Gavin Murphy

3.1K posts

Gavin Murphy banner
Gavin Murphy

Gavin Murphy

@realgavinmurphy

Markets and macro

Dubai, United Arab Emirates Katılım Eylül 2020
1.2K Takip Edilen226 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Gavin Murphy
Gavin Murphy@realgavinmurphy·
The wealthiest 1% of Americans now pay nearly HALF of all income taxes, and more than the bottom 95% put together.
English
2
2
16
1.1K
Gavin Murphy retweetledi
Liam Halligan
Liam Halligan@LiamHalligan·
International creditors are alarmed that of the £132bn Labour borrowed during the fiscal year to March, a jaw-dropping £110bn went on debt interest payments – almost the same as state education spending, twice what we spend on defence. Yes, the Tories left national debt north of 90pc of GDP. But this economically naive government has made a bad situation far worse. Now, with Labour lurching further left after getting hammered in recent local elections, the markets are calling time. It’s clear Keir Starmer will soon be replaced by someone even more leftwing. All leadership rivals in the frame would crank up borrowing and spending even more than Labour already has since taking office in July 2024. Back then, the Office for Budget Responsibility was forecasting state borrowing of £323bn by the end of the fiscal year 2029. Labour’s run-away spending and growth-crushing tax rises means that same five-year borrowing forecast is now £583bn – 80pc higher. But the trade unions, MPs and Labour activists who will choose Starmer’s successor want even more. Since Labour took office, the UK’s 10-year gilt yield has risen by 1.16 percentage points (or 116 basis points), compared to 86bps in France, 79bps in Germany and just 17bps in Italy. 🧵6/7
Liam Halligan tweet media
English
58
684
1.4K
42.9K
Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
Iran's latest document centers on war-ending negotiations and confidence-building measures it expects from the American side, per N12.
English
22
29
263
37.1K
Gavin Murphy retweetledi
Paul Saladino, MD
Paul Saladino, MD@paulsaladinomd·
The best foods for babies?
English
79
433
5.1K
405.1K
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Three drones reached the Arab world's only nuclear power plant Sunday. Two were intercepted. One struck the generator. Iran denies. The IRGC blamed Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones from Iraqi airspace the same day. Trump posted: "For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them." Tuesday Putin lands in Beijing. Tuesday Trump's National Security Council meets on military options against Iran. The summit's diplomatic afterglow lasted 48 hours. Barakah runs four Korean APR-1400 reactors producing 5,600 megawatts and supplies roughly 25 percent of UAE electricity. The three drones approached from the western border. UAE air defenses intercepted two. The third penetrated to an external electrical generator outside the inner perimeter. One reactor switched briefly to emergency diesel. No injuries. No radiation release. The IAEA called for "maximum restraint." It was the first operational strike on Barakah since the plant came online in 2020. The UAE Defense Ministry called it an "unprovoked terrorist act" and reserved the "right to respond." No group has claimed responsibility. Iranian state media denied involvement. IRGC-affiliated Defa Press blamed Saudi Arabia, citing the western-border approach. Saudi Arabia confirmed it intercepted three drones the same day, all entering from Iraqi airspace, and warned of "necessary operational measures" to defend its sovereignty. Drones have been launched from Iraq toward Gulf countries since the April ceasefire. The Iraqi-airspace origin undermines the IRGC Saudi-blame framing. UAE diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash posted on X that the strike was carried out "directly by the principal actor or through one of its proxies." The veiled reference to Iran is the closest UAE attribution to date. In March the IRGC openly claimed similar strikes on UAE aluminum facilities. This time the playbook switched to deniability. Trump posted the "clock is ticking" message on Truth Social Sunday. He called the Iranian proposal "totally unacceptable" and the ceasefire on "massive life support." He spoke with Netanyahu. The National Security Council convened Saturday at Trump's Virginia golf club. Vance, Witkoff, Rubio, and Ratcliffe attended. A Tuesday May 19 Situation Room meeting will review military options, Axios reported. The Pentagon is preparing to rename Operation Epic Fury as Operation Sledgehammer to reset the 60-day War Powers Resolution clock. NBC News reported the contingency May 12. The legal architecture for resumed combat is staged. The USS Gerald R. Ford returned to Norfolk May 16 after 326 days, the longest US carrier deployment since Vietnam. The UAE national air defense system layers THAAD, Patriot PAC-3, Barak-8, KM-SAM, Pantsir-S1, and indigenous SkyKnight. The Defense Ministry has reported 2,265 drones and 572 missiles intercepted since February 28. The two-of-three rate at Barakah is the first documented perimeter penetration of an operational Gulf nuclear site. Putin lands in Beijing on Tuesday May 19 for a two-day visit marking the 25th anniversary of the Sino-Russian Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation. Xi and Putin will sign a joint declaration. Russia receives the Trump-Xi summit debrief on the same calendar window when Trump's team deliberates strikes on Iran. Brent crude rose 1.86 percent to $111.29 per barrel by late Sunday, a two-week high. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and India condemned the Barakah strike. The summit's headline deliverables were rose seeds, 200 Boeing jets, and a "very good negotiating chip" held in abeyance. The Friday inversion meets the Sunday strike. Tuesday is the structural test. Trump deliberates strike options while Putin signs the friendship declaration. The Ford is home from sea. The Gulf burns while Beijing celebrates. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
English
21
63
219
39.2K
Gavin Murphy
Gavin Murphy@realgavinmurphy·
@DavidLammy So you ‘hate’ the protestors? Isn’t that a hate crime?
English
0
0
0
9
David Lammy
David Lammy@DavidLammy·
The Unite the Kingdom march organisers are spreading hatred and division. They do not reflect the Britain I’m proud of. Peaceful protest is a fundamental right and one I will always protect. But if protest turns violent, we will act swiftly, with extra court capacity in place.
English
21.2K
678
3.8K
1.8M
Gavin Murphy
Gavin Murphy@realgavinmurphy·
I believe the bond market is already starting to price in this absolute economic train wreck of a successor to Starmer
Anglo Futurism Capital LP 🇬🇧🐿️@RollingHedge

