Sam Gaer

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUS 18-Mar-2026 BTC $72,489 (-1.85%) | ETH $2,241 (-3.42%) BTC and ETH are both lower in the last 24h, but still positive on the week (+4.13% and +10.49% respectively), signaling a pre-FOMC consolidation rather than a structural break. Cross-asset tape is mixed: ES +0.53% and NQ +0.68% while COMEX gold and silver are down -2.23% and -1.77%. Positioning is still CONTRACTING with OI drifting lower while price is softer, and the deleveraging profile is long-led. 24h liquidations are moderate at $273.25M, with 72.5% on longs, consistent with leverage cleanup rather than broad panic. Funding remains near neutral to constructive: BTC is -0.0083% (CONSTRUCTIVE) and ETH is +0.0024% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE). Volatility is split: BTC DVOL 52.36 (MODERATE), ETH DVOL 76.87 (ELEVATED). Variance pricing still shows options underpricing realized movement on a 30d IV vs 30d RV basis for both BTC and ETH. Macro remains the near-term driver into today's Fed communication. ─── 24h Liquidations: $273.25M (72.5% longs) ETF Flows: BTC $0M | ETH $0M Funding: -0.0083% (CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 26 (FEAR) OI Change: BTC -0.55% | ETH -3.71% | SOL -2.66% (CONTRACTING) ─── Key Headlines: • The Fed issues its latest interest rate decision Wednesday. Here's what to expect • Bitcoin is stuck below $75,000 even after landmark SEC, CFTC crypto rules • UK lawmakers urge 'immediate moratorium' on crypto political donations ─── Support: $72,872 | Resistance: $75,473 Primary Risk: Hawkish Fed language into elevated ETH volatility Catalyst: Fed rate decision and Powell press conference today 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUSLY CONSTRUCTIVE 17-Mar-2026 BTC $73,875 (+0.08%) | ETH $2,321 (+1.62%) BTC is holding gains on the week (+4.62%) while ETH continues to lead (+12.57% 7d), keeping relative momentum tilted toward higher beta. Cross-asset tone is supportive with ES +0.98% and NQ +1.01%, while GC +0.63% and SI +0.87% show precious metals also advancing. 24h liquidations reached $470.4M, with 64.9% from shorts, consistent with short-covering pressure rather than a long-side cascade. Funding remains controlled: BTC -0.001% (CONSTRUCTIVE) and ETH +0.0007% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE), so leverage is not showing overheating signals. Sentiment is still cautious with F&G at 28 (FEAR), which keeps positioning asymmetry intact if spot demand improves. Volatility is diverging by asset class: BTC DVOL 52.09% (MODERATE) vs ETH DVOL 75.21% (ELEVATED). On variance pricing, 30d IV vs 30d RV is 53.65% vs 64.23% for BTC and 69.67% vs 91.02% for ETH, indicating options remain cheaper than realized movement. Macro risk is still active with VIX at 22.81 (NERVOUS) and geopolitical headlines centered on Iran/Hormuz, so risk budgeting still matters despite constructive crypto internals. ─── 24h Liquidations: $470.4M (35.1% longs) ETF Flows: BTC $0M | ETH $0M Funding: -0.001% (CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 28 (FEAR) ─── Key Headlines: • Mastercard to acquire stablecoin infrastructure firm BVNK for up to $1.8B • PayPal expands PYUSD into 70 markets • Argentina orders nationwide block of Polymarket • South Korea fines Bithumb $24M and imposes partial suspension • Oil jumps as Strait of Hormuz security concerns intensify ─── Support: $73,134 | Resistance: $75,772 Primary Risk: Geopolitical energy shock spilling into broader risk deleveraging Catalyst: Macro volatility impulse via oil/war headlines 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUSLY CONSTRUCTIVE 16-Mar-2026 BTC $73,844 (+3.1%) | ETH $2,284 (+8.2%) BTC pressing toward a six-week high with ETH outperforming — ETH/BTC ratio up +5.2% to 0.0309. 24h liquidations at $406M with 79% short-side, a proper short squeeze cleaning out crowded positioning. Funding remains MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE at 0.003% on BTC, no leverage chase. F&G at 23 (EXTREME FEAR) diverging sharply from price action — the recovery is happening into deeply skeptical hands. ES +0.9% at 6,699, NQ +1.2% at 24,675. 