RGK
397 posts

RGK
@rgkrobertwill
Way of the turtle 🐢. #ThereIsNoMagicPill #AvoidTheLoosers
Venezuela Katılım Nisan 2017
1.3K Takip Edilen111 Takipçiler
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Over time, due to aging demographics, governments need to borrow more money to support GDP growth to pay interest on the debt.
At over 100% of GDP in debt there isn't enough economic cash flow to fund the debt growth so it gets "printed" via Fed Net Liquidity and also forced, via regulation, onto the balance sheet of the banks.
That debases the currency and lowers the denominator, optically making scarce assets more valuable.
Crypto (Mainly Bitcoin) is the life raft as it not only offsets the annual 8% debasement but also gains value due to adoption effects.
These two charts remain the most important chart in all macro and the ones the least people understand.
It's all demographics. It always has been
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1. Trump is more popular with young people than old people. Most young people don’t own stocks or homes (aka they are asset-light).
2. Trump is also more popular amongst working and middle class folks. Most of these folks are also asset-light.
It stands to reason that a fall in asset prices (stocks down or home prices down) have very little impact on his core constituents. To that end, I won’t be surprised if Trump has little reaction, then, to an equity or home price market correction.
Separately, the upside of shrinking these asset prices is that it gives the folks mentioned above a legitimate chance to buy into those markets at lower levels, making equity ownership and/or home ownership more possible.
Tangentially, if Trump figures out how to get rents lower, he will unite young people and asset-light working people into a reliable voting block for the foreseeable future. He will have given them the trifecta: cheaper stocks, cheaper homes, lower rent.
Said differently, don’t presume that the stock market going up is a useful barometer anymore. In fact, it going down may be a better signal for his popularity.
Time will tell.
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RGK retweetledi

I posted these the other day but I'm still not sure people yet understand them... and they are the MOST important charts in all of macro/crypto....
Aging population = lower GDP growth
Lower GDP = higher debt to service the aging population.
With high debt and low growth, the Fed needs to create liquidity to service the debt = debasement
Demographics are destiny until the robots + AI scale (2030+), thus debt up, liquidity up = number go up.
It really is that simple with a longer-term time horizon. This is The Everything Code at a very high level.

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As expected tax receipts added roughly $200bn to TGA. Forget about the May Fed meeting the 2Q24 refunding annc comes out next week. What games will Yellen play, here are some options:
1. Stop issuing treasuries by running down the TGA to zero, that is a $1tn injection of liquidity.
2. Shift more borrowing to T-bills, which removes money from RRP, that is a $400bn injection of liquidity.
3. Combo of 1 and 2, issue no long term bonds, only bills and run down TGA and RRP at the same time, that is a $1.4tn injection of liquidity.
The Fed is irrelevant, Yellen is a bad bitch, you best respect her. If any of these three options happen, expect a rally in stonks and most importantly a re-acceleration of the #crypto bull market.

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A pod of orcas hunt crabeater seals using fluid dynamics and teamwork
twitter.com/i/status/17641…
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On a personal note, I want to be a good sport. Congratulations to all who are fully engaged in Bitcoin $BTC and other coins and see them as the bottom layer of the world's future monetary systems. I believe there is a chance for this to occur, with Bitcoin becoming an important store of wealth. My generation, Biden's generation (he belongs to the older "Post WW1 War" generation), and Gen Xers have been at the helm for the Great U.S. Debt Disaster. We've are responsible for loading debt upon debt upon Gen M and Gen Z. There is something revolutionary going on with crypto that the old Gold bulls cannot fathom. But you younger investors understand it -- and hopefully crypto can bail out the system, or at least generate incredible wealth for you. So, my ode to you is here.
Laser to your heart's delight. You deserve it.

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@lyu_johnny @ysiu @Pioneer_Jeff Hi Johnny I have a problem withdrawing some funds from your exchange. Customer support is unable to provide some help. Are you able to help me?
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@kucoincom Kucoin I have 6 days of delay with a pending withdrawal. I've been more than compliant with all the requested information with you customer support and haven't received and answer. my ticket numer is 3617264
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We are pleased to announce that the technical difficulties encountered with our 3D Secure One Time Password (OTP) system have been successfully resolved. You can now resume utilizing your #KuCard for online transactions requiring 3D Secure authentication with confidence. Thank you for your patience and understanding during this period.
➡️kucoin.com/announcement/k…
KuCoin@kucoincom
🚨 Attention #KuCard users! 🚨 We're addressing a technical issue with our 3D Secure OTP system, impacting online shopping. Please use alternative payment methods for now. Your security matters - never share your OTP! Thank you for your patience.
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@kucoincom you are halting my withdrawal for no apparent reason, I've been more than compliant with all the requested info and have not received and answer. my support ticket is 3617264
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