Let’s check his CV shall we? Burnham’s professional trajectory is entirely inside the Westminster bubble: 1994-97: Researcher to Tessa Jowell MP 1997: Parliamentary officer, NHS Confederation (a few months) 1997-98: Administrator, Football Task Force 1998-2001: Special adviser to Culture Secretary Chris Smith 2001-17: MP for Leigh 2003-05: Parliamentary Private Secretary 2005-06: Parliamentary Under-Secretary, Home Office 2006-07: Minister of State for Health 2007-08: Chief Secretary to the Treasury 2008-09: Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport 2009-10: Secretary of State for Health 2010-15: Various shadow cabinet roles under Miliband (Health, Education) 2015-16: Shadow Home Secretary under Corbyn 2010, 2015: Two failed Labour leadership bids (fourth, then second to Corbyn) 2017-present: Mayor of Greater Manchester No private sector experience, no market-facing role, no operational P&L. Three years of unpaid intern journalism between Cambridge and the Jowell job is the closest he gets to the real economy. Signature mayoral achievement is Bee Network bus franchising. “King of the North” branding crystallised in the October 2020 Tier 3 funding row. Currently the only UK politician with a net positive polling rating, which is why his name keeps surfacing as the Starmer alternative; though the NEC blocked his 2026 Gorton and Denton by-election bid, and his recent comments on bond markets and defence spending unsettled gilts, tells you all you need to know about the gap between his instincts and the constraints he’d actually inherit.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Would be a fucking car crash. Classic. Can’t wait.

