Chris™

I've been trading since 2007. I do not sell products or services, nor am I affiliated with any groups. I do not offer public mentorship or share my specific strategies or entry criteria. I post my trades with context, focusing on the statistics and data they involve. I also share insights, data, concepts, and statistics I've developed or sourced. Feel free to ask questions via DM or in post replies. I am the sole owner of @NQStats. Visit the link in my bio for more information.

@AxarNQ @NQStats Solid trade!

@BostonRobTrades Lookw like the strat was stagnant for the first 5yrs, would look into the reasoning for that to understand what changed.

NQ Overnight Trading Strategy - 15 year backtest on 5m The goal here is to catch a piece of the overnight trend so that we can add an additional edge to the portfolio of strategies. You can also expand upon this framework to ride the trend instead of just catching a bite of it. It's a repeatable behavior over time that I find interesting and recommend others should read up on. Here is what I was able to build, hopefully it helps: The signal I was trying to capture is the documented "upward overnight drift" where a majority of the Indices returns occur from 6pm - 9:30am. Part of this reason is from big inflows of orders that are pushed by a few daily repeatable factors like the Asian / London Session and Bank/Market Settlements. The strategy captures this drift, but only on healthy market days. How OVN Trend works: 1. Time: 18:00-18:15 PM NY OVN session open 2. Entry Conditions: VWAP + Vix + Vol - Above W VWAP - 1M VIX < 3M VIX - Vol Gate = 1 - 1.50 Daily ATR - Vix Cap = below 75% of past year percentile 3. TP & SL TP = 0.5% SL = 0.5% (passed all parameter sensitivity tests) 3. Position Sizing: Daily ATR How close is current price to W VWAP? - Beyond 0.50 ATR = 1 con - Within 0.25-0.50 = 2 con - Within 0.25 ATR = 3 con 4. Exit: Time or Price - Premarket open at 8:30 (can extend to 9:30) - SL / TP This strategy is replacing my current overnight strategy BUT FIRST it needs to go into demo forward testing to make sure that its legit. I will let you guys know what the end results are later this year. It was already able to reduce DD while maintaining similar returns on my overall portfolio so fingers crossed this makes it to the lineup. As always I'm no pro and still a beginner myself so feel free to hmu with any tips or feedback. There is so much to learn #AlgoTrading #DayTrading $NQ

382 trades across 6 years is roughly 1 trade a week. This is an intraday system, targetting small moves, but getting over filtered at the expense of frequency to where its no longer efficient use of capital. If you are only taking 1 trade a week on average with a intraday move based system, just swing trade the hourly or 4 hour based setups and capture larger more efficient moves. Intraday systems are great when the frequency makes sense. If the frequency doesnt make sense there is better efficiency in larger timeframe systems.

Today I ran a grid search on Mick's 4-Step Reversal setup. NQ M1, 2020-2026. The single most impactful change was patience: require all 4 steps before entry, not just 3. PF 1.65 → 2.23 WR 62% → 81% Trade count -53% How many of your setups would survive a strict quality filter on entry?

@champagneszn777 @ChudTheBuilder x.com/probablechris/…

@ChudTheBuilder Finding out the hard way that freedom of speech is not real. Freedom is fake. Amurrrricaaaaa.

I was wrongly arrested after a restaurant who had “ChudTheBuilder” written down at the host stand before I ever walked in the door, conspired to have me charged. Then, I was held until noon on Mother’s Day. Had to cancel breakfast plans with my family. I was interviewed by the feds and bank account frozen. All electronic devices seized, as well as my firearm. The police cleared my multi-factor authentication keys after they took all my items so now I can’t sign into any of my iCloud or any other accounts. I could not care less about some hat. I am simply weary after 6 months of being attacked by our government for expressing the constitutional freedoms our ancestors fought and died for. Wake up America. It’s not illegal for White people to say the same word they say to each other.

@brandilwells Europeans eat snails and call it a delicacy. South Americans eat soups made from the stomach of animals. Africans eat fried caterpillars. Indians eat curry made from cow/goat feet….. Shrimp doesnt seem that strange.

This is exactly why I don’t eat seafood. 🤢

@undercovrjunkie @Jezecz @NQStats Beyond a 2.0 I just sit out, doesnt happen very often.

@ProbableChris @Jezecz @NQStats Watch that vid Faizan! It’s gold! Yet another question: how do you handle when the +/-2SDev is getting steam rolled during what should be trend continuation days? Just sit out? Thank you!

youtu.be/pxs2MuqvH3w New vid for the new site on "Price Distributions". "Price Distributions" is a statistical framework I use to tell what regime we are in, what my bias should be (trend vs mean reversion), and when to time my entries. It uses percent net change from open to close of various time windows to calculate samples and derive data from said sample.

@Jezecz @undercovrjunkie @NQStats Did you watch the video in the original post above?

