Ryan Finlay

SCOOP!!! Trump administration considering deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East as the military prepares options for the possible next phase of the Iran war. One option for securing the Strait of Hormuz includes deploying troops to Iranian shores. w/@idreesali114

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

Not gonna sugar coat this and do not care if it costs me my new Pentagon press credentials and access to this administration. The left smeared my name in a major WAPO hit piece and the right can do the same. I’m a captain, I can live alone in the ocean. 👉 The Strait of Homuz is an epic failure. Today’s news, no escorts until late month, has ramifications few understand. US Merchant Marine ships have been attacked. This is not panickan. This is not a damnation of Trump. This is hard truth 👇 A GLOBALIST MOLE INSIDE THE ADMINISTRATION CAUSED THIS We entered this admin with a set of maritime appointments & prospective appointments not seen since FDR… possibly Teddy. DEEP knowledge of shipping & DEEP maritime support. So how did we get to the most important energy and food (1/3rd of all fertilizer) chokepoint in the world getting cut off? Well our Trump 1.0 appointees were globalist heavy hitters. Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross managed ships for the Rothchilds. Our DOT secretary Elaine Chao, is married to Mitch McConnell & heiress to a shipping fortune tied to China. We already know how tied to the globalist Mark Milley was and Pete Buttigieg was McKinsey. Trump knew this & formulated a team of the best maritime advisors ever seen. A Dream Team & I know because most are friends of mine. ALL BUT FOUR HAVE BEEN SNIPED Who remains? Trump himself is a strong supporter. Hegseth has focused more on naval and shipping that any DoD secretary this century. Elbridge Colby understands the critical importance of the maritime domain Russ Vought has pushed the Maritime Action But what do these four have in common? They are all at THE center of the bullseye from MSM and globalist attacks. And all are extremely busy with other things. ALL OTHER MEMBERS OF THE MARITIME DREAM TEAM HAVE BEEN SNIPED OR SIDELINED JD VANCE - has worked tirelessly behind the scenes as for shipping deals including icebreakers. Strangely silent lately. Charlie Kirk - Assasinated Mike Waltz - author of the SHIPs for America Act… pushed out of NSC Dan Caldwell - top OSD official escorted out of the pentagon Alex Wong - Under at NSC and now shipbuilding executive axed Bruce Kimbrell- organizer of the SHIPs act axed from NSC Ian Bennitt - NSC maritime head, gone along with his staff Jerry Hendrix - NSC shipbuilding, pushed to OMB Brent Sadler - the #1 maritime think tank strategist in the world, sniped nomination as Maritime Administrator Morgan Ortagus - right hand to Witkoff, killed by a smear campaign Kristi Noem - absolutely saved the US Coast Guard and delivered the winning blow to the UN Maritime arm in London Sean Plankey - USCG is the lead on ship protection and regulations. He was Noem’s right hand man for reforms. Gone alongside Noem. Lou Sola - Federal Maritime Commission Chairman who was investigating globalist control of trade Jon Harrison - the Navy Chief of Staff who focused on sealift and Merchant Marine, fired. Sal Mercogliano - nomination killed to be the US Merchant Marine’s top Admiral Ross Kennedy - moved out of Commerce John Mills - buried in a minor office at state And yes me. And that’s just the big names. So many others with deep maritime expertise have been hit by this organized political action campaign. The only very senior person who hasn’t was a senior executive at Maersk. You can call me a crazy conspiracy theorist, you can explain rational reasoning for each snipe, but collectively this is damning Who is behind this systematic sniping? Wish I knew. Rumors range from the Deputy National Security Adviser who took effective control of the NSC from Waltz… to shadow figures in London. The only people I am 💯 certain are not behind this are Hegseth and Trump himself because everyone I talk to reiterate their continued support. This is why the Strait of Hormuz has become a disaster… Trump set up a Dream Team to target globalist control of shipping and that expertise has been gutted.

This is now the largest oil supply shock in history in mb/d terms #MacroEdge