English
0
0
1
16
Gavin Murphy retweetledi
Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
BREAKING: UAE discloses it’s building an additional second pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The new pipeline will be finished in 2027 and will double the country’s export capacity in Fujairah (the current pipeline has a capacity of 1.5-1.8m b/d)
Javier Blas tweet media
English
116
962
3.3K
484.9K
Gavin Murphy
Gavin Murphy@realgavinmurphy·
@ThePowerAudit Lei Jun trying to get a close up iris scan of Elon for the CCP. Elon making it difficult for him.
English
0
0
1
43
Chris Rollins
Chris Rollins@ThePowerAudit·
Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun might earn a few weeks vacation at CCP reeducation after this selfie with Elon Musk. The reverse is not happening and there is a clear power dynamic with the heavyweight U.S. business leaders in the room.
Chris Rollins tweet media
English
5
5
59
4.8K
Gavin Murphy retweetledi
Martin A. Armstrong
Martin A. Armstrong@ArmstrongEcon·
The rumors are that both the EU and India are contemplating using this new virus for lockdowns to force the price of oil back down. Oil during COVID fell to $6.50. Is this the new agenda to deal with an energy crisis?
English
58
291
1.4K
53.5K
Gavin Murphy retweetledi
Matt Goodwin
Matt Goodwin@GoodwinMJ·
Here are 4 things that happened to the UK in the last 24 hours: 1. The Labour government confirmed it will remove the right to a jury trial. Cases will be tried by a judge alone. 2. The Labour gvt confirmed it will impose Digital ID despite it never being included in Labour's manifesto and nearly 3 million Brits signing a petition against it. 3. The Labour gvt confirmed we will "align" with the European Union, directly going against the 2016 democratic vote for Brexit & forcing the British people to pay billions for laws they'll never be able to influence. 4. The Labour gvt confirmed that while Islamist sympathisers & antisemites are free to march on the streets of our capital city, & while it welcomes former allies of al-Qaeda into Downing Street, it has banned conservative activists from joining a peaceful protest against mass immigration in London. Put all these things together and you get a sense - just a sense - of how hideously authoritarian and illiberal this Labour government really is.
English
971
10.9K
34.7K
648.5K
Gavin Murphy retweetledi
Anglo Futurism Capital LP 🇬🇧🐿️
The asset-rich middle is the designated payer, as usual. Not the top, who have trusts, BPR, agricultural relief, and lifetime gifting advice. Not the bottom, who have nothing to tax. The squeeze is - true to form - on the band roughly £500k to £2m of estate, which is now a terraced house in Wandsworth plus a DC pot. Threshold frozen at £325k since 2009. Houses doubled. That’s the tax rise. No vote, no debate, no despatch box. Inflation does the work. IHT take: £2.7bn then, £8.5bn now, £14bn by 2030. Share of estates paying: 2.7% to nearly 10%. Not because Britain got richer. Because the number stayed still. Pensions in scope from April 2027 sits on top. Threshold was calibrated for a world where pensions were outside the estate. Removing the exemption without uprating is a double tightening. Hence the £34k average extra bill. Same trick everywhere. Income tax bands frozen. Personal allowance taper. Dividend allowance gutted. Savings allowance. £40bn a year by 2028 per the IFS. Zero rate changes. Closing a loophole is just the cover story. The policy is a stealth wealth tax on the asset-rich middle, collected by inflation.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Expect more of these taxes as the state continues to spend spend spend.
Neil McCoy-Ward@NeilMcCoyWard

🚨Your pension is about to be raided and HMRC just confirmed how.... From April 2027, pension schemes will be allowed to withhold up to half of your retirement savings to cover inheritance tax. They can hold onto that money for up to 15 months while they work out what is owed Pensions used to sit outside inheritance tax entirely. From April 2027 they get hit with the standard 40% rate like everything else So your family loses up to 40% of what you spent a lifetime saving. The pension company sits on the other half for over a year before anyone sees a penny. Funeral costs, mortgage payments, school fees, none of it can be covered while the money is locked up The policy was announced by Rachel Reeves in the 2024 Budget. The operational detail confirming the 50% withholding rule was quietly published by HMRC this week, with final guidance not due until spring 2027, weeks before the deadline 10,500 estates will be dragged into inheritance tax for the first time. Another 38,500 will pay more. Average extra bill, £34,000 And this is how these things always work. The threshold starts high, the public is told it only affects the wealthy, and the numbers stay frozen while everything else rises The inheritance tax threshold has been stuck at £325,000 since 2009. House prices have nearly doubled in that time Every year, more ordinary families get pulled in without a single rule changing The government calls this closing a loophole. What it actually does is treat your pension like another revenue stream for the Treasury. Money you saved out of taxed income gets taxed again on the way out If you have a pension, this affects you. Check what your scheme is planning before April 2027 arrives Follow me to stay informed

English
17
84
401
35.8K
Josh Philip Phair
Josh Philip Phair@JoshPhilipPhair·
China is making some major moves the Silver market. Acquiring vast physical metal flow. In advance of something? My hunch would be yes.
English
40
135
1.2K
130.5K
Gavin Murphy retweetledi
Michael Strong
Michael Strong@flowidealism·
If your child reads and writes for 5,000 to 10,000 hours before the age of 13, they're going to be more developed than a child who gets 1,000 to 2,000 hours in school and then goes home to watch screens. The math is simple. You can't really do enough reading and writing.
English
13
118
1.1K
30.7K
Gavin Murphy
Gavin Murphy@realgavinmurphy·
UK 10 year yields now at levels from 2008 GFC & look like they have much further to go. A real financial crisis doom loop is coming for the UK & the next PM is likely going to make it even worse. Higher debt interest payments, lower tax take, higher deficit. #UK #UK10Y
English
0
0
0
15