10Y yield down -4.9bps to 4.236%. VIX still ELEVATED at 25.02 but fading -8.0%. US-Iran war entering week three keeps geopolitical premium embedded with oil approaching $100. Fed rate decision this week is the primary scheduled catalyst. BTC DVOL at 53.1 (MODERATE), ETH DVOL at 76.05 (ELEVATED). VRP deeply negative on both — realized vol running well above implied. BTC options flow bearish (1.46 P/C, net selling), ETH bullish (0.73 P/C, net buying). Strategy added $1.57B in BTC last week; crypto funds posted $1B in inflows for a third straight week. ─── 24h Liquidations: $406M (79% shorts) ETF Flows: Weekend — N/A Funding: 0.003% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 23 (EXTREME FEAR) ─── Headlines: • Strategy buys $1.57B in BTC, holdings at 761K • Crypto funds post third straight week of $1B inflows • Fed rate decision and FOMC press conference this week • Bitcoin hits $74.4K as US-Iran war enters third week • Metaplanet raises $255M for Bitcoin accumulation ─── Support: $71,383 | Resistance: $73,723 Risk: Geopolitical escalation / oil above $100 Catalyst: Fed decision Wednesday 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

I was on @FINTECHTVglobal this morning with @RemyBlaireNews live from the @NYSE floor. Always great to see the team and spend time on the floor of the exchange. We talked about current market trends and the evolution of exchanges, with innovation now being led by @HyperliquidX and its HIP3 protocol. A perfect example: this weekend, price discovery in oil, gold, and silver effectively happened on @HyperliquidX while traditional exchanges were closed. Markets don’t sleep anymore.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUSLY CONSTRUCTIVE 13-Mar-2026 BTC $72,430 (+2.8%) | ETH $2,133 (+3.2%) BTC reclaimed $72k and is outperforming equities meaningfully — ES +0.35%, NQ +0.32% — despite oil pressing $100 on Strait of Hormuz disruption and the DXY firming to 100.06. This is a notable change in character from Q1's risk-off correlation. F&G sits at 15 (EXTREME FEAR) yet price is advancing, with 24h liquidations skewing 73% short — the crowd is positioned wrong. Funding is CONSTRUCTIVE at -0.0025% on BTC. Strategy added 4,000+ BTC via STRC, and corporate holdings hit record highs at 2.8x mining supply. BlackRock's staked ETH ETF debuted with $15M in volume. BTC DVOL at 53.62 (MODERATE) with negative VRP — options underpricing realized vol. Q4 GDP revised to 0.7% with core PCE at 3.1%, a stagflationary backdrop that complicates the Fed path. ─── 24h Liquidations: $288M (73% shorts) ETF Flows: N/A Funding: -0.0025% (CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 15 (EXTREME FEAR) BTC DVOL: 53.62 | ETH DVOL: 74.11 ─── Headlines: • Q4 GDP revised down to 0.7%, core PCE at 3.1% • Oil holds near $100 on Strait of Hormuz disruption • Strategy buys 4,000+ BTC via STRC • BlackRock staked ETH ETF debuts with $15M volume • TOKEN2049 Dubai postponed to 2027 on security risks • TRUMP token surges +49% to $4.25 ─── Support: $69,565 | Resistance: $71,777 Risk: Oil shock escalation / stagflation Catalyst: Fed events, Iran ceasefire developments 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUS 12-Mar-2026 BTC $70,385 (+1.6%) | ETH $2,064 (+1.9%) Crypto bouncing while equities slip — BTC reclaiming ground above $70K as ES and NQ both trade down -0.7%. The divergence is notable given the Iran war escalation pushing oil back above $100 and Goldman cutting the US economic outlook. Funding rates are VERY CONSTRUCTIVE on BTC at -0.005%, shorts paying longs. 24h liquidations were MODERATE at $183M, skewed 57.7% short-side — the bounce has squeeze mechanics behind it. OI continues building across exchanges with Hyperliquid up +3.5% on BTC, suggesting new positioning into the move rather than deleveraging. F&G at 18 (EXTREME FEAR) with negative funding is historically a constructive setup, but the macro overhang from geopolitics and elevated VIX at 25.6 warrants caution. Strategy added an estimated 7,000 BTC this week, providing a bid floor. ─── 24h Liquidations: $183M (58% shorts) ETF Flows: N/A Funding: -0.005% (VERY CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 18 (EXTREME FEAR) ─── Headlines: • Goldman cuts US economic outlook over Iran war • BlackRock debuts