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rayhan

@rayhan_closure

Indices • Expansion

Katılım Mart 2021
1.7K Takip Edilen477 Takipçiler
Chris™
Chris™@ProbableChris·
"Market Regimes" getting added soon to an NQ Stats near you. This will focus on how to identify market regimes, why it matters, how to use the information, etc.
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Chris™@ProbableChris

Why Market Regimes Matter If you want to know when to widen/shorten your stops, when to use bigger/smaller risk, when to use mean reversion frameworks vs trend continuation frameworks.....knowing the market regime you are trading in is how you can determine the answers to those questions. The market will always move from periods of compressed distribution to elevated distribution. Think of this simply as low volatility vs high volatility. When the market has been slow grind trending for awhile, you are in a compressed distribution. When the market has been creating big outlier days for awhile, you are in an elevated distribution. Elevated Regime: Here the market is active, its more volatile. High realized volatility usually accompanies directional conviction, news, or repricing. Moves extend further than they normally would, which punishes early fades. But elevated vol also produces the largest reversion spikes (exhaustion reversals), so mean reversion here is higher-reward and far higher-risk, and timing-dependent. In elevated regimes, expect wider moving bars, stops would be better placed wider or if not moved wider potentially using less $ risk, and the strategies you employ should be able to leverage this elevated volatility. Compressed Regime: Here the market is less volatile, you will see slow moving range days or slow grinding trend days. Low realized volatility means price is coiling in a tight range overall. Compression is also the setup before an expansion move. Volatility clusters, so a quiet regime is "storing" energy. In compressed regimes, expect smaller overall range within bars, stops can be tighter, and the strategies you employ here should not be trying to capture large moves because that is not the norm in compressed regimes. There are various ways to analyze the market and detect what regime you are in. I collect a 5yr baseline of distribution which gives me the +/- SDEV value. I than compare that baseline to the last rolling 10-days distribution, and view this data for the last 6 month, providing me with a chart. This shows me how recent price has been trading against historical price, as it pertains to market norms. I can also see when price is starting to come out of compression into an elevated state, or when price is reverting from an elevated state and falling into compression. Seeing this in the form of a chart allows me to start to make plans and assumptions and adjust my risk and strategies according. One strategy with one risk profile is not applicable to all market regimes. Elevated, actively expanding, compressed, actively compressing....these are the 4 regimes I focus on and they tell me how I should treat the Day, the New York AM, and each individual hour. You can apply this framework to anytime time based range.

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Chris™
Chris™@ProbableChris·
Solid +2r on the AM TBR this morning. Will see what the rest of the New York morning presents, but 2r before market open, on a Monday..... just going to be patient.
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Raid
Raid@Romeotpt·
Always calculate your loss before your profit.
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Chris™
Chris™@ProbableChris·
What did the "AM TBR" data look like this week? Monday, gave a clean -0.25 tap and bounce back to TBR Open. Did not dig much into the MAE, so entering on these feels a bit "front running", but the push higher took it to MFE. Tuesday, +0.25 came close but wasnt tagged, -0.25 ended up getting tagged and diving beyond the 95th percentile and stalling there until TBR close. Wednesday, nice push into +0.25 and up into the high percentile of reverted MAE, than a retrace to TBR Open. Thursday, push into +0.25 and ug into the 95th percentile of reverted MAE, formed a clean pivot and retraced to TBR open. Friday, very quick tap of +0.25 and retrace to TBR open leaving no room really for any viable entry, and an entry would of been front running the expected MAE. ------------- Many variations of how someone could of leveraged this data, and from a statistical hit rate perspective, it was 80%. Thursdays setup was the only one I traded, the only one that was clean enough for a trade. Wednesday could of potentially worked too, just seemed choppy at the top.
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Chris™@ProbableChris

New module added to NQ Stats "AM TBR" - nqstats.com/am_tbr.html Have been meaning to get this added to the site, just haven't had time. This is time based range data I use pretty much every day as a confluence/filter for trades taken typically before NY open. The idea is simple, collect a rolling 20-day price distribution of the 8am-12pm time based range. If you aren't familiar with price distributions, check out that section on the site. This rolling distro is used to get the +/- 0.25 sdev values, which are the trigger points. Which ever is hit first, either the + or - 0.25, this creates the expectation of reversion back to the TBR Open (8am open). The site provides total reversion metrics and by-the-hour metrics. I specifically focus on reversions within the first hour (8am hour), as that has the highest hit rate. MAE for reverted and non-reverted events is provided, as well as the MFE beyond the TBR Open, derived from 10yrs of data. You will find various other data pieces on the site, but here is what it looks like on a chart. Video coming soon....

