Tushar Saini

#DEEDEV - DEE Development Engineers Ltd DEE Development is India’s largest manufacturer of specialized process piping solutions by installed capacity. The core narrative here is a financial turnaround fueled by India's accelerating capex cycle, coupled with an aggressive backward integration strategy that is structurally expanding margins. The Q3 FY26 numbers validate a massive inflection point: Consolidated revenue surged 77% YoY to ₹286.7 Cr, and PAT flipped from a ₹13.3 Cr loss last year to a robust ₹18.55 Cr profit. Operating EBITDA margins expanded significantly to 16.6% in Q3 FY26, up from a suppressed 3.5% in the same quarter last year. -> If execution sustains and margins stabilize at these expanded levels, DEEDEV is poised to transition from a pure turnaround story into a structurally higher-margin, compounding engineering play. Growth Catalysts & Triggers 1. Backward Integration (The Margin Multiplier): The biggest structural catalyst occurred just days ago. On March 19, 2026, DEEDEV commenced commercial production at its new ₹89 Cr, 7,000 MTPA Seamless Pipe plant in Anjar, Gujarat. Previously, the company had to import these high-wall-thickness alloy pipes to use as raw materials. Manufacturing them in-house is expected to improve EBITDA margins by reducing imported seamless pipe costs and freight dependency. The market validation was immediate: they secured a ₹58 Cr seamless pipe order from a power sector JV before the plant was even fully commissioned. 2. Explosive Order Book Momentum: The company's order book is expanding aggressively, jumping from ₹1,319 Cr at the start of February to ₹1,913 Cr by February 28, 2026. This was driven by a massive ₹754 Cr inflow in February alone, highlighted by a $40+ million export order for Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) piping from a US-based OEM and strong domestic traction from PSU giants like BHEL. Execution is scaling concurrently; the Anjar facility’s base process piping capacity was recently doubled to 30,000 MTPA to handle this influx, with a large portion of this ₹1,913 Cr order book expected to execute over the next 2–3 years (FY26–FY28). 3. Long-Duration Optionality (Hydrogen & Pilot Plants): While thermal power and oil & gas pay the bills today, DEEDEV is building early optionality in emerging hydrogen infrastructure. They have strategically entered the hydrogen sector via an MoU with an International Clean-Tech partner to build modular hydrogen production systems in India and Thailand. Additionally, they have opened a new, high-margin vertical: designing and fabricating small-scale "pilot plants" for chemical and nuclear companies to test R&D processes before full-scale commercialization. Key Risks: Biomass power segment litigation continues to drag consolidated margins. Long-gestation international HRSG orders expose the company to raw material price volatility and execution risks. The business remains working-capital intensive, and growth is highly dependent on sustained capex cycles in the Oil & Gas and Power sectors.

today.

@ryzin05 This is our first meeage to buy the dip.

Message from our Research Desk:

@REDBOXINDIA Biggest beneficiary is CPPLUS. It is market leader in India's CCTV and video surveillance industry.

India to ban Chinese CCTV brands unless certified from April 2026 New rules boost digital security, local surveillance tech Local brands expected to gain market share as prices may rise

#ABB - holding strong while the broader market bleeds - good one to track and add on dips!

#AARTIIND - Aarti Industries Ltd The benzene chemistry platform in the middle of a multi-year earnings recovery. Holds global top-4 positions in ~75% of its portfolio, a strong competitive moat in the benzene derivatives chain. Q3 FY26 revenue grew 26% YoY to ₹2,319 Cr with PAT surging 189% YoY to ₹133 Cr, a broad volume recovery. EBITDA margin at 13.8%, still below historical levels of 16%+. Export share hit an all-time high of 65%, the clearest evidence yet that the China+1 sourcing shift(structural tailwind) is converting into real orders. Zone IV capex commissioning begins Q4 FY26 in a phased manner, with multipurpose manufacturing capabilities and the resulting operating leverage flowing through from FY27 onwards. Net debt remains elevated post the heavy capex cycle and deleveraging toward management's sub-2.5x target relies heavily on new capacities ramping on schedule. Recently got an order worth $150M(1100-1250cr) long-term supply deal with a major global agrochemical company. Key risks are execution delays and any escalation of US tariffs on Indian chemical exports.

