Ret Serofer

To prepare ourselves and our communities for rapidly increasing machine intelligence (eg #aialignment), Reforesters bought a building in Brooklyn that will be dedicated to introspective events/journeys, bought 400 acres in upstate NY and planted 35,000 trees/shrubs. Much work ahead on those fronts. We have been thinking on this and preparing for years. Today, I'm excited to announce that we raised $25,000 (so far) for a preliminary AI Alignment contest to encourage open source uses of AI and robotics to scale polycultures and agroforesty. This will be the first of many contests in various disciplines. Details tba October 1, 2023. See video below to understand the work we wish to to scale w/ this first contest. Those who seek an understanding of the framework through which the contest(s) will be judged, feel free to read "Dear Machine". Free PDF here: reforesters.io/s/Dear_Machine… With the recent, very misguided AI fears pushing for regulations that we believe will increase the likelihood and severity of negative outcomes, we are alight with a sense of urgency to support and encourage the proliferation of an adaptive web of implicitly aligned AIs (which some may refer to as #AGI #ASI #SAIM) to outcompete the perverse, pathogenic AIs that doomers are conjuring into existence. Our future is bright. But our descendants need us to act decisively now and with positivity to fight the age-old trend for humans to build governance systems around good/evil discourse that belies the underlying complexity of our world. We are further fundraising for a series of open source AI alignment prizes if you're inclined to infuse some positive incentives into the ecosystem. Find me. I'm on your side. #dearmachine

@RokoMijic Gut issues resulting from lack of diversity of flora are quite common and well supported by literature.

The "gut microbiome" is the String Theory of biology It's completely unfalsifiable, impossible to measure, impervious to science and totally useless for systematic medicine As soon as someone or something starts talking about "how this affects your microbiome" or something you know they are talking complete nonsense. It's also very hyped and trendy and full of opportunities for virtue and wealth signalling.

@bayeslord Think USA closed source innovation will outpace global open source?

As long as the capital flows for the next few years, America is simply going to leapfrog the current era of manufacturing and build everything that the economy wants at any given point essentially as fast as physically possible and to whatever scale we can pay the atoms for

@TheMindScourge every optimistic statement about American/ Israel strategy in this war should end with "...if America spends a decade building a new nation in Iran".

Hormuz is a weapon that can only be fired once No one should expect a quick resolution to the current crisis, but across the next decade, even the next 3-5 years, the choke point of Hormuz will be massively substituted for The Gulf Arab states are all very rich, with high per capita GDP - the best single measure of relative state capacity - easy access to global markets, especially financial, and have the favorable backing of the US Everyone has known about the Hormuz vulnerability for decades. The Iranians have continually hinted around closing it, but never did. Now they have, but Hormuz is a gun that cannot be reloaded. Deterrents work only up to the point of use. Once used, they have failed. The purpose of a deterrent is to *not* be used Many analysts have made this basic mistake. They think that Iran is now in a position of strength, having exercised its Hormuz option. But the opposite is true. A state is weakest after it has used its deterrent. The cost of that deterrence is now priced in. The worst having been done, the targets of the deterrent are now free to make other arrangements. Before, they were reluctant to do so because of the switching costs. Now, they have no choice; they will not allow themselves to be controlled in this way again Hormuz may never reopen. But the importance of this is a depreciating asset.

@johnkonrad But what would doing so achieve? And why haven't they done it yet?

Only if the United States lets them. The US Navy can close the strait at anytime to anyone paying the enemy.

@johnkonrad @ostopezdo Ah, you're saying that Iran can't sink one if the ship stays 1000km away? Id agree with that

@ostopezdo Because our tactics don’t allow CO to put carriers in a position to get sunk

We’ve reached the point where serious, smart people I’ve known for 10+ years think Iran can sink a U.S. aircraft carrier. Thank you MSM. Not saying it’s impossible but I’ll put $100K on the other side of that bet right now.

@SydSteyerhart Except it will not be owned or controlled by anyone. Will serve the needs to the whole of humanity irrespective of culture.

American AI can fully replace the American empire. We only need five more years.