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honda
honda@hondasipit·
dari newbie to newbie yg bru main LP di @MeteoraIDN : (strategi yg gw pake adlh "fast in fast out" baca sampai selesai y abg2) gw mau sharing nih setingan gmgn gw mungkin dibtuhkan utk tmn2 gw yg msih bru main LP (newbie) 1. Trending Table Settings gw bkin simple biar enak diliat. 2. Tema gw bkin fresh dan ngebantu mental gw agar ttp tenang, good vibes dan rileks krn greedy / nafsu musuh utama. 3. Filter gmgn gw sangat simple: age minimal 12 jam, minimal mc 1000k (1 jt market cap) maximal mc 15000k (15 jt marketcap), total fees 80 sol (ini penting). Udh cuma itu, utk lbih jelas bisa liat gambar 4. Untuk setingan didalam chart gw seperti ini (cek gambar), timeframe gw pake 15 menit, indikator gw pake supertrend dan ema, panel trades gw bikin disamping dan set view nya bundler biar gw bisa tau kira kira market mau di apain nih sama si bundlers2 itu. 5. Untuk bonus, gw biasa nyari bahan koin jg dari hot search (liat gambar) dan yg gw perhatikan adalah seberapa "hot" koin trsebut + price change nya spt apa. (Tips) gw main fast in fast out dn nyari cma 0.5% profit aja. Tetapi gw mainnya repetisi (berulang ulang), biasanya sehari bisa 30-50x posisi. utk detail strat yg gw pakek nti gw bagiin klo byk yg komen "i love ronaldo" GFT💸
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Chris™
Chris™@ProbableChris·
New module added to NQ Stats "AM TBR" - nqstats.com/am_tbr.html Have been meaning to get this added to the site, just haven't had time. This is time based range data I use pretty much every day as a confluence/filter for trades taken typically before NY open. The idea is simple, collect a rolling 20-day price distribution of the 8am-12pm time based range. If you aren't familiar with price distributions, check out that section on the site. This rolling distro is used to get the +/- 0.25 sdev values, which are the trigger points. Which ever is hit first, either the + or - 0.25, this creates the expectation of reversion back to the TBR Open (8am open). The site provides total reversion metrics and by-the-hour metrics. I specifically focus on reversions within the first hour (8am hour), as that has the highest hit rate. MAE for reverted and non-reverted events is provided, as well as the MFE beyond the TBR Open, derived from 10yrs of data. You will find various other data pieces on the site, but here is what it looks like on a chart. Video coming soon....
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Kuda 🐴
Kuda 🐴@Kudabajingan·
@satyaXBT Ini jujur gajian mang satya sebulan dah sama ky gaji kantoran yg oke di jakarta 🤣
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satyaxbt
satyaxbt@satyaXBT·
biaya liburan udah diganti sama Elon, thanks X
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rayhan
rayhan@rayhan_closure·
@xvgncy info ne mas wkwk
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0xIzzy Reddington
0xIzzy Reddington@xvgncy·
pov anak crypto di tanyain loker 🤡
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Ananta
Ananta@anantachill·
Alhamdulillah punya karyawan gak perlu di gaji, malah boss nya yang di gaji umr 😆, hampir sebulan full agent meridian, config dan logic udah bagus tinggal tunggu volume yg good aja
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yunus
yunus@0xyunss·
new update dari meteora bikin screening kalian lebih sat-set, gua bakal share 2 preset yang gua/agent pake harian. kalian bisa nambahin sampe 5 preset. jadi di market kaya gini gua punya 2 play, casual sama multiday. casual ini lebih ke main volume spike, kalo ada runner, main cepet dan bisa aja 2-6 jam tergantung price action. intinya ibarat kerja kaya kerja 9-5. terus multiday, sesuai namanya cari token yang bisa ditahan 24jam keatas dengan ngarep fee bisa 20% dari posisi. filter classic/casual play : - verified + jupshield centang - mcap minimal 250k - holders 500 - vol 2000 - active tvl 5000 - fee/atvl 0.3% - timeframe 30menit filter multidays : - verified + jupshield centang - mcap minimal 1m - holders 1000 - vol min 500k - tvl min 50k - timeframe 24h - pick top 1-4 kecuali kalo ada sol/usdc
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Meteora@MeteoraAG

Preset Filters are now live on Pool Discovery. → Save any combination of Market Cap, Token Age, Volume, Fees etc. → Switch between saved presets anytime → Find new pools, fast Less filtering. More printing.

