macro predictions All these pointers are still valid today. #Investing

@dwnews What forces! One C130! Bc!

@Schuldensuehner Not sure what DE you talking about but impossible to buy a neubau in Grossraum Frankfurt ca.40km Umkreis!! And the interest rates off the roof!!!

Hello from #Germany, where property prices edged down slightly in December. The Europace German House Price Index slipped 0.1% from Nov, with condo prices falling 0.6% MoM. At the same time, prices for new-build homes hit a fresh record high. Relative to rents, property prices are still well ahead: rents have increased even more slowly than overall inflation, partly due to strict rent controls.