Chris™

I've been trading since 2007. I do not sell products or services, nor am I affiliated with any groups. I do not offer public mentorship or share my specific strategies or entry criteria. I post my trades with context, focusing on the statistics and data they involve. I also share insights, data, concepts, and statistics I've developed or sourced. Feel free to ask questions via DM or in post replies. I am the sole owner of @NQStats. Visit the link in my bio for more information.

It’s not moving the goal post at all. You can be moved to live at anytime. Sim funds are not real funds. The current unpaid balance of your sim capital is irrelevant. Why does a firm need to wait until your next payout to move you if you already met the risk parameters required to move you to live? People should not view sim funded as a place to rake in money, it’s a proving ground. Unfortunately though, the sim funded stage has become a stage where people want to stay in, and never move to live, so they get mad when the live move happens. But going to live is the ENTIRE point of a prop firm.

@ProbableChris @BeefDayPepe Right lol

Congratulations to saying goodbye to 28k profits. We see that you are a couple of profit days from another 3 x 4.5k payouts and decided that you should be more happy with 2 x 4.5k live accounts, together with EOD trailing drawdown to make it more challenging. Congratulations from @Tradeify @BrettSimba @GandalfTrader

@champagneszn777 @BeefDayPepe People should read the terms they agree to when they sign that sim funded agreement.

Dude come on with that. It doesn’t matter if it’s sim or a physical dollar bill. He earned that with the intentions of getting paid out the same way he’s been getting paid out. It was REAL PROFITS AND REAL MONEY the same way it was the first two times he got paid out. Now all of a sudden it’s not real because props would rather not pay out 30k they’d rather make you start over with a way smaller account.

@champagneszn777 @BeefDayPepe Did you miss the part where those were never real profits? Sim is a proving ground. He proved himself, he got moved to live.

@ProbableChris @BeefDayPepe Did you miss the part when he is missing out on 28k in profits by coincidentally being moved to live a few days before his next payout lol

@JimScalpert @BeefDayPepe Yep. The issue is prop traders view it the same way they would view a personal account, and it’s simply not the same. Being self employed and working for a company, are two very different rule books.

Lets face it. Paying people real money, who are trading fake money, is a business model fraught with potential for extreme risk events. Rules will continue to change to try and make the firms more competitive while also attempting to limit their exposures. Traders have to now this going into it.

@DoubleWideCap Very robust

extremely rare. with data back to 2022.

@mikeastahl @BeefDayPepe A firm with no live structure isnt a prop firm then. Its a trap to get you to spend $ on evals, and when you become a liability, you get removed. Careful who you work for.

@ProbableChris @BeefDayPepe A certain firm kicks you out of fundeds and has no live after 6 payouts. Taking someone's earned money ain't it. If it's just sim money what is it they pay people with?

@BeefDayPepe I do however understand the frustration, I just think prop traders have a very skewed view of how the prop system is supposed to work.

@ProbableChris No other firms steal 100% of your profits before moving you live. I could make do with a payout and fund myself on my own live broker lol

I presume you are recommending I use these for the chart examples I have given on some of the stat pages, such as the pic attached. I am familiar with Recharts, but it provides outputs that are rather basic, not as visually appealing as the image attached. What would the benefit be? ECharts, I am not familiar with.

@ProbableChris @NQStats "echarts" "recharts" or any other proper library for chart visualization

NQ Stats website has received a redesign, with additional metrics and data around the existing stats/concepts. Check it out at nqstats.com and leave some feedback in the comments!

@Displace_ICT @NQStats Define "real charting library"

@NQStats Just use a real charting library.

@jonathanjon79 @NQStats Still use them, yep, take a look at my site nqstats.com which will outline the stats I trade around.

@ProbableChris @NQStats This is a great post. I'm a year late to this - have just discovered your writings. Do you still trade these 3 concepts today? Also, you don't post your trades anymore - don't see any recent ones? Thanks.

