Cervello Capital

654 posts

Cervello Capital

Cervello Capital

@riskadjoptimist

CNS/metabolic disease investor, biopharma lawyer, gambler and coach. Mostly wrong. Never investment advice.

Los Angeles, CA Katılım Ocak 2023
417 Takip Edilen392 Takipçiler
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
Been absolutely loading $TGTX. Went back and listened to the BofA call with MW. There are 40000 new patients starting on -CD20s each year. MW said capturing 10% “is probably high this year” so using 5% and 59k we get $120M sales for 23’ and this seems to be well on pace. 1/4
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@Biomaven We owe him gratitude. He is our $TGTX dark knight. His insane models help keep a lid on the stock and preserve our ability to keep gathering.
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Peter Suzman
Peter Suzman@Biomaven·
This BoA analyst on $TGTX is the most extreme examples of a biased analyst at a major IB that I have ever seen. He keeps raising long term revenue estimates, but always finds some excuse to maintain a price target dramatically below the stock price. Once upon a time it was the threat from the Ocrevus "subq" that of course never emerged. Now complaining about increased operating expenses even though the company has noted it is currently expensing an inventory build for subq that should serve to reduce COGS when it is finally launched.
zipjet@zipjet

$TGTX For TG Therapeutics, BofA said the company's Q2 results "should again center on whether Briumvi can keep outpacing already-raised expectations." Also, TG Therapeutics' comments on operating expenses will be important after the company's Q1 results showed "meaningful sequential increases" in research and development as well as selling, general and administrative expenses, the note said. BofA increased its outer-year Briumvi estimates to "reflect greater franchise stability following recent updates." The investment firm raised TG Therapeutics' price objective to $20 from $17 and reiterated the company's Underperform rating.

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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@zipjet At this point you have to respect Alec’s inability to let it go. A true $TGTX hater through and through. Reminds me of the haters ball skit
GIF
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zipjet
zipjet@zipjet·
$TGTX For TG Therapeutics, BofA said the company's Q2 results "should again center on whether Briumvi can keep outpacing already-raised expectations." Also, TG Therapeutics' comments on operating expenses will be important after the company's Q1 results showed "meaningful sequential increases" in research and development as well as selling, general and administrative expenses, the note said. BofA increased its outer-year Briumvi estimates to "reflect greater franchise stability following recent updates." The investment firm raised TG Therapeutics' price objective to $20 from $17 and reiterated the company's Underperform rating.
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@tarrikzaid @Andre_AGTC At this MC and clinical point why not just buy the $HELP shares and hold for the ride? 10x upside compared to $DFTX with similar P2 data and differentiated product. The option tape looks meh and dec 18 is tight. Q4 26 deadlines often slip in my experience.
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Tarrik Zaid
Tarrik Zaid@tarrikzaid·
@Andre_AGTC @riskadjoptimist you think they will be on time ? dec seems a bit dicey with current Mgx , I was personally looking into jan but the spread is too wide
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@Andre_AGTC $TGTX is an interesting comp for this. Briumvi was late to the party but its a faster and cheaper infusion that’s similar enough to the other anti CD20s. Now its rapidly sucking up mkt share
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Andre-ACGT
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC·
My pricec targets for the bios of interest $PVLA 2.1B MC Target 8B (280% upside) based on 3.3B peak sales and 2.5 multiple $COGT 6.6B MC Target 13B (100% upside) based on 5.2B peak sales and 2.5 multiple. Jefferies has 15B target $CMPS 1.8B MC Target 5B (180% upside) based on 3.5B peak sales and 1.4 multiple (limited IP) $BLTE 6B MC Target 12.5B (110% upside) based on 5B peak rev and 2.5 multiple
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC

Plan for next week to use some of the $CRNX cash. If market cooperates may add to: $PVLA MC 2.1B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta… $CMPS MC 1.8B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta… $BLTE MC 6B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta… $COGT 6.6B x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta…

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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@Andre_AGTC What do you think about $HELP having an identical MoA, similar efficacy but better clinic positioning with a faster on/off compound? I like the $CMPS peak sales estimate (basically replacing a lot of Spravato and growing the mkt) but I worry about them with $HELP on their heels.
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@JofallT7 @zipjet @Andre_AGTC My old boss/mentor used to say “we’ll do our models, they’ll do their models, we’ll argue about whose models are right for a bit, then we’ll just use a recent comp”
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zipjet
zipjet@zipjet·
Buyout of biotechs, how much? Call it 4X probability adjusted Peak Revenue. Think $OCUL, $TGTX, and $LQDA.
zipjet tweet media
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@JofallT7 @zipjet @Andre_AGTC Usually around 7 years isn’t it? My issue with these types of things is all the false precision that goes into it. No one really knows. Can do deals on 2x reasonably expected peak and it’ll probably be fine.
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Superveg
Superveg@veg_super·
$xene the call buyer from a dew days ago. Does he think xene will get bought for 10b+?
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@DueDoctor You think UC and Cro is 10B peak? That seems high. Nearly every research report comes in peak $4-7B. But I guess skyrizi does make one think…
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DoctorDueDiligence
DoctorDueDiligence@DueDoctor·
I don’t know who needs to hear this but $ABVX has already showed their cards 1. ATM was oversubscribed, essentially a sweet heart deal 2. Closed in one day (not standard) 3. The MGMT basically said they want to sell if price is right 4. If/when Crohns hits it essentially becomes too big to buy for most companies I don’t see a way forward unless it is a quick sale Reuters reported before latest data follow up multiple buyers The one holdback is - what price? This holdback is solved by one fact and one fact only Multiple bidders = FOMO Biotechs don’t sell, they get bought If you have Crohns hit it is a $10BN revenue It’s basically pay less now vs pay more later if you expect it to hit I absolutely expect one or more pharmas to bid heavily and see Crohns as a call option So what will Abivax MGMT do? You absolutely sell if you can get $220 or more a share For the sweetheart ATM that’s a 76% increase in short time There’s just too much at stake and a MGMT that imo does NOT want to launch a drug
Canned Salmon Connoisseur@CloisterRes

$ABVX really is in an odd spot. This thing should be up much more than it is. But there are no catalysts in the near term? But everyone knows it's going to get bought out in the near term? But buyout is getting pretty big number up here? But pharma buying multiple $10b companies?