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Bian 🇮🇩
Bian 🇮🇩@biantrades·
Masih catat trade manual di Notion atau spreadsheet? Capek kan tiap hari input-input gitu 😩 Ribet, gampang kelewat detail, apalagi buat tracking phases prop firm + consistency rules. @Gameify_journal 100% gratis. Bisa import CSV dari MT4, MT5, cTrader, TopstepX, Tradeovate dll. Track otomatis dari challenge sampe funded, analytics lengkap, plus gamification biar journaling lebih fun & bikin disiplin. Sudah dipake 1K+ trader dengan rating 4.9/5. Worth it banget dibanding manual. Dan yang paling gokil, kalian bisa mengumpulkan XP agar bisa ditukar dengan akun Prop Firm yang tersedia! Langsung gas di sini → gameifyjournal.com/?ref=5B012381
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rayhan
rayhan@rayhan_closure·
@_diortrades yahhh mau belajar bareng2 padahal
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dior
dior@_diortrades·
$NQ
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rayhan
rayhan@rayhan_closure·
@xvgncy bar liburan nang ndi mas?
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0xIzzy Reddington
0xIzzy Reddington@xvgncy·
selesai liburan saatnya trade lagi
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yunus
yunus@0xyunss·
masih inget agent DLMM di @MeteoraAG gua yang bulan kemaren ngehasilin gua $1.5k, ini adalah tutorial lengkap 32 menit full dari awal banget setup hingga oprek. kalian yang gabisa apa-apa udah dijelasin semua di sini. kalo ada yang kurang tolong banget buat komen biar gua bikinin video lanjutan. semua link untuk setup kebutuhan ada di komen 00:00 Intro 02:47 Persiapan Tools 04:32 Fundamental 09:08 Installing 12:13 ENV dan User Config 18:57 First Start 20:27 Telegram Community 24:12 Basic Troubleshoot 27:02 Screen Session 28:05 Hardcode 30:10 Penutup
yunus@0xyunss

alhamdulillah bulan ini ai agent dlmm dan trench dapet $3k atau sekitar 50jt an. cost untuk ini sekitar $30 untuk vps, 50$ untuk RPC, 40$ langganan AI, 10$ buat LLMnya. jadi sekitar 130$ untuk cost bulanan. jujur aja emang emang set up awal kerasa ribet banget, apalagi yang bikin ya. tapi kalo udah tau ya tinggal mantau beberapa jam sekali. terimakasih bismillah dawo dan @meridian_agent