staked ether ETF • Strategy buys estimated 7,000 BTC this week • Pump.fun becomes Solana's first $1B revenue platform • Grayscale debuts Avalanche staking ETF on Nasdaq ─── Support: $69,006 | Resistance: $71,349 Risk: Geopolitical escalation / oil supply disruption Catalyst: CPI data, Iran developments 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUS 11-Mar-2026 BTC $70,281 (+0.5%) | ETH $2,057 (+1.4%) BTC and ETH are stable on the day, but the broader risk signal remains defensive. Fear & Greed is 15 (EXTREME FEAR), while 24h liquidations are $247M with 52.7% on the long side, a MODERATE deleveraging profile rather than a full reset. BTC funding at -0.0011% reads CONSTRUCTIVE and ETH funding at 0.0005% reads MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE, but OI changes across major CEX venues are mixed, with BTC OI softer on Binance/Bybit/OKX while ETH OI is stronger on OKX. Vol remains a key constraint: BTC DVOL is 54.6% (MODERATE) and ETH DVOL is 74.9% (ELEVATED). In VRP terms (30d IV vs 30d RV), BTC is 55.87% vs 60.60% and ETH is 70.51% vs 86.36%, so realized is still running above implied in both majors. Macro is not giving clean relief either, with DXY at 99.10 (+0.27%), UST 10Y at 4.18% (+4.7 bps), and VIX at 24.61 (NERVOUS). ─── 24h Liquidations: $246.91M (52.7% longs) ETF Flows: BTC $0M | ETH $0M Funding: -0.0011% (CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 15 (EXTREME FEAR) ─── Headlines: • U.S. February CPI matches forecasts • Binance sues WSJ over Iran-linked reporting • Hormuz shipping incidents raise energy risk ─── Support: $68,301 | Resistance: $71,687 Primary Risk: Macro-geopolitical spillover into tighter financial conditions Catalyst: U.S. inflation and rates path repricing 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUS 06-Mar-2026 BTC $70,110 (-3.3%) | ETH $2,050 (-3.4%) BTC failed to hold the $74K level from earlier this week, sliding back toward $70K ahead of the February jobs report. ETH is tracking in line at -3.4% with the ETH/BTC ratio stuck at 0.029. Weekly gains remain intact — BTC +6.0%, ETH +4.7% — but momentum is fading. Precious metals continue to outperform on the Iran war bid, with gold at $5,091 and silver at $82.44. VIX is ELEVATED at 25.41 with ES -0.6% and NQ -0.8%. BTC perp OI is declining across all major venues — Binance -10.2%, Bybit -11.6% — consistent with a leverage reset. ETH funding is CONSTRUCTIVE at -0.004%, while BTC funding is MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE at 0.002%. BTC DVOL is MODERATE at 54.9 with the VRP deeply negative at -29.0 (30d IV 47.4% vs 30d RV 76.3%), meaning protection is cheap. ─── 24h Liquidations: $261M (73% longs) ETF Flows: BTC -$228M | ETH -$91M Funding: BTC 0.002% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE) | ETH -0.004% (CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 18 (EXTREME FEAR) BTC DVOL: 54.9 | ETH DVOL: 77.1 ─── Headlines: • Iran war drives oil above $86 WTI, $89 Brent • BTC ETFs log $228M outflows, reversing $462M inflow • Kazakhstan central bank to invest $350M in digital assets • Stablecoin legislation stalls over yield provisions • NYSE acquires stake in crypto exchange ─── Support: $68,000 | Resistance: $74,000 Risk: Jobs miss amplifying war-driven risk-off Catalyst: February NFP today, Fed commentary next week 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUSLY CONSTRUCTIVE 05-Mar-2026 BTC $72,474 (+1.7%) | ETH $2,120 (+3.0%) BTC pressing toward $74K, up +6.3% on the week, driven by persistent ETF inflows — $1.1B over three days with IBIT pulling $306.6M yesterday alone. ETH outperforming on the session at +3.0% but the ETH/BTC ratio continues to compress at 0.0293. Short squeeze dynamics are in play: 24h liquidations at $470.7M with 74% short-side, and perp OI climbing double digits across major venues. Funding at 0.001% BTC / -0.003% ETH remains CONSTRUCTIVE — the rally hasn't overheated yet. F&G at 22 (EXTREME FEAR) diverging sharply from price, creating a wall of worry that supports further upside if flows persist. Macro is cautious with VIX at 21.83 (NERVOUS) on Iran tensions, but BTC advancing into geopolitical stress reinforces the safe-haven narrative among allocators. BTC DVOL