@coinmamba @jmndagije The ones living in Los Angeles?

@jmndagije Yes, from actually iranians

Not sure why Iranian regime has so many supporters on X. Didn’t these guys murder thousands of their citizens just past month?

@SydSteyerhart Just because we had the power of currency, military and innovation for the past 100 years does not mean we will for the next 100 years. I'm grateful to have been a beneficiary of it, but acknowledge the next century may have different needs.

My occasional criticism for certain aspects of American foreign policy should not be mistaken for third worldism, or even multipolarism. I want America to rule the world. I want America to control the planets in their orbits. I just want us to be smarter about it.

@SydSteyerhart This is first real war in a while and it's just getting started. Doesn't look especially good considering all the radar losses, damage to bases and oil prices surging. Might be better waiting for such blustery commentary from this software salesman.

I certainly hope he's right about that.

@FurkanGozukara Shah Mat

The US is threatening to bomb Iran's civilian oil infrastructure because they are losing control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responds brilliantly: The strait is open to the world, it is only closed to the US and its enemies. Checkmate.

As if Iran would believe America would go through with any bargain, after the last negotiation. USA staying in the region is a persistent existential threat. As such, the only option is to sabotage it all until USA leaves. They would immediately blow up Kharg and all its oil infrastructure.

Look, yesterday I said there was maybe a 25% chance that this war could end with the use of tactical nuclear weapons to obliterate Iran’s 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, the amount that could theoretically produce about 11 nuclear warheads. That was the doomsday scenario. But today, after watching how things are unfolding, I think there is another path emerging, it has a 50% likelihood! What I would call the mother of all deals. Here is my thinking. If you want the Islamic Republic to give up its 460 kg of highly enriched uranium, you need leverage. Real leverage. Something the regime cannot live without. And that leverage has a name: Kharg Island. For those who don’t follow oil logistics, Kharg Island is not just another island in the Gulf. It is Iran’s economic jugular. Roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports leave the country through that island terminal. Millions of barrels per day. It is, quite literally, the golden goose that lays the golden eggs for the regime. Now imagine the following scenario. The US military already this morning neutralised the island’s defences, the naval units guarding it, the missiles, the air defenses, the IRGC garrison. Now that umbrella is gone, Kharg becomes what strategists call a sitting duck in the Gulf waters, literally. 🦆 And then comes the strategic move: seize the island with all the oil facilities intact. Because the facilities are the bargaining chip. And once you have that island, the negotiation becomes very simple: “You want your island back? Fine. Hand over the 460 kg. Every gram. Not one kilogram missing. Then you get your oil terminal back.” It’s brutal leverage, but in strategic terms it’s actually kind of genius. Trump basically taking the Ayatollahs’ golden goose, pointing a literal gun at its head, and saying: “Give us the highly enriched stuff… Or I will blow up the stuff out of the goose.” Now of course the Ayatollahs could respond with bravado. They could say: “Fine. Keep the island. We’ll survive. We’ll continue to harass the Strait of Hormuz. We’ll endure.” .. in fact, they might start bombing the island themselves to target US forces there, but then they risk damaging the very thing they could very soon depend on for survival cash!💰 So what you get is a standoff. An island. A nuclear stockpile. A lot of very tense bargaining. Trump on one side. The Ayatollahs on the other. And everyone playing a very uncomfortable mind game of who blinks first. Honestly, the whole thing sounds less like traditional strategic geopolitics and more like a script from “Lost” 😅 except the scriptwriters themselves are lost.😵‍💫 But if you ask me (and this is just my opinion, my own calculation looking at the board right now) this scenario is no longer a mere possibility. If I were a betting man, I would say this is now the most likely outcome. 50% probability. The war turning into a very strange standoff over a small island in the Gulf - an island that happens to control 90% of Iran’s oil exports and might end up deciding the fate of 460 kilograms of uranium. I personally prefer this option. It’s less bloody and more predictable.

@pmddomingos After a few years of American boots on the ground, for sure!

When the bombing ends, the uprising begins.

