The observationist

818 posts

The observationist

The observationist

@rickyjackson33

In search of the truth. Interested in good faith debate from everyone.

Katılım Ekim 2022
133 Takip Edilen37 Takipçiler
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
The scariest fact for society and possibly consciousness as a whole is how the higher someone's IQ is, the less likely they are to have kids. Unless something changes, humanity will become genetically less intelligent over time due to natural selection.
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@cremieuxrecueil Your subscribers are almost exclusively from the western hemisphere, and above average intelligence. Your own study shows that smarter people choose blue more often. At which IQ threshold does blue cross the 50% margin? Will the global population be above that IQ threshold?
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Crémieux
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil·
Exceeded the target. Haven't looked at scores yet, but will note that reds were *much* less accurate when it came to identifying the threshold to save everyone. For red, it's 100%. For blue, it's 50%+1. Since this is obvious, I think the reds might just be partisan-brained.
Crémieux@cremieuxrecueil

I've received 166 wordsum scores plus blue/red button press results, and I'm so tempted to look, but I have to wait until I hit my target sample size of 2,350. Which side's button pushers will end up being more intelligent?

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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@JeremiahDJohns @estherzelda0514 It's definitely better than fiat currency in a lot of situations. If it ever replaced fiat currency though, it's built in deflation would destroy the stock market and in turn the economy. I'm guessing that's what they meant.
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Not a Good Jewish Girl✡️
Not a Good Jewish Girl✡️@estherzelda0514·
IQ tests: Marxism is bad Vaccines are good MAGA is bad Property taxes are good Tariffs are bad GMOs are good Coal is bad Voting is good Petty theft is bad Natural Parks are good Crypto is bad Nuclear is good Terrorism is bad Got any more?
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
Semi-disagree on MAGA and crypto, otherwise a pretty good list in my opinion. (The diehard MAGA supporters are bad, but overall I think a Harris presidency would have been worse. I would say I'm neutral on crypto, it's pretty cool and seems useful, but crypto bros suck.)
Not a Good Jewish Girl✡️@estherzelda0514

IQ tests: Marxism is bad Vaccines are good MAGA is bad Property taxes are good Tariffs are bad GMOs are good Coal is bad Voting is good Petty theft is bad Natural Parks are good Crypto is bad Nuclear is good Terrorism is bad Got any more?

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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@upsidechazwick @Duderichy By this logic everyone would choose red since 'their individual vote doesn't matter.' As the polls have proven, this is not the case. It doesn't matter if mothers should be perfectly logical, since most people aren't.
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the Rich
the Rich@Duderichy·
just to be clear, irl everyone is pressing the red button and everyone pressing the blue button is dying you going to tell your wife and kids to press blue? I don’t think so
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@JeremiahDJohns Giving the corrupt officer a lecture on ableism and biases as he gives me increasingly less subtle hints that he'll let me go if I just bribe him. He finally realizes it's pointless and decides to do the world a favor and hopes the corrupt judges will give me the death penalty.
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Jeremiah Johnson 🌐
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐@JeremiahDJohns·
"Ableism is when you take a vacation to Bali without weed" Solid bracket contender
Jeremiah Johnson 🌐 tweet media
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@yoggradon @Ayylmao63963350 @Duderichy If you say her vote doesn't change the result, then no one's individual vote would change the result, and everyone 'has to choose their own survival', which just doesn't happen, based on most polls. If ~55% aren't rational enough to choose red, why would mothers be an exception?
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@Ayylmao63963350 @Duderichy If an average of 2 kids pick red, and 2 pick blue, I think that illustrates the point perfectly. She might orphan her 2 kids, or she might save all 4 by picking blue. The main point I was making is that you don't necessarily get to 'coach' your kids into picking the right choice.
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Mr. Gibbs
Mr. Gibbs@Ayylmao63963350·
@rickyjackson33 @Duderichy Ehhh, idk on that last part. If her kids are randomly assigned like some ppl interpret the inclusion of “everyone” to mean, she’d have (on average) 2 kids picking red, who she’d orphan by picking blue and losing the ‘bet’. It’s easier to pick blue the fewer obligations you have
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@LeahLibresco Telling my wife we should go jump in the ocean, and then adding on "fully clothed" to make sure she doesn't get any sinful ideas about where the night is heading.
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Leah Libresco Sargeant
Leah Libresco Sargeant@LeahLibresco·
The NYT ran a special wedding planning section, and this quiz on preferences seems to omit one notable, traditional option.
Leah Libresco Sargeant tweet media
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@RuxandraTeslo Watching the officer's face melt as my hand slips into another dimension reaching for the ID in my pocket, while explaining to him that LSD causes no harm whatsoever to others and my community, therefore he can't give me a DWI for driving on acid.
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Ruxandra Teslo 🧬
Ruxandra Teslo 🧬@RuxandraTeslo·
Does anyone have access to the original Nutt et al study that was used to produce this plot? I find the idea that widespread heroin use would be less damaging than alcohol quite unconvincing
Ruxandra Teslo 🧬 tweet media
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@JimmyRu52630895 @waitbutwhy I never said the red team are sociopaths. What I said is that some people are willing to risk their lives for the possibility of saving others and that's not an irrational decision. It doesn't matter if rescue missions have a lower risk tolerance.
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Jimmy Rustles
Jimmy Rustles@JimmyRu52630895·
@rickyjackson33 @waitbutwhy Sometimes rock climbers get stuck in bad weather or hard to reach places. Helicoper rescues that are perfectly plausible are often not attempted for safety reasons. It’s not done because of sociopathy, it’s risk management, death minimization, and even then sometimes tossed aside
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Tim Urban
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy·
The thing is, the phrasing is part of the consideration. With phrasing like this, “blue” would never win so choosing it is automatic suicide, and very few people will end up dying anyway. It’s tougher when you know the phrasing will cause billions of people to choose blue.
Roko 🐉@RokoMijic

