Ryan O'Farrell

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Ryan O'Farrell

Ryan O'Farrell

@ryanmofarrell

Non-state actors and conflicts / mostly East Africa / Ohioan / Defections Operations Coordinator at the Bridgeway Foundation / @SAISHopkins alum

Katılım Mart 2014
2K Takip Edilen14.4K Takipçiler
Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
@caleb_weiss7 Extremely telling that they're still citing "command and control" from the 2021 UN report while ignoring all the mounting evidence that has been included in subsequent reports. Cherry-picking old stuff to confirm their priors, while ignoring everything else.
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Caleb Weiss
Caleb Weiss@caleb_weiss7·
@ryanmofarrell Zero self awareness in how she doesn’t apologize or issue a correction to her Nation article on the ADF-IS relationship (referenced throughout this interview)…considering she has been proven dead wrong about pretty much everything.
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Caleb Weiss
Caleb Weiss@caleb_weiss7·
Really hope internal IS docs and tech were also captured in the raid, knowing more about the dynamics of IS ops and leadership in Africa is paramount
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
ADF also prioritize abducting children because they are easier to indoctrinate. Which often means children are forced to kill civilians (including other children) while girls as young as 13 are forced into sexual slavery. Speaking to victims and defectors is incredibly grim.
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Gregory Waters
Gregory Waters@GregoryPWaters·
I've added a new link on my website that takes you to an interactive map showing all of my articles profiling different Syrian communities. It includes pieces covering war-time history, post-war experiences, and interviews with locals. I hope this can be a useful resource for those interested in more local Syrian accounts. google.com/maps/d/u/0/vie…
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
-CS/VP14 MRAPs -VN22 APCs -VN22B 105mm assault guns -VN2C APCs Probably, uh, not good if *literal Al-Qaeda* gets ahold of any significant stockpiles of these as Bamako's control slips.
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
Amid these withdrawals, probably worth noting that Mali made a *major* purchase of Chinese weapons systems last year. Hundreds of millions of dollars worth. -SR-5 MRLS -SH-1 self-propelled howitzers -CS/SM5 120mm self-propelled mortars -Yitian-L anti-air missile systems
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Brant@BrantPhilip_

Breaking: The city of Ber becomes the fourth location in northern Mali to be handed over peacefully from the Russian Africa Corps and Malian army to the FLA/JNIM coalition, and the first city in the Tombouctou region to fall to the rebels.

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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
Optimistically, a paramilitary might fit that role and help regularize responsibility for mine security in conflict-prone areas. But - as ever - a million ways this could go wrong, and the motivations and interests of the involved parties are…suspect.
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
On one level, a significant chunk of FARDC is already effectively employed as security by foreign mining companies in conflict-heavy parts of the east. Existing mining police aren’t really equipped for protecting mines under those conditions.
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
A dedicated mining police isn’t all that unusual in developing countries with budget-critical extractive sectors, but some questions: -Does it really answer to the Interior Ministry, or its foreign funders? -What happens to the already-existing Police des Mines (PNC)?
acp.cd@acprdcongo

#RDC : dans le cadre de ses partenariats stratégiques avec les États-Unis d'Amérique (USA) et les Émirats arabes Unis (EAU), la République démocratique du Congo a franchi un pas déterminant avec le financement de 100 millions de dollars américains consacré à la création de la Garde minière dans 22 provinces du pays, selon un communiqué de l' Inspection générale des mines (IGM) lundi. Il est prévu que ce corps compte 20.000 membres bien formés, afin d'encadrer le secteur minier et surtout assurer la traçabilité dans ce secteur crucial pour les partenariats avec les USA et les EAU. "La volonté du Président de la République, que nous mettons en œuvre, est d’assainir l’ensemble du secteur minier de la RDC, en éliminant les pratiques contraires à la bonne gouvernance à la transparence et à la traçabilité des minerais", a déclaré l’Inspecteur général des mines, Rafael Kabengele. La Garde Minière aura pour principales missions : "la sécurisation des sites miniers sur l’ensemble du territoire national; le convoyage sécurisé des minerais, depuis les zones d’extraction jusqu’aux unités de traitement et aux postes frontaliers", a précisé le communiqué. Le 4 décembre, la RDC et les USA ont signé un accord de partenariat sur les minerais critiques et la sécurité. Un accord de partenariat similaire a été aussi conclu par Kinshasa et Doha sur l'or.