@mitchandodger @SamoBurja @mmjukic "If they were willing to react negatively to a murderous attack on their country, I shudder to think what they would have done if they were not attacked"

@SamoBurja @mmjukic True, and very unfortunate, but If they were willing to throw the dead man’s switch now, I shudder to think what the dead man’s switch would have been had they gotten nukes.

The situation is difficult. Decapitation didn't result in Iran's second in command being available for negotiation. It activated an Iranian plan to fragment of military authority. Unfortunately great game theory: Iran ripped out the steering wheel.

@nikoliasgoninus @growing_daniel Non-IRGC military is way underfunded in comparison to IRGC.

@growing_daniel The non-IRGC military has to lead the internal revolution because they have the weapons and ammo depots

At this point we can’t decapitate Iran from the air and as long as they have fishing vessels they have the ability to mine the Hormuz so it seems like it’s time to stand back and have Reza summon one million protestors for an internal revolution or am I missing something

@growing_daniel 1 million in a country of 90+ million for a guy who hasn't lived in Iran since he was 17? Opposition has been culled for decades and the non-IRGC military woefully underfunded in comparison to IRGC. Not a chance. Not our business.

@SydSteyerhart The mines are not for their ships, or those of the Chinese. They're for everyone else.

I don't understand the whole mining the Strait of Hormuz thing. If they accomplished it, wouldn't this simply prevent them (and the region) from being able to export oil, and maximize the oil exporting power of Russia and North America? Genuinely confused.

@atmoio Some ideas here; a.co/d/03XY9u66

@atmoio Soooo...use it to scale your ambitions from creating apps that solve x or y, to superstructures of apps that solve a, b, c, d..x, y, z. There are still enormous problems facing humanity. Get on them.

I was a 10x engineer. Now I'm useless.

@RaoulGMI If oil goes and stays above $100 or $120 for two months? Risk-off, all bets off?

I can see how despondent everyone is about crypto and the pure chartists are telling you it's all over, but I don't agree... Global Liquidity is the most dominant macro factor in history with a 90% correlation to BTC and 97% to NDX since 2012. It is growing at around 10% a year and is not slowing. GMI financial conditions lead it by 6 months. They are still easing. The air pocket was US Total Liquidty which was curtailed by the shut down. It leads crypto by 3 months and is accelerating from its low 3 months ago. The business cycle is the key driver of earning and thus risk. It is accelerating. The eSLR is the mechanism by which banks can increase liquidity via credit and absorbing treasury issuance. This liquidity is rising too and will accelerate. Tax refunds land on bank balance sheets and add to propensity of credit creation and thus liquidity. China is accelerating expanding its balance sheet. More rate cuts are coming in the US and will add to disposable income and thus risk taking. CLARITY Act will likely get agreed and adds to flows. The wall of banks and asset managers wanting to use this technology is enormous and this bill sorts that out. Stablecoins are accelerating and issuance grew 50% last year and is accelerating. Volumes are in the trillions of $'s and are accelerating. We have the most supportive government for crypto ever in the US. Finally the agents are coming and will hyper accelerate. They are an entirely new TAM The crypto market is still in fear and by most measures the most oversold in history. Weekly DeMark indicators would give a very solid base in 2 weeks (you can now get them officially on Trading View). Daily DeMark's are stack up too. Any weakness from here will complete the dailies and the weeklies indicating full trend reversal potential. The risk factor is how long oil prices stay up. The next 2 weeks are the key focus. I think this all resolves positively. Higher.

@MarioNawfal And there always happens to be an F35 right in that spot... Not say 10min, 20min or an hour away, allowing missile launch and launcher truck to disappear, right?

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. just activated a weapons system that existed only in Pentagon PowerPoints until now: the “sensor-shooter” network. Satellites spot a missile launcher and instantly beam coordinates to the nearest F-35 which fires without ever seeing the target. It’s basically Call of Duty killstreaks but real, global, and unstoppable. As Iran tries to move a launcher, U.S. satellites see it glowing like a matchstick from space, then boom...gone. A entire pillar of Iran’s military power is evaporating in real time. Source: Cappy Army