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Mason
Mason@masonat7·
$CRBP CRB-913 seems to have been entirely written off due to the psych AEs seen with $NVO monlunabant and 913's phase 1a results showing 3 cases of anxiety. But I'd argue that the "peripheral restriction" hypothesis hasn't even been adequately tested yet.
Mason tweet media
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@Andre_AGTC @aditharun_ BPD would be incredible. With $BHVN failing there with similar MoA I don’t have a ton of hope but maybe with the increased GABA activation that may actually help with BPD. We’ll see
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Andre-ACGT
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC·
@riskadjoptimist @aditharun_ Read this. Just FOS BPD (if it works as well as FOS) will add another 10B to the TAM The key point is that it will be the first approved drug in large population First to the large market is huge plus x.com/Andre_AGTC/sta…
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC

$XENE 1.8M FOS pts diagnosed 30-40% of them are drug resistant i.e. pts who continue to have recurring sezures despite taking 2-3 ASMs It translates to 15B addressable market in US The same size is EU4+UK+Japan XENE will not have competion at least for 4y, before $RAPP emerged

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Adith Arun
Adith Arun@aditharun_·
$crnx $abvx sales comparisons are like comparing apples to oranges imo UC patients are easier to find, doesn't really require a specialist GI to be comfortable (generalist GIs are capable and a few IM people too). They are more "in the system" and there are more of them. There is also more competition for therapies. There is more room to grow for obe (and more room for obe to be outcompeted) relative to crnx drugs Acromegaly, CAH, Cushing are more specialized, less "aware" by generalists. Of course, with that comes pricing power. These disease indications and TAMs are not all that similar despite the similar revenue projections.
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC

$ABVX Piper ups the 2035 UC revenue from 3.7 to 4.2B $CRNX was just aquired for 10B with estimated peak rev 4.2B (4.5B $VRTX projection) ABVX current MC is 12.2B Either CRNX get aquired 20% below the fair price or ABVX is by 20% overpriced

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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@Andre_AGTC @aditharun_ Interesting data in the context of $XENE. Their peak likely $2B. Would need MDD to hit to justify a takeout at their EV
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Andre-ACGT
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC·
@aditharun_ Agree, all cases are different. But the financial logic is the same Here is the list of some BO and projected peak rev to BO price multiples $CRNX 10B/4.2B ->2.4 $KRTX 14B/6B -> 2.3 $RXDX 11B/4.8B -> 2.3 $MRTX 5.8B/2.3B -> 2.5 $BPMC 9.5B/4B -> 2.4 $IMGN 10B/4.5B ->2.2
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@plainyogurt21 Agree that the R/R probably isnt here at these levels. Was a lot better when $ABCL was bombed out and trading at near cash….
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Adu Subramanian
Adu Subramanian@plainyogurt21·
@riskadjoptimist I think the trial and market is fighting a bit of an uphill battle. Placebo in trial an see inflation too. At 2+B, doesn't seem like fat pitch for Ph2.
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Adu Subramanian
Adu Subramanian@plainyogurt21·
If (when) $ABCL Q3 fails, what is downside?
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Andre-ACGT
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC·
@riskadjoptimist I think $HELP is currently the best bet in the field They had in ph2 better MARDS reduction compared to $DFTX Not directly comparably trails but good indication for success Dec 5 calls look good low risk option
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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@Andre_AGTC Agreed. Neither am I. Just thought interesting as somewhat related to the above.
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Andre-ACGT
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC·
@riskadjoptimist $XENE will dominate the seizure marker, so it make sense to aquire them just for that. MDD is crowded $BHVN doesn't have money, just enough until the FOS data. If these data disappoint, like not as good as XENE, BHVN is finished
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Andre-ACGT
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC·
Something is going to happen in the CNS market. No M&A activity in 2 years. Last big deals $ITCI and $KRTX $PRAX 311, 8.6B MC $XENE 56, 5.4B MC $RAPP 40 ATH, 1.9B MC $CMPS 13.3, 1.8B MC IMO $XENE is on the way to be BOd $PRAX will do $RVMD type of move to 40B MC
Andre-ACGT@Andre_AGTC

$PRAX MC 8B $NBIX MC 16B PRAX: Essential Tremor (ET) estimated 1.1M to 10M diagnosed cases in US NBIX: Tardive Dyskinesia (TD) estimated 200K to 600K diagnosed cases The approval is not 100% guaranteed but the PRAX market is much bigger than NBIX market

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Cervello Capital
Cervello Capital@riskadjoptimist·
@CloisterRes I love this……ROBD. Need to build into my models. Pain tolerance is half of biotech investing. Is it worth it? Investing in stuff like $ABVX always reminds me of the “box”
GIF
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Canned Salmon Connoisseur
Canned Salmon Connoisseur@CloisterRes·
To be completely honest, I do like the r/r, but the ROBD (return on brain damage) is becoming uncomfortable. There are easier ways to make money than dealing with the psychological stress of getting bagged on this thing multiple times in one month! $abvx
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Keşfet

@Biomaven @zipjet @tarrikzaid @Andre_AGTC @JofallT7 @veg_super @DueDoctor @masonat7