at 55.17 (MODERATE), ETH DVOL at 74.78 (ELEVATED). ETH realized vol running well ahead of implied — protection remains cheap. ─── 24h Liquidations: $470.7M (74% shorts) ETF Flows: BTC +$461.9M | ETH +$169.4M Funding: BTC 0.001% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE) | ETH -0.003% (CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 22 (EXTREME FEAR) ─── Headlines: • NYSE parent ICE invests in OKX at $25B valuation • Bitcoin ETF inflows top $1B in three days • a16z seeking $2B for fifth crypto fund • Kraken gains Federal Reserve system access • FATF flags P2P stablecoin transfers as top AML risk ─── Max Pain: BTC $69,000 | ETH $1,950 Primary Risk: Iran escalation triggering broad risk-off Catalyst: Continued ETF flow momentum, Fed commentary 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUSLY CONSTRUCTIVE 04-Mar-2026 BTC $71,350 (+6.3%) | ETH $2,061 (+5.3%) BTC pushed through $71,000 to a one-month high, up +8.0% on the week, moving in tandem with gold ($5,198, +1.8% on COMEX) rather than equities. 24h liquidations hit $415M with 65.6% on the short side — this is a squeeze-driven move into declining OI, which is healthy. ETF flows remain supportive: BTC saw +$225.2M (SOLID INFLOW) led by IBIT +$322.4M, while ETH posted -$10.8M (LIGHT OUTFLOW). Funding at 0.0081% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE) confirms positioning is not overheated. F&G at 10 (EXTREME FEAR) diverges sharply from price action — a contrarian signal. DXY weakening to 98.82, VIX at 22.38 (NERVOUS) but fading -5% on session. ADP printed a soft 63K jobs. BTC DVOL at 55.76 (MODERATE), ETH DVOL at 74.51 (ELEVATED). VRP deeply negative on both assets — protection remains cheap vs realized. ─── 24h Liquidations: $415M (66% shorts) ETF Flows: BTC +$225.2M | ETH -$10.8M Funding: 0.0081% (MILDLY CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 10 (EXTREME FEAR) ─── Headlines: • Kraken secures Fed master account access — first crypto firm • Morgan Stanley files BTC ETF with Coinbase/BNY custody • CFTC Chair says U.S. perpetual futures coming, eyes April • Bessent: global 15% tariff starts this week • Strategy signals 1,000 BTC buy via STRC issuance ─── Max Pain: BTC $69,000 | ETH $2,000 Risk: Tariff escalation, Iran conflict widening Catalyst: NFP Friday, CFTC perps decision April 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUS 03-Mar-2026 BTC $66,715 (-0.4%) | ETH $1,950 (-1.3%) Iran conflict escalation is the dominant driver this morning. DXY surged +1.0% to 99.37, VIX spiked +19% to 25.58 (ELEVATED), and ES sold off -1.9% to 6,760. Gold down -4.1% and silver -9.2% on broad deleveraging — even safe havens are not immune. BTC holding up relatively well on the day but the weekly bounce (+6.1%) faces serious headwinds from the macro regime shift. Despite EXTREME FEAR (F&G at 14), institutional flows remain constructive. BTC ETFs posted +$458M SOLID INFLOW on Monday, led by IBIT at +$263M. Funding is CONSTRUCTIVE across the board — BTC at -0.0001%, ETH at -0.011% — shorts paying longs. 24h liquidations at $457M (ELEVATED, 56% long) represent a relatively balanced flush rather than a one-sided cascade. BTC DVOL at 54.29 (MODERATE) and ETH DVOL at 71.93 (ELEVATED). VRP deeply negative on both — BTC 30d IV at 40.5 vs 30d RV at 76.3, meaning protection is cheap relative to realized. BTC 25d risk reversals at -7.7 on the front end confirm persistent put demand. ─── 24h Liquidations: $457M (56% longs) ETF Flows: BTC +$458M | ETH +$39M Funding: BTC -0.0001% (CONSTRUCTIVE) | ETH -0.011% (VERY CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 14 (EXTREME FEAR) BTC OI: $24.2B | ETH OI: $14.2B ─── Headlines: • Iran conflict escalation sends dollar surging, equities selling off • JPMorgan's Dimon calls for bank-style stablecoin yield rules • Ondo tokenized stocks win Abu Dhabi regulatory approval • MARA and Core Scientific signal shift to selling BTC holdings • Visa and Bridge plan stablecoin card expansion to 100+ countries ─── Support: $65,000 | Resistance: $67,000 Risk: DXY breakout and oil shock triggering broader risk-off cascade Catalyst: Midterm elections today; Iran conflict developments 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.