#GRAVITA - Gravita India India's multi-material recycling platform and category leader in organized lead recycling with 8-10% domestic market share. With 60% of the sector still unorganized, the move toward the formal economy is a massive, long-term growth driver. Highest EBITDA margins in the sector at 11.4%, with 4 major catalysts ahead: 1. EPR Regulations: Mandate for organized recycling across batteries, plastic, aluminium, and tyres kicks in April 1, 2026. Gravita is already an approved EPR credit generator in all four categories where every tonne pushed from the informal to the formal sector is incremental, high-margin revenue that the market has yet to fully price in. 2. New Verticals & Copper Pivot: Non-lead businesses are scaling fast. The Li-ion recycling plant (6,000 MTPA) at Mundra is now operational. Crucially, the March 2026 acquisition of Rashtriya Metal Industries (RMIL had a turnover of ₹910 Cr in FY25) for ₹559 Cr marks a massive entry into copper recycling. Non-lead is targeted at 30% of revenue by FY29 (vs 12% today), driving significant mix-shift margin expansion. 3. Global Scale-up: International expansion is the long-duration play, increased Gravita Europe stake at 95%, Dominican Republic greenfield slated for FY27, and the RMIL deal adding 31,200 MTPA of high-barrier capacity. 4. The Procurement Moat: They've built a global network with 33 owned scrap yards and 1,900+ collection points across 5 continents. Owning the source - proximity to scrap in Africa and Asia - reduces logistics costs, secures supply consistency, and removes the middleman entirely. Competitors relying on spot market procurement get squeezed when scrap prices spike. Gravita doesn't. This vertical integration into raw material sourcing is a physical moat that domestic-only competitors simply can't replicate. Vision 2029 targets 25%+ volume CAGR and 35%+ profitability growth with ROIC above 25%. Key risks in the thesis are lead/copper price volatility impacting per-tonne realizations, Q3 FY26 revenue growth of 2% YoY showing near-term top-line pressure that needs to close toward the 25% volume CAGR target, RMIL integration complexity given simultaneous multi-vertical expansion, and promoter stake declining 17% over three years to 55.8%, three senior exits in March 2026 including an Executive Director and Independent Director, and death of a key promoter-trustee holding 23.5% through family trust(succession clarity awaited).

#HFCL - HFCL Limited HFCL is transitioning toward a product-led, export-driven model, positioning itself as a supplier to global data center and AI infrastructure through high-fibre-count OFC and active networking solutions. As data center deployments scale globally, each facility requires high-fibre-count OFC networks, with HFCL supplying both the passive cable and the active networking equipment. I could find 5 catalysts: 1. OFC (Optical Fiber Cable) exports are the nearest-term catalyst where management is guiding OFC revenues to ₹3,500 Cr in FY27, driven by global hyperscaler AI infrastructure and data center build-outs, supporting sustained optical fiber demand. The critical and under-appreciated competitive edge: HFCL and subsidiary HTL are the only Indian OFC exporters completely exempt (following a six-month European Commission investigation including on-site factory inspections) from EU anti-dumping duties that hit every other Indian player (Sterlite at 11.4%, Vindhya and APAR at 8.7–9.9%) actively redirecting European order flow toward HFCL, OFC capacity expanding from 30.5 to 42.36 million fkm by June 2026. Crucially, while OFC is <0.5% of a Data Center's capex, AI clusters demand 10x more fiber volume. This tiny cost share makes hyperscalers highly price-insensitive, protecting HFCL's margins on massive orders. 2. Vertical Integration: doubled in-house fiber capacity from 14M to 28M fkm (targeting 33.9M by Dec 2026) enables 100% self-sufficiency in glass fiber. This insulates margins from raw material volatility and, combined with the 0% EU duty, supports margin stability (~20% EBITDA target) while enabling competitive bidding for hyperscaler contracts. 3. Data Center Interconnect (Moving Up the Stack): HFCL is expanding into pre-connectorised solutions (PCS) and MPO-based data center interconnect products, targeting higher-value passive infrastructure beyond standard OFC. Management expects PCS to contribute ~₹400–500 Cr incremental revenue over FY26–FY27, with growing adoption in hyperscaler and AI-driven data center deployments. Strategically, this positions HFCL to evolve from a commodity cable supplier toward an integrated optical solutions provider, improving margin profile and customer stickiness. 4. Telecom products (Wi-Fi 6, Wi-Fi 7, 5G CPEs) targeting ₹500 Cr in FY27, with HFCL being the only Indian 5G CPE manufacturer holding 90% domestic market share in unlicensed band radios and is receiving export enquiries across Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, indicating emerging international demand visibility. 5. Entering Defense and the ongoing global 155mm ammunition shortage (est. 4M+ unit annual deficit) supports a multi-year replenishment cycle, with HFCL entering the segment via its operational Hosur facility (Electronic Fuzes (Percussion, Proximity, and Time fuzes), Thermal Weapon Sights, Surveillance Radars, and High-Capacity Radio Relays (HCRR))(annual capacity: 250,000 fuzes). Following the successful completion of electronic fuze firing trials in January 2026, the company is transitioning to serial production with a management revenue target of ₹400–500 Cr in FY27 (initial scale, subject to order ramp-up). HFCL is also developing a 1,000-acre greenfield defense mega facility (high-barrier entry) in Madakasira, Andhra Pradesh, designed for Artillery Ammunition Shells, TNT Filling, and Multi-Mode Hand Grenades (MMHG) which could scale to ₹1,500 – ₹2,500 Crore+ annually by FY28–29 post phase 1 & 2. Key risks include limited visibility on large-value long-term defence contracts, execution and certification timelines, potential delays in capex commissioning, order conversion risk, near-term working capital, continued promoter stake dilution, retail-heavy shareholding leading to potential overhead supply and debt serviceability pressures during the capex cycle. (High PE of 205 because HFCL intentionally started rejecting low-margin EPC (turnkey) telecom contracts to focus on products. This caused an immediate gap in revenue. Simultaneously, they are spending heavily on capex, which combined caused losses in few quarters. PE will normalize as product revenues scale and earnings catch up)