We're doing the "Blender" game again There is a large blender. Everyone in the world has to decide whether to step into the blender. If at least 50% of the people do step into the blender, it will be unable to overcome their inertia to get started, and everyone survives. If less than 50% of the people step into the blender, then they all get blended up into paste and die. People who do not step into the blender suffer no adverse effects. Would you step into the blender? (Blue=step into the blender, Red= don't do that)

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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@JimmyRu52630895 @waitbutwhy People die all the time risking their lives to save friends and family. The whole point is that the decision is made at an individual level, and that you don't know if your friends and family will die from you picking red. (Based on current polling, 58% would pick blue.)
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Jimmy Rustles
Jimmy Rustles@JimmyRu52630895·
@rickyjackson33 @waitbutwhy We’ve already agreed as a society that we don’t risk lives in a rescue operation, not too significantly at least. Standard practice is emergency situations. This is the most insanely risky rescue operation of all time. We should save who we can, not gamble on saving 100%, IMHO
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
Dr. House spinoff where instead of being an asshole that everyone puts up with bc he's a genius, Its a black doctor who thinks he's a genius, but in reality everyone is just putting up with his shenanigans bc he's the diversity hire
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@Vexarian @waitbutwhy If everyone is perfectly logical rationalists, they can think through the game theory and everyone picks red to survive. 58% of people chose blue in Tim's poll. Therefore picking blue can be a rational choice, because risking your life to save others is still rational.
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Vexarian
Vexarian@Vexarian·
@rickyjackson33 @waitbutwhy I don't think the problem with Team Blue is that they're stupid per-se, I think the problem is that they have toxic empathy. There's no rational reason for ANYONE to press the Blue Button, but they're tied up in knots about saving those who do.
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Wilfred Reilly
Wilfred Reilly@wil_da_beast630·
Why wouldn't every single person just press red, and live? There's sort of a left/right split in understanding here, I think. Society can function perfectly well if (1) half of all people risk their own lives to carry the least "moral" OR if (2) everybody literally just takes care of himself.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@Oahu5nackbar @wil_da_beast630 Where did you read moral "obligation"? If you read my tweet you would see that I would press red myself. If you're too autistic to see that some people would have reservations about the possibility of killing billions of midwits, there's no point arguing with you
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@rbrtcoloradosci @waitbutwhy This is pretty much my opinion on it as well. This, along with the justification that my 1 vote has ~0 impact on the results of an 8 billion person poll, so I might as well guarantee my survival.
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rober.coloradosci
rober.coloradosci@rbrtcoloradosci·
@rickyjackson33 @waitbutwhy As someone who voted red ... it is not that I want people to die (I don't) It is just that I dont't want to participate in a gamble where the stakes are my life
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@slop_bucket @waitbutwhy I still think more people would switch from blue to red, than vice versa, in real life. It's definitely not a clear cut situation though, I was mostly saying that X polls wouldn't be a great predictor for a real life or death scenario, and it shouldn't really be treated as such.
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Slop Bucket
Slop Bucket@slop_bucket·
I actually don't think it's clear more people would choose red in a real life scenario. It could honestly go either way. What prisoner's dilemma research shows is that increasing the stakes leads to less cooperation/risk taking. However, you then have to ask why are people choosing blue? What's their frame of reference? If the reference point for their risk orientation is around protecting a loved one or someone else, then that would actually mean increasing the stakes may make it more likely they choose blue. I think there's gonna be huge amount of individual variation here of course, but I'm not sure it's such a clear cut effect.
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@MomKrill @waitbutwhy I should've phrased my original tweet better, I think a lot of people (on both sides) genuinely do understand the question. I was mostly talking about a lot of the accounts on Twitter who keep putting out arguments that don't acknowledge the rational arguments from the other side
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✝️ 🇻🇦 Mom of Krills 🇻🇦 ✝️
✝️ 🇻🇦 Mom of Krills 🇻🇦 ✝️@MomKrill·
As someone who answered blue, it's not that I think an X poll is definitive. It's that their is a higher moral good to blue winning than vice versa... and my highest priority is also not my life, but the lives of my children (who under the blind vote rule I cannot know how they would've voted.)
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@waitbutwhy If many people change their answer based on the way it's phrased, there's too many midwits who might choose blue. And the fact that picturing a gruesome blender death, causes people to switch their answer, this proves that people switch their answer when stakes are higher
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The observationist
The observationist@rickyjackson33·
@waitbutwhy Two Twitter types who can't stop talking past each other: Red team: Pretending everyone is either 115+ IQ, or deserves to die for the crime of being a midwits. Blue team: Pretending people answering on zero-stakes X polls, would pick the same answer in a life-or-death situation
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Keşfet

@cremieuxrecueil @JeremiahDJohns @estherzelda0514 @upsidechazwick @Duderichy @yoggradon @Ayylmao63963350 @LeahLibresco