NEW: BLOOMBERG REPORTS HYPERLIQUID'S RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN FUTURES LINKED TO TRADITIONAL ASSETS SOURCE: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

With this weekend's events — U.S. strikes on Iran, oil spiking, gold repricing — I published a note internally to our team and clients that I think captures something important about where exchange infrastructure is headed. The thesis is simple: while hundred-year old TradFi exchanges were dark during the most consequential geopolitical event of 2026, price discovery for gold, silver, and oil futures happened on Hyperliquid— a permissionless, on-chain perpetual futures exchange. Traders with an internet connection and a wallet were hedging and repricing risk in real time. Price discovery, transparency, and risk transfer occurred seamlessly and on-chain for all to see. No market data fees, no special connectivity or licensing needed. Everyone else was waiting for a Sunday night open. What I saw this weekend was the clearest signal yet that 24/7, self-custodied, transparent trading infrastructure is where all of this ends up. The note covers Hyperliquid's volume and open interest trajectory, the HIP-3 permissionless listing framework, tokenomics, and where it trades relative to traditional exchange comps (CME Group, ICE, Cboe Global Markets, Coinbase, Robinhood). Written for institutional allocators. This weekend's price discovery happened on-chain. That matters. Manage accordingly. #Hyperliquid. x.com/samg67/status/… #Hyperliquid #HYPE #DeFi #CryptoTrading #ExchangeInfrastructure #PerpetualFutures #OnChain #CryptoDerivatives #HIP3 #HIP4 #Bitcoin #Gold #Silver #CME #NYMEX #TradFi #Web3 #InstitutionalCrypto #PriceDiscovery #MarketStructure @johnjdagostino

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — RISK-OFF 02-Mar-2026 BTC $65,832 (-0.7%) | ETH $1,934 (-2.2%) BTC is holding better than equities as the Iran conflict enters day three — ES -0.95%, NQ -1.26%, while gold surges +3.4% to $5,411. Crypto is trading as a hybrid: not pure risk-on, not pure safe haven, but somewhere in between during a shooting war. The F&G Index has collapsed to 10 (EXTREME FEAR). 24h liquidations hit $317M with 62% long-side, clearing out leveraged positioning. Funding is CONSTRUCTIVE across the board — BTC at -0.0001%, ETH at -0.0108%. Option surfaces show deep put skew: BTC 1d 25d RR at -9.73, ETH at -15.59. BTC DVOL at 54.93 (MODERATE), ETH DVOL at 72.34 (ELEVATED). Protection remains cheap vs realized — VRP deeply negative on both assets. ─── 24h Liquidations: $317M (62% longs) ETF Flows: BTC -$27.5M | ETH -$43M Funding: BTC -0.0001% (CONSTRUCTIVE) | ETH -0.0108% (VERY CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 10 (EXTREME FEAR) VIX: 23.27 (NERVOUS, +17.2%) ─── Headlines: • U.S.-Iran conflict day 3, Qatar halts LNG production • Bitcoin outperforms equities in risk-off session • Strategy buys 3,015 BTC for $204M, holdings top 720K BTC • Crypto funds attract $1B, ending 5-week outflow streak • Senate Dems press DOJ on Binance-Trump ties, Iran sanctions ─── Support: $64,000 | Resistance: $66,000 Risk: Conflict escalation, Strait of Hormuz disruption Catalyst: U.S. jobs report Friday 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺."