I mainly trade three models/strategies. These three stat based concepts can all be found at @NQStats. Below is some info on them and some final thoughts on consistency. #1 Using "ALN Stats", I look for the high prob bias target for that London high or low. This trade is usually around the 8am - 9am est window. This provides one potential setup a day. #2: Using "Noon Curve", I look for a 11am hour retrace of some kind, preferably into 50% of the leg formed in AM, and trade the direction of the bias Noon Curve and order flow dictate. This provides one potential setup a day. #3: Finally, using "Hour Stats", I look for setups just like the one this post is quoting. I trade between 8am and 4pm est. So this can provide a max of 8 potential setups, but its usually 1-3 setups a day. Summary: This creates a handful of trade opportunities every day, all with high probabilities attached to them, backed by data. These are just stat focused setups, you still need to create an entry model, define risk, etc. I personally use other confluences and tools as well, some also listed on @NQStats, some not. These 3 stat setups are just windows were a trade can be taken with a high conviction of the target being realized. I normally only take 1-3 trades a day, so having about half a dozen of potential opportunities allows me to be picky. My trades normally average around 20-50 points for wins and 10-25pts for losses. I have been trading the same way for a rather long time. It requires patience, you have to ignore others. Ignore chatrooms. Ignore furu P&L posts, etc. I do not care about news, earnings, what others are doing, what others are making, etc. This is a solo sport. I am consistently trading the same setups and process over and over every day, as you see on my feed every day, thus my performance is consistent. Whether the performance is positive or negative is dependent on if the strategies are good or bad. However, without doing something consistent day in a day out, the performance will always be sporadic and unreliable. You need a consistent process to have consistent performance.

@unfairvaluegap nice! Looks like we both have the same general view on the topic.

@ProbableChris Lmao I recently made almost the same free article just interactive and a bit more topics on my website ufvg.fun and made a video about it youtu.be/YXlZV-aiVW4?is…

Automated trading strategies have been popping up in my feed lately. As someone who has built many automated systems over the last 20yrs, here are 9 things you as the user should be asking for before using someone's automated system. probablechris.com/automated-stra…

@Ye_Lotto_Trader @NQStats Appreciate it!

@NQStats @ProbableChris My only concern that most people don’t deserve your work. Most people are lazy and stupid. Keep sdev out 🥴🤐✌🏻

@2spoons_ @NQStats The previous SDEV page on the old site wasnt a “stat”, but rather a framework on how to view price through a distribution lens. It will get added to the site soon, just in a different way.

@NQStats @ProbableChris No more SDEVS?

@Mr_Logan_Curtis @Emmonspired @NQStats Indeed

@Emmonspired It's that one dude who's idea @ProbableChris shut down with one tweet/back test. My ignore list on twitter/discord grows larger by the day. It should be @NQStats remains goated 😂

Why do people keep saying “IB remains goated” when there are far better ways to trade?

@jayalxndr @shahidsalim05 The simulation testing you, seeing if you go back to the drawing board lol. Hold the line.....

@shahidsalim05 Apparently the algo curse according to @ProbableChris 😭

we're live and the first night is a banger so far currently down $500 unrealized lmao amplifiedalgo.com

@trades_sage Nah lol. Imagine large firm trade desks paying out a portion of their traders gains in perpetuity, to random people, just because those people said “hey this place is hiring”.

@ProbableChris No. This is not sales this is getting rewarded when your “students” / “followers” succeed and get a payout by meeting set objectives

It’s time for a new affiliate model in prop trading. Affiliates should get paid when their followers actually succeed not just when they buy challenges. Pay affiliates a % of payouts earned by their traders, not a % of sales. Aligned incentives > churn marketing. Who would support this?

@JimScalpert @dontbsalti Legend

Many people in the comments say "Jimmy that P&L is fake. No way it could be that precise." Pro Tip: Sierra lets you set your lock out targets. You're welcome. 🤭