Roy Moobola

Data analysis shows negative correlation between economic growth and fiscal deficit - causal link in both directions. 2024 & 2025 growth below trend due to energy constraints. Supplementary budget increases 2026 deficit to 6.5%. Reversion to trend performance gives growth of 4.2%

@siphophiri @benbibozm @TraficRapBender You are celebrating an underdeveloped financial system that constrains growth. The need to pay cash for housing and cars can lead to all manner of corruption. People would be less prone to dodgy deals if they could just simply borrow from the bank and pay off loans slowly.

@benbibozm @TraficRapBender Most people in so called developed countries have 20-30 year mortgages and car loans. 8n Zambia 90% of all housing is debt free or 100% equity. Even if our houses are relatively modest and our cars are second hand from Japan... it's something we should be proud of! 🇿🇲 💪🏾

So the Zambian success story is still building a house and buying a car? Damn

@telvin_mwanza @mupelaIV This highlights the weakness of the CDF model of development which is linked to a political representation area and not an administrative delivery function. Does CDF then influence delimitation? The tail wagging the dog!

@roymoobola @mupelaIV That is understood however political voice doesn't bring about development at constituency level. That can be taken into a scientific test and the results can prove it. While improved local government through increased wards and municipalities does bring about effective change.

Zambia’s constituency delimitation should be based on data. A clear formula weighted by constituency population, area and remoteness produces the following recommendations:

@telvin_mwanza @mupelaIV Delimitation is fundamentally about equal political voice, but in developing contexts it must account for geography and service delivery realities to avoid entrenching development inequalities. Therefore the approach I have used accounts for population, land area and remoteness.

@roymoobola @mupelaIV You can't improve service delivery in Lusaka by having more constituencies. Rather by having more wards which leads to enhanced local governmen, and municipalities while turning the city into a metropole. 2/2

@ZambiaElections The over/under representation of each province using %constituencies minus %population is as follows: Central: -1.3% Copperbelt: -1.3% Eastern: +0.3% Luapula: +0.7% Lusaka: -7.7% Muchinga: +1.5% Northern: +1.1% North Western: +1.9% Southern: +0.7% Western: 4.5%

2026 Delimitation of Constituencies - Province Summary

@Space2013M This is all my work.

@roymoobola This is insightful. Boss, who compiled this data?

Solar + batteries are no longer “alternative” energy. They can deliver ~90% of electricity cheaply for most of the world at $0.09/kWh. For countries like Zambia, the constraint isn’t physics. It’s only about desire and execution. nworbmot.org/blog/solar-bat…

@Kapilikisha @JWSakalajr Democracy must be built not just copied. Systems and institutions that govern democracy should be suited to the conditions prevailing in the country. The voters cannot pull themselves up by their bootstraps to get rid of their own ignorance.

@roymoobola @JWSakalajr The voter bears the responsibility of being informed sufficiently before casting their vote. The democratic process cannot start to vet the level of ignorance of the voters. Slippery slope.

We need to check our constitution, why is it everyone wants to be a politician in Zambia.? What's in politics that's inticing people to all of a sudden want to contest in various elective positions.?There is a hidden truth that's not revealed yet. Someone do a study on this one.

@touristeagle1 The problem lies with our young demographics which skews voting towards immediate consumption over long-term investment, politically emotive issues rather than institutional development. I would increase voting age to 21.

@touristeagle1 The counterpoint to your argument is that Zambia had uninterrupted leadership for 27 years without the comparative advantage seen in Singapore, South Korea etc. When we needed to change leadership we couldn't.

Having elections every 4 or 5 years is suitable for already developed countries. For a developing country like Zambia, this frequent election cycle is one of the biggest obstacles to real progress.

@Kapilikisha @JWSakalajr No barriers should exist if information is available perfectly to all, and people are sufficiently educated to understand the consequences. Even now there are barriers of age, citizenship, finances etc. Some places have had other barriers. Democracy needs both openness and order.

@roymoobola @JWSakalajr There should be no barriers. Many can aspire, its up to the people to weed out the undesirables.

@IanECox The power envelope for March 2027 (strong El Niño) shows a system on a knife-edge. Downside supply sits under 2,000 MW. Any project delays or plant outages, and we slip straight back into deficit territory. On-time project execution will determine whether the lights stay on.

Facts show Zambia’s power is in stronger shape for 2026. 🇿🇲⚡️ Kariba: As of 7 April, lake level 479.61m with 28.98% usable storage (3x higher than April 2025). ZRA allocated 30 billion cubic metres for generation this year. Dry season inflows drop soon, but we start from a solid base. Solar ramping fast: Hundreds of MW already online (Chisamba Phase I, Mansa etc.) boosting daytime supply. By election day expect another 200+ MW: Chipata West 100 MW targeted July, Chisamba Phase II 100 MW rolling out. Game-changer: Maamba Energy expansion: existing 300 MW + new 300 MW coal + 100 MW solar = 700 MW total. Construction advanced, targeted June/July 2026. That firm 24/7 baseload covers hydro gaps and nights. ZESCO & Energy Ministry say 2026 brings noticeable stabilisation from better hydro coordination + solar + thermal additions like Maamba. Not zero loadshedding, but much lighter & more predictable than 2023-24. Facts over fear. The improvement has legs beyond August. What’s your take, Zambia? Stocking up on solar anyway? #ZambiaPower #LoadsheddingUpdate

@JWSakalajr Most likely in March 2027 when the true extent of the drought and the lack of preparedness becomes evident.

After 13th August 2026 expect heavy loadsheddding to resume.

Solar continues to skyrocket in Africa through February 2026! Solar is doing more to bring electricity to Africa than any other technology. Solar may be doing more to increase electricity supply in Africa than all other technologies combined. ember-energy.org/latest-insight…

Emerging economies are leapfrogging to decentralised, modular solar and batteries – much like they skipped fixed-line networks for mobile. This shift solves the last-mile challenge, bringing energy access to those the fossil system left behind. @TheCVF ember-energy.org/latest-insight…

@ZambiaMGEE please heed these warnings and make appropriate plans for 2027. Don't say you weren't warned!

Ethiopia is accelerating its electric mobility drive, with plans to establish 60 EV factories by 2030 to strengthen true energy independence. Already, 17 assembly plants are operational, and the country is targeting 500,000 electric vehicles by 2032.