Monarq Saturday Report(2/2): On the options side, BTC DVOL is MODERATE at 55.3% while ETH DVOL is ELEVATED at 73.3%. BTC options flow shows a put/call ratio of 1.56 with puts dominating — 22,140 put contracts vs 14,221 calls, put premium of $18.2M nearly double call premium of $9.8M. BTC GEX is negative at -$7.6M — dealers amplifying moves. BTC max pain at $65,500 just above spot; ETH max pain at $1,925. The Variance Risk Premium is deeply negative: BTC 30d IV at 38.2% vs 30d RV at 77.8% (VRP: -40pts), ETH 30d IV at 54.2% vs 30d RV at 103.9% (VRP: -50pts). Protection is cheap relative to realized moves. BTC term structure inverted in the front end, 25-delta risk reversals sharply negative at -16.1 on the front end — heavy put skew. Macro adding pressure. ES at 6,889 (-0.45%), NQ at 25,005 (-0.30%) (Yahoo Finance). VIX jumped +6.6% to 19.86 — NORMAL but approaching nervous threshold. DXY at 97.61 (-0.18%). 10Y fell -5.5bps to 3.96%, 2Y dipped -1bp to 3.58%, 2s10s spread at 38bps. Flight to safety evident: treasuries and gold advancing while equities and crypto sell off. On-chain: spot DEX volume $7.8B/24h, Uniswap V3 leading at $1.18B. Hyperliquid Perps holds $5.5B in OI. Protocol revenue declining across the board — Hyperliquid -37% MoM, Pump.fun -36%, Lido -36%. Morgan Stanley filing for crypto custody bank charter (The Block), Barclays exploring crypto payments (Decrypt), SEC Chairman Atkins signaling intent to "regain crypto ground" (The Block). STANCE: RISK-OFF

Monarq Saturday Report (1/2) BTC trades at $64,790 (-2.0% on the day, -5.6% on the week) while ETH sits at $1,897 (-2.6%, -4.6% weekly). Bitcoin is now -48.6% from its all-time high of $126,000 and down -27.4% over the past 30 days. ETH is faring worse at -61.2% from its ATH, with ETH/BTC at 0.0293. Total crypto market cap has contracted to $2.31T. The geopolitical backdrop is driving price action. U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran have sent risk assets lower and safe havens sharply higher (CNBC, MarketWatch). Gold (GC) is at $5,230 (+1.0%) and silver (SI) surged +6.5% to $92.68 — crypto is materially underperforming precious metals as the market prices geopolitical escalation risk. Trump has called for regime change, and markets are bracing for Iranian retaliation (MarketWatch). The Fear & Greed Index reads 11, deep in EXTREME FEAR territory. 24h liquidations via CoinGlass came in at $500.9M (ELEVATED), with 71.6% on the long side — the largest single liquidation was $11.17M. BTC accounted for $290.5M of that, ETH $90.2M, and alts $120.2M. Funding rates are CONSTRUCTIVE across the board: BTC at -0.0045% on Binance and ETH at -0.0072%, with every major exchange printing negative. This is the setup for a potential short squeeze if geopolitical risk de-escalates. BTC ETF flows on Feb 27 came in at -$27.5M (LIGHT OUTFLOW), with IBIT shedding -$32.7M — though the weekly picture remains positive at +$787.4M across 5 days, a sharp reversal from last week's -$315.9M. ETH ETFs saw -$43.0M (LIGHT OUTFLOW), entirely from ETHA, with the weekly total at +$80.5M vs prior week's -$123.3M. Aggregate BTC futures OI sits at $22.7B across exchanges (AmberData), with Binance at $7.5B (-1.9% 24h). ETH futures OI totals $12.9B, with Bitget down -16.4%, Hyperliquid down -9.3%, and Bybit down -8.5%. The deleveraging is concentrated in ETH.

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗾 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 — CAUTIOUS 27-Feb-2026 BTC $66,204 (-2.5%) | ETH $1,961 (-5.1%) BTC is down -25.7% over 30