reha ruhavioğlu.

#Iran War Update No. 19 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹The war has entered a clear energy infrastructure phase following the strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field. The attack has caused disruption in Iran’s gas production and marked a shift toward targeting the country’s economic backbone rather than purely military assets. 🔹Iran responded by expanding retaliation across the Persian Gulf. Strikes on energy and industrial infrastructure, including major facilities such as Ras Laffan in Qatar, indicate a deliberate strategy to regionalize the energy confrontation and globalize its impacts by imposing extra pressure on the energy market. 🔹This shift is also reflected in Iranian strategic thinking. Rather than “proportional” responses, Tehran increasingly appears to be operating under a new strategy of escalation above the threshold set by its adversaries, aiming to correct what it sees as past miscalculations caused by restraint. 🔹At the same time, the risk of a more direct U.S. intervention is rising. Recent discussions in Washington reportedly include scenarios involving special operations forces targeting Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles or seizing strategic locations such as Kharg Island, although large-scale ground operations remain uncertain. 🔹Iran has responded by signaling preparedness for such scenarios. IRGC’s special/commando force deployments in Iran’s southern regions and its public messaging emphasize readiness for ground confrontation, while some Iranian analysts even argue that a limited U.S. ground presence could be turned into a strategic advantage by exposing American forces to direct attack. 🔹Israeli operations continue to focus on decapitation strikes. The latest case was intelligence minister Esmail Khatib whose death in Israeli strikes was confirmed by the Iranian government. 🔹At the same time, Israeli strikes are expanding geographically. Attacks on northern provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran suggest a widening target set. 🔹Iran’s missile campaign against Israel continues in a sustained attritional pattern. Smaller but frequent salvos, including the use of cluster munitions, appear aimed at maintaining psychological pressure and gradually degrading Israeli air defenses. 🔹Hezbollah’s involvement also persists at a steady pace, with continued rocket and missile fire into northern Israel. Some reports indicate that longer-range missiles have now been used to strike areas near Gaza, potentially aimed at enabling a reactivation of armed activity there and suggesting a higher degree of coordination with Iranian operations. 🔹In Iraq, the conflict is deepening further. U.S. strikes on PMF units and retaliatory militia attacks are continuing, while disruptions to Iranian gas exports following the South Pars strike are directly affecting Iraq’s electricity supply. 🔹Regional reactions are becoming more pronounced but remain divided. Gulf states have condemned Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure, with Saudi Arabia warning of stronger responses, while Oman continues to emphasize de-escalation. 🔹At the same time, Qatar’s decision to expel Iranian military attachés highlights growing concern even among states that have maintained relatively stable ties with Tehran. 🔹Global economic effects are intensifying. Oil prices surged above $110 per barrel following the South Pars attack and subsequent Iranian strikes, reflecting a growing geopolitical risk premium tied to energy infrastructure. 🔹Iran continues to sustain oil exports despite the conflict. High prices and continued sales, primarily to China, are generating significant revenue, reinforcing Tehran’s ability to maintain its war effort. 🔹Inside Iran, the internal security dimension remains a central concern. Authorities have intensified crackdowns, including arrests and even executions for alleged espionage, while maintaining strong public mobilization of their supporters to deter unrest. 🔹At the same time, Iranian officials are increasingly framing the war as part of a broader transformation of the regional order. Statements from both the IRGC and the army (Artesh) suggest a shared view that U.S. influence in the region is declining. 🔹Another emerging issue is Iran’s nuclear program. While there is no confirmed policy shift, recent remarks by Iranian officials highlight uncertainty around the future of the longstanding prohibition on nuclear weapons by Ali Khamenei. Iranian foreign minister says that the new Supreme Leader has not yet clarified its position on this issue. 🔹Overall, the conflict is entering a phase where infrastructure warfare, leadership targeting, and potential ground operation scenarios are beginning to intersect, making escalation less predictable and harder to contain.

Kürt Çalışmaları Merkezi (@KurdishStudiesC) organizasyonu, Diyarbakır Ticaret Odası ev sahipliğinde (@DiyarTSO) düzenlenen yuvarlak masa toplantısına katıldık. Toplantıda Türkiye ve bölge ekonomisi, Kürt Meselesi ve Türkiye’de devam eden süreçler üzerine kapsamlı değerlendirmeler gerçekleştirdik. Katılımları ile toplantımızı zenginleştiren kıymetli misafirlere, moderasyon için sivil toplum alanında yılların deneyimine sahip Reha Ruhavioğlu’na (@ruhavi), organizasyon ve emekleri için Kürt Çalışmaları Merkezi çalışanlarına teşekkür ediyorum.

Ankara merkezli stratejik danışmanlık ve araştırma şirketi #BabilResearch olarak bölgesel politika, güvenlik ve sosyo-ekonomik dinamikler üzerine veri temelli analiz ve danışmanlık hizmetleri sunmak üzere faaliyete başladık. Detaylı bilgi için: babilresearch.com

3 puan bizim!🌟 #MücadeleninTakımı #TîmaTêkoşînê #TaximêXoverdayîşî

#VİDEO - Erbil’de saldırı sonrası şehir merkezinden dumanlar yükseldi