#TIMETECHNO - Time Technoplast Time Technoplast is India’s largest manufacturer of large plastic drums and a dominant global player in industrial packaging, but the real story is its structural shift from low-margin commodity packaging to higher-margin composite products (like CNG cylinders and IBC tanks). That mix shift is the primary re-rating driver. Q3 FY26 numbers validate this trajectory: Revenue hit ₹1,567 Cr (+12.8% YoY), PAT surged to ₹126 Cr (+25.4% YoY), and EBITDA margins expanded to 15%. Currently, the business mix is roughly 70% packaging and 30% composites, with exports contributing 36% of total revenue. The market has begun pricing in this transformation, with the stock currently trading around 18–21x FY26E PE, up from its historical range of 14–17x. Growth Catalysts & Triggers 1. The Margin accretive mix shift: Composite products are growing at a rapid 25–30% range, vastly outpacing the 11–13% growth of the base packaging business. Crucially, composites carry ~17–18% margins compared to just ~12–13.5% in base packaging. Management is aggressively targeting the composite share to reach ~35% within the next two years, acting as the company's biggest long-term profit driver. As of March 25, 2026, the company successfully completed its planned Q4 FY26 greenfield and brownfield expansions on schedule, with trial production already underway. This includes Phase I of the Morai composite cylinder plant (adding 600 cascades) and a new 12,000 MT recycling plant, directly supporting the high-margin mix shift and captive cost-efficiency targets. 2. Strong CNG Cascade Demand & Visibility: The company continues to capitalize on India's City Gas Distribution network expansion. The Type-IV CNG cylinder order book stands at a healthy ~₹165 Cr. This was recently bolstered by a fresh ₹115.56 Cr PSU order secured in March 2026. Because execution is slated within a year, this provides excellent near-term revenue visibility. 3. Balance Sheet Deleveraging & ROCE Expansion: Following an ₹800 Cr QIP, the company has aggressively cleaned up its balance sheet, reducing debt sharply to ~₹266 Cr. Management has guided to become completely debt-free within ~6 months. Eliminating this debt will save ~₹25–30 Cr annually in finance costs, dropping directly to the bottom line and driving a structural expansion in Return on Capital Employed (ROCE). 4. Long-Duration Optionality (Hydrogen & Batteries): The company is planting seeds for the next decade of energy infrastructure. They recently received their first trial order (~₹2.3 Cr) for hydrogen cylinders. Additionally, their battery arm secured CPRI certification, opening access to lucrative utility and EPC projects. While small today, these provide excellent long-term optionality requiring little incremental capital. Key Risks: The immediate execution risk lies in the reliance on lumpy, project-based PSU orders for CNG cascades, which can make quarterly revenue recognition uneven. Scaling the composite business to the 35% target requires flawless, steady execution. On the macro front, the company remains sensitive to polymer price volatility and, with 35-40% export exposure, is vulnerable to a broader global economic slowdown as well as geopolitical & freight disruptions, and finally, while the balance sheet is repaired, the recent QIP dilution requires sustained, high-paced earnings growth to justify the returns to shareholders.

When you buy the dip but then the dip keeps dipping and you run out of cash.

#QPOWER - holding up well in the correction

@GingerInvest44 yess👌

@ryzin05 It's time to look into Time Technoplast

@bdrijalab cant agree more!! Unadkat is their lead bowler 😂

Arguably the worst ever bowling line up to be assembled in IPL History? I mean people here fear about CSK bowling but we are no way this much absolute sh~t house. We actually have way way way better bowling line up than this and pretty confident we will do good this time around

LPG cylinders are a tiny fraction of their total revenues. Also the PNG theme is a tailwind for them. They already have many gas distribution companies as their existing clients, and they have recently received BIS license on its Polyethylene pipes specifically for gas distribution sector.

@ryzin05 I see slowdown in their LPG cylender buisness Govt may focus on PNG

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