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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
Looks like FARDC is using one of its two relatively new L-39 jets (first reported by the latest UN GoE report) to conduct airstrikes on the Minembwe airstrip. Probably meant to prevent planes from landing for resupply/CASEVAC. @GeoConfirmed
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Bertrand Bisimwa@bbisimwa

Le régime de Kinshasa a choisi le moment de la reprise des négociations politiques pour pilonner, à l’aide de Sukhoi, plusieurs villages à Minembwe causant mort et désolation parmi les civils ainsi que la destruction des plusieurs habitations civiles, églises, écoles, hôpitaux,..

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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
Smaller, cheaper quadcopters would probably be useful for tactical operations at the platoon/company/battalion level, but ADF is simply a different threat than the ~conventional campaign against static M23 positions and supply lines in which larger UCAVs have proven effective.
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
1) MONUSCO has had drones for counter-ADF operations for over a decade, and now so do UPDF 2) Even very expensive MALE drones with advanced visual and thermal optics can’t penetrate triple canopy forests, and ADF are *very* disciplined about maintaining cover over their camps
Dave Jenkins@MzeeDaveJenkins

Hmm? I’m old enough to remember the ADF terrorism for over 25 years. Good question, “Why has no drone ever been deployed to track down the ADF?”

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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
Large numbers of troops simply can’t be everywhere that ADF could conceivably attack, especially now. But more areas *are* under potential threat, and civil society, PNC, ANR, FARDC, etc, should be aware so that *if* ADF arrive, they understand the threat and can request support.
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
Provinces like Tshopo and Haut-Uele have been spared the consistent insecurity seen in NK or Ituri, and FARDC presence is lower accordingly. ADF moves to these areas for this very reason, and often, communities simply aren’t aware of the possibility that they could be targets.
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
Also: new technologies like GPS and Starlink have accelerated the ADF’s ability to relocate over longer distances, often moving 10-20km per day. Far more of the east is now at risk of their incursions, and commanders, civil society and the government should prepare accordingly.
Vivuya S. Lukogho@TheMwamiDRC

As the ADF threat withdrew from the Semliki Valley (northeastern North Kivu & southeastern Ituri), warnings were issued through all channels that it would become uncontrollable if it moved closer to #Mambasa & #Epulu forest and the entire western part of Ituri & eastern #Tshopo. It wasn't an ideology, it wasn't scaremongering, nor was it a matter of “undermining the Head of State's efforts,” as we were accused of doing. Now, the damage is done. Mambasa territory is the more autonomous part of Ituri. If, right here between the small towns of Mambasa and Niania, Paul Sadala, a.k.a. Morgan gave us a hard time; imagine what it must be like dealing with tropical Islamists: mobile, scattered in small groups, and waging an ideological guerrilla war. Do you think the people of Mambasa will just sit back and take it? Mambasa is not eastern Beni; I'm so sorry. Not me. My biggest fear is that conspiracy theories will take hold, and that the FARDC and the local military administration will be rejected. We don’t want that to happen, but that’s the sentiment that seems to be emerging. People are suspected of being rejected and sacrificed. And what are you/we going to do? Label them all as ADF, just like Lt. Jules Ngongo did with the young people in Butembo, Lubero, and Beni? The corrupted celebrations in #Kinshasa are what they might be, but the threat is getting closer and closer to #Kisangani. And it will have gotten out of control.

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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
“Governments forced to reckon with the possibility that they might need to nationalize the apocalyptic technologies designed by amoral megacorps lest civilization collapses into dystopia? My God who could have conceived of this?”
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Ryan O'Farrell
Ryan O'Farrell@ryanmofarrell·
It’s very funny to me that campy dystopian sci-fi video games have had plot lines about this stuff for the last 30 years, and now they’re genuine national security questions that no one has good answers for because no one thought fiction could be predictive.
Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼@Noahpinion

At some point, superintelligent AI will be able to defeat the U.S. Military -- or any military -- just by hacking all its weapons. At that point, either we de facto nationalize AI, or a corporation is our new government by default.

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