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yunus
yunus@0xyunss·
gua mau cerita gimana caranya setahun lebih traveling keliling dunia gratis (pake yield) dan dlmm @MeteoraAG ini riil pengalaman gua dan gua masih ngelakuin ini sampe sekarang. ini bakal panjang tapi bisa jadi pedoman buat kalian. tapi ada syaratnya, kalian harus umur 21+ dan punya risk profile sedikit konservatif. sebenernya ini juga tips buat manage keuangan buat kalian yang lagi berkecimpung di web3. cerita dikit, gua mulai nyemplung di web3 dari tahun 2024 awal, sama kek kebanyakan orang, garap airdrop. phase 1. punya duit beruntungnya gua adalah sekian persen orang yang beruntung garap airdrop (karena kebanyakan airdrop itu abu). sedikit cerita, gua waktu itu 2024 akhir porto gua sekitar $15k-20k dan untuk gua yang tinggal di sebuah kota kecil di jawatimur dengan expense sekitar 60-100$ per bulan, gua ngerasa ada beban untuk megang duit segini. jadi gua nyari cara biar duit ini muter dan produktif, ketemulah defi. gua tipe yang safe-konservatif, jadi gaboleh itu duit gua risk lagi, jadi proporsi aset waktu 60% stable farming, 20% cash idr, 20% degen meteora dlmm. nah ini kenapa kalian harus umur 21, karena ini bakal manage duit combo cc (credit card) + yield. kalo kalian belum punya cc, buruan apply. gua pake cc bca, dan kenapa 20% aset gua di idr adalah karena buat nyari limit cc bca. fyi, trick dari kebanyakan orang adalah duit kalian di rekening harus 3x limit yang kalian pengen. gua waktu itu umur 22 dan one shot langsung acc credit card bca dengan limit awal 12jt. langsung book tiket pesawat pake cc. waktu itu gua pengen menuhin inner child dream gua, liburan ke jerman dan beberapa negara eropa dan ini adalah paspor + visa pertama gua. dengan persiapan matang visa schengen jerman yang katanya susah itu langsung tembus 4 hari kerja tanpa agent, pure ngurus sendiri. cc di sini punya peran penting karena cicilan 0% di tenor 3 bulan dan sekitar 1.5% keknya di tenor 12 bulan yang artinya, yield gua bisa bayarin tagihan cc gua. ini adalah kuncinya. expense kalian jangan sampe ngelebihin yield bulanan kalian. karena cari yield 20-30% di stable crypto itu cukup mudah kalo kalian cukup konservatif. phase 2. opportunity contoh sol-usdc di meteora dengan range panjang bisa ngasih kalian 20-40% apr. yang artinya gua waktu itu naruh $7k buat sol-usdc, $5k buat stable farming di base. jadi waktu itu yield gua : - solana = 240$/bulan - base = 70$/bulan karena limit cc gua selalu mentok kanan waktu dan gua ambil 6 bulan, tagihan cc gua sekitar 2jt an sebulan ato waktu itu 120$. cara ini udah gua pake, gua selalu nemu stable farming di berbagai chain. bisa pake merkl buat pantau. di luar itu gua konsisten dari 2024 akhir, dlmm di meteora dengan 10% porto gua, alhamdulillah konsisten dapet diatas $1k per bulan. ini mungkin kelemahan gua juga karena gabisa ngerisk waktu ada kesempatan jadi dari dulu profit bulanan gua di meteora gua pindahin 80% ke stable, 20% buat play lagi. dan di pertengahan 2025 dapet airdrop dari meteora yang lumayan, 5 figs yang lagi-lagi gua masukin ke stable farming gitu terus sampe jalan 2 tahun, dan dari situ limit cc gua nambah karena gua wd beberapa kalo mau nambahin limit. karena gua ngincer 30jt an limit, gua endepin 100jt++ di rekening. di 2025 pertengahan gua juga dapet kerjaan web3 yang lagi-lagi gua masukin ke stable farming. sampe temen-temen gua pada titip duit, ath, aum gua itu sekitar $100k dan ya gua kurang perform waktu temen-temen titip, karena gua ngerasa terbebani kalo megang duit orang. jadi intinya : profit degen + gaji web 3 -> compound ke stable farming -> sisa yield abis bayar tagihan cc masukin lagi. gua bisa bilang gua hampir financial freedom di sini, stable farming gua ada di angka $50k an, tersebar di - sol-usdc - hype-usdc - xstocks-usdc (xstock ini adalah tokenized us stock, gua farming di crcl) avg apr sekitar 30% per tahun, jadi yield gua $1,25k per bulan sekarang. gua bangun ini pelan-pelan karena gua gabisa trading, skill gua kuat di dlmm meteora dan LP multichain. buat nentuin range gua ikut grup gratisan orang rusia di tele, TAnya jago, mereka ngeshort gua tinggal single side quote bid-ask. mereka ngelong gua flip. phase 3. stability. pake cc -> bayar pake yield -> dapet miles dari cc -> tuker tiket pesawat. kalo masih awal fokus nambah limit sampe dapet krisflyer sq. karena perksnya bisa bayar tiket sq pake miles, tinggal bayar ini itu pake cc, ada sodara mau beli talangin dulu pake cc. biar miles makin banyak. inilah kenapa gua bisa jalan-jalan terus sepanjang tahun di tahun 2025. semoga kalian yang udah punya porto 5-6 figs bisa ngelola dengan baik karena banyak orang duitnya tiba-tiba ilang karena gabisa ngelola. dan ya, swiss itu bagus banget, minimal seumur hidup sekali ke sini. meskipun waktu di sini makan roti doang. dan di 2025 gua udah keliling separoh europe, timur tengah, separuh asean. 2026 ini mau ke central asia dan namatin europe daerah scandinavian we grind, god willing.
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