retro

in the internet age it is increasingly easier to become pessimistic about the world around you. we want to feel unique and blame our misfortunes on unprecedented times, but we are not unique and the world continues to spin the same way the pessimist wishes for the world to collapse so that he is right and all who had achieved greater things than he are deservingly brought down to the peril that is his permanent state the over-conscious man is cursed while the optimist thrives. we must live with gratitude and know that there has never been a better time to be alive. loneliness is a curable disease and you must spend your time with beautiful people so that you know happiness and are able to cast it further i would rather live a week knowing the beauty of the world than a lifetime awaiting the apocalypse. tomorrow is not worth living if you are wishing for others to suffer or the world to grieve how fortunate we are to share the same air with all those who came before us, how grateful i am to all those born into suffering so that i may know peace, how thankful i am to those who committed their entire lifetime to the pursuit of improving the wellbeing of the world a society grows great when old men plant trees in whose shade they shall never sit. seed happiness in people who you will never see thrive, appreciate others for what they are capable of even in their darkest hours, seek beauty in the ordinary the doomers are the only ones who are truly doomed, tell your family you love them and call a friend you haven't spoke to in a while. prove to yourself that there is greatness in the world around you, then find the inspiration to add to it you can only do great things by being an optimist and believing they might be possible, reject nihilism and those unwilling to risk failure. know that in great attempts, it is glorious even to fail may your sky always be clear, may your dear smile always be bright and happy, and may you be for ever blessed for that moment of bliss and happiness which you gave to another lonely and grateful heart long live the optimists who continue to believe and contribute to a better world fuck bears

1/ Pouring one out for all those who were impacted by the FTX collapse. If you lost more money than you can afford, I'm so sorry. I promise it will get better. I'm exhausted. Have been thinking a lot about what happens from here, and what it means for this industry.

- token design is mega broken, buybacks are dumb and their execution is even dumber. Lockups are dumb. Thankfully everyone thinks airdrops are dumb so at least we established that. Need to rethink it from first principles (god I hate that expression) and see more experimentation

Phase 1 of a new narrative -Mini mania -Participants speculate more and ape more freely wanting any slice of the pie -Greater dispersion Phase 2 -Consolidation into leaders -Particpants have had more time to evaluate plays and work out which plays are higher quality 🍅 💨

the most important takeaway from this turmoil (or the last 2 years of this bull run) is that your heroes are neither intelligent nor risk aware and in the end we're all swimming naked most who made it got there through airdrops insider trading memecoins casino promotions & token deals next to no 'kols' made money trading perps, hard to find besides jamie and a few other tame accounts even harder finding someone who ran it up onchain without blowing it back on perps your onchain kol is an idiot, the guy charting with lines is an idiot, the flow traders you follow probably dont know what they're doing either stop looking for gurus and start thinking for yourself

I think we are literally living in the biggest gold rush in human history. What a time to be alive.

Umbra Avici Edel The only safe place for a sheep is by the side of his shepherd Buy and close your eyes, optimists are in control

i’m optimistic about 2026 and it scares me i’m never optimistic

There are five narratives I expect to have strong momentum in 2026 -Privacy -Robotics -Sol Perps -Prediction markets -Ownership coins Of the above, I think privacy will be the first narrative to play out in 2026 in Q1. Robotics I see as the best chance of crypto seeing a similar season to the ai one we saw play out in Q4 2024. In my view a big part of why ai szn took off exponentially in crypto was because at the time it was one of the few ways retail could get liquid ai exposure with minimal friction. I foresee a similar scenario playing out with robotics this year ahead of a few strong launches coming up. Perps will always stay relevant in the historically volatile world of crypto and sol is yet to see its own HL emerge. Few upcoming launches this year looking to establish themselves as the go to perp dex on Sol. Prediction markets, whether you love them or hate them they are only increasing in popularity and both kalshi and Polymarket look to be two of the biggest launches we’ve seen. A narrative playing out around their launches seems inevitable. Ownership coins had a strong finish to 2025 and I expect interest and demand for them grow further in 2026. In the maturing crypto world, investors are increasingly looking for projects where tokens actually make sense and that’s what ownership coins provide - a genuine usecase for tokens. Coins which fit into the first four narratives and are simultaneously ownership coins I expect to perform particularly well when the relevant narratives play out. Right now, there is only one project live which fits into one of the first four, and is also an ownership coin……