@ProbableChris @undercovrjunkie @NQStats What indicator or oscillator is this? What exactly are you comparing 20 day (blue) is on average the previous days or? sorry, I'm confused.

@Ye_Lotto_Trader Highest high and lowest low between X amount of bars. X has to be dynamic though as price legs can be any number of bars. Give claude a screenshot, circe the swing points, aak it the best way to define a retracement

@ProbableChris you would probably know this. I’m trying to do “NQ stats” for ES. You say you like a 40-60% pullback for NQ. How do you define what a pull back is? I have ES data organized in csv and was gonna have Claude go at it. Any suggestions? (Don’t have ninja trader-Mac)

@priest_099 Freedom of Speech

Name a scam

@beyoumf Time

name one thing more valuable than money.

@otokyo__ What if, after you die, you find out God isnt real, it’s just one autistic alien kid whose mom told him to go outside, so he made the most unhinged open world sandbox VR ever and forgot to add an exit button.

Dear atheist, What if, after you die, you find out that God is real all along? You lose.

@ArcRaiderAlerts Bro just wanted some seeds

This is the most hilarious encounter that I have ever seen in ARC Raiders 🤣

@wildwex @ADRWC To the point of the original post, cant be arrested if its not illegal. Thats why I was asking.

It does not matter if it’s illegal - human law is NOT above moral law. Unless there is additional information, not captured by the video (life at risk or ?), this is immoral and no one should need religion, spiritual guidance, nor what-have-you for insight. I know you are only asking rhetorically here - no judgement towards your question.

Should he be arrested for this?

@blumenTrading Its a rolling 5yr, roughly 1250 days. It included covid at one point, but thats no longer in the window.

@ProbableChris Super interesting video, did you use 5 years as to not include the market during Covid? Is your website getting maintenance?

5yr session distribution on the left, 20-day session distribution on the right, current session in the middle. 20-day is compressed relative to the 5yr. What does this mean? This means recent volatility is below the long-term baseline. The market has been quieter than usual over the last month, despite the uptrend to new all time high. Currently in a compression / consolidation regime in terms of vol. Range bound tape, lower ATR, tighter daily ranges, etc. Compressed vol historically resolves into vol expansion, and often violently. The trend continues until it doesn't, and when the regime breaks, you get sharp moves that blow through the narrow rolling bands. That's the "vol of vol" risk. Expecting outlier days here soon, don't let it catch you off guard when it happens.

@dom1984 @PatternProfits @Mc5calpAfee @paxtrader777 @dontbsalti @dancooketrades Have a good one Dom!

Happy weekend fellow X traders! @PatternProfits @ProbableChris @Mc5calpAfee @paxtrader777 @dontbsalti @dancooketrades music.youtube.com/watch?v=6CB9Or…

@Mohit___101 @NQStats yes

@ProbableChris @NQStats are those 60-40% retracements

Price gave the pullback for a Noon Curve long and ran for the highs letting me close it out early and not having to hold into PM. Solid day. You can learn more about the stats I trade around at @NQStats

Wrong mindset. Everyday there will be a "better trade" you could of taken somewhere. Just focus on your process and let the outcome be the out come, learn from the outcomes, make adjustments if needed, preserve capital to trade the next day. Shoulda, woulda, coulda will kill you in this line of work.

Reviewing the IB trades I should have taken today, I took the worst one as the vwap was flattening and buyers were shifting momentum, these other trades I could have taken today on MYM and M2K would have hit and been way better, also fully aligned with the stats and vwap, safe sl

@KenjiCapital @stocktrade2day @adiix_official On my 5th purchased home, question still stands.

@ProbableChris @stocktrade2day @adiix_official If you buy a house, you’ll learn.

SOMEONE JUST KILLED THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY A guy scanned an entire house with his phone. Uploaded it. Now anyone on Earth can walk through it in a browser tab. No app. No VR. No agent. No appointment. Click → you’re inside. Every room. Every angle. Every shadow. Photoreal. The numbers are insane: - Agent fee on a $500k home: $15,000 - Cost to make this scan: ~$200 - Time to “tour” 50 houses: one evening - File size: smaller than a TikTok The science is wild too: It’s called 3D Gaussian Splatting instead of polygons (how games render), it uses millions of tiny glowing “splats” of color and depth. AI reconstructs reality from your photos. The result loads on a phone and looks like you’re THERE. The grift opportunity is even wilder: Freelancers are already charging $300–$800 per scan for realtors, Airbnbs, venues, car dealers, museums. One person + one phone + one weekend = a business. Open source. Built on PlayCanvas. Free GitHub: github.com/playcanvas

@stocktrade2day @KenjiCapital @adiix_official 😂

@ProbableChris @KenjiCapital @adiix_official Searching for a house and walking thru it