RoundTrip Capital

Lithium has been trading in a range for most of this year. Is this finally a breakout on the GFEX? It's a seasonally strong time of the year for lithium demand so it could very well be the next leg up in this cycle.

@super_cycle EMN, EMM, E25, FRB are on my watchlist

@roundtripCapMan Which Manganese stocks do you prefer?

LMFP #lithium #manganese #iron #phosphate

@super_cycle I use 2500 spod price as longer term average when looking at projects

@roundtripCapMan What's your estimate SC6 peak price for this cycle? In my calculations, I use 3000/t. That's only a20% up from current price.

#Lithium The previous cycle started in early 2020 and peaked in late 2022, and found its bottom in mid-2025. IMO, we are now in the first quarter of the new cycle. And with much more demand from EVs and #BESS than 5 years ago. #early

Just noticed the top-up of $AEE chair at 11.5c

@Galaxie001 #uranium cycle is not over, but it could pull back and consolidate for a while, it 10xed in less than a year after all..

@roundtripCapMan Today's candle looks ready for a round trip.

$CXU $CXU.AX 10x concluded in less than a year 0.007 -----> 0.07

@Alexsei88 "it is a defensive alliance", Libya and Serbia beg to differ

NATO ei ole hyökkäysliitto, se on puolustusliitto. Luulisi Yhdysvaltojen presidentin ymmärtävän tämän, jos olisi edes hiukan järkeä päässä. Lisäksi NATO-maahan ei ole hyökättyä, USA hyökkäsi Iraniin Israelin kanssa. Trump saa vetää USAn pois NATO:sta ja kokea talousromahduksen.

Have #lithium exposure in your portfolio? “The ESS sector has entered a period of explosive growth, and this trend is expected to continue into 2026 ... AI computing and data centres, new power consumption scenarios, are driving a constant increase in demand.”

Urenco ramping up enrichment capacity.

Kazatomprom has just quietly admitted that their post-peak steady state production potential is expected to be around 10Mlbs U3O8/year lower than previously assumed. The world suddenly needs one more tier 1 scale mine to ramp up in mid 2030s. This is the biggest news in uranium so far this year.

Sigma Lithium Signs with a Major Brazilian Bank a US$100 Million Collateralized Bank Guarantee Press Release: ir.sigmalithiumcorp.com/news-releases/

$LGO Largo Good signs so far

GLN completes Phase 1 at HMW, a major step toward production. Commissioning now underway, ~10,000t LCE brine in place and first lithium chloride targeted in 2026. A key milestone in GLN's transition to lithium production. Read more: go.relait.co/3yaxv4nm

$CXU.AX Cauldron energy impressive catch-up Can not wait for the #energy/#commodity run once the war dust settles.

Back from the Fastmarkets Battery Raw Materials Conference in Shanghai — the mood in the lithium market is unrecognizable from October. Optimism is real, and here's what's driving it: Consensus is building around a coming shortage. BESS demand is accelerating and some predict it will overtake EV as the growth driver, helped by improving cycle life economics. EV growth is slowing domestically, but Chinese exports are expected to compensate. Africa supply expansion remains a concern. Li sulfate is becoming the go-to intermediate. Sodium-ion barely came up — though above $35/kg it could start taking share. With ~90% of global lithium demand sitting in China, this is a must-attend event for any producer or future producer. If you're not in the room, you're missing the conversation that matters. A market in transition. #Lithium #EnergyStorage #BatterySupplyChain #Fastmarkets

#vanadium The increadible thing is: Chinese industrial policies and its political economy most often actually DO what is being planned (in contrast to "lipservice" economies). Those who have been following the #VRFB market have been expecting this, but seeing it pinned down like this in an industrial policy document**, is another reassurance that the #vanadium market is being completely transformed from a steel story to battery tech. Gemini added after digging deeper: The 15th Five-Year Plan explicitly promotes VRFBs as a "core technology route.", which implies that "the transition from "demonstration" to "large-scale promotion" is backed by specific government mechanisms: Four national departments are coordinating to lower costs, aiming to make vanadium the standard for the national energy system. Let that sink in. A standard in the Chinese economy. Just think of the simple scale #vanadium demand is gonna grow. The documemnt uses the word "exponentially". The shy vanadium bull we have see in the last 6 months could be the warming-up for this. According to some, the real demand for vanadium will show up really strong in H2. The other good news is: All vanadium mining stocks on sale. $LGO $FAR.L $VR8 $AVL.ax $RVT.ax (mostly explorcos and developers, except for Largo). Besides this miner basket, I am also long Invinity Energy Systems $IES.L as a #VRFB developer and "installer" Good luck, my #vanadium bulls! --------------------- **PS: This is a reliable translation and summary of "Impact of the 15th Five-Year Plan on Strategic Metals" (十五五规划对战略性金属行业的影响). The publisher, Mysteel is the primary price and policy benchmark used by major international investment firms (like Goldman Sachs and CRU Group) when analyzing Chinese industrial commodities. Good commentary from a mining perspective here: geopoliticalmining.com/chinas-15th-fi… Chinese original here: xinhuanet.com/politics/20260…

Have had a number of people tell me lithium is dead and the boom is over. I disagree, and here are my thoughts on why whilst I sip my morning coffee: Firstly, understand just how much lithium goes into an EV battery: 7/8 tonnes of SC6 (spodumene ore containing 6% li2O) = 1 tonne of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent). 5/6 tonnes of LCE = 1 tonne of lithium metal. It’s frustrating to see just how many analysts confuse LCE and Lithium metal: There are roughly 9/10kgs of lithium metal in an EV battery. That’s not LCE, that’s lithium metal. So 1 tonne of SC6 ends up being a measly 25kgs of Lithium!! Enough for 2-3 EVs. I won’t crunch the numbers here, but that gives you an idea of the scale at play and the amount of mining and refining needed. How many mines are coming online within the next 5 years? I think I could count them on one hand. How many mines which were predicted to come online within the next 5 years are not coming online? I think I need a couple of hands to count that one. The lithium mining business is going to be very profitable for a long time IMO. If you’re going to be producing within the next 5 years, you’re going to be printing cash. $LTR $PLS $MIN $IGO $WES Thanks for reading and look at the crema on that coffee!

Ever wondered why some lithium hard rock companies are producing SC6 and others a product containing less lithium (SC5.5, etc.)? Here's why whilst I sip my morning coffee (the crema is amazing today). $PLS - SC5.5 $AKE - SC5.3 $MIN - SC6.0 First, understand that there are specifications set by converters that spodumene hard rock producers need to meet depending on how their product is graded. There are two main grades of spodumene concentrate: 1.) Chemical 2.) Technical A lot of people don't realise this but technical grade concentrate is more strict than chemical. Funnily enough, technical grade is used in glass and ceramics, and chemical is used for battery applications. I believe the current specifications (what is preferred by converters) for each grade are as follows: Chemical - (<0.8% Fe2O3, SC5.0-SC6.0) Technical - (0.15% to 0.5% Fe2O3, >SC6.5) Fe2O3 is iron oxide Li2O is lithium oxide It really is a balancing act between the recovery rates and meeting the above specifications. You could produce SC6 but if your waste content (iron, mica, etc.) is high, your recoveries are going to fall through the floor. Example: Say you've got a deposit that's li2O is 1.0%, 1.2% Fe2O3, a recovery rate of 75%. If you want to get SC6 and meet the specifications, you're going to need 8 tonnes of ore and you're going to have to deal with 9.6% Fe2O3!! An expensive process. Compare that with a company that has 1.5% li2O, 0.6% Fe2O3 and a recovery rate of 75%. They need 5.3 tonnes of ore to achieve SC6 and only have to deal with 3.2% Fe2O3... So companies will produce a product that gives them the most volume whilst still meeting the specifications. I should add that converters can still accept ore outside of these specs, but the high iron content will produce "clinkers" when they roast the spod at 1080degrees (a step in converting to hydroxide) which are difficult and costly to remove. Summary: Waste content (iron, mica, etc.) is extremely important for lithium miners! Make sure you study the met work before investing. No two deposits are equal. Thanks for reading!

Rick Rule: This energy crisis will be widely bullish for uranium in the long run The Japanese nuclear fleet, the 2nd largest in the world, was constructed as a result of the painful experience of the Arab oil embargo in 1973. Currently, they run 15 of their 41 reactors, expect the reactivation schedule to increase. The current energy crisis will have a similar effect, as uranium’s extremely high energy density allows countries to store years’ worth of energy supply with relative ease - making it the best strategic energy source - Japan runs 15 of their 41 reactors – expect increased reactivations - Uranium is already in deficit - Available supplies at cheap prices are quickly running out - The pace of new plant construction will be red hot Uranium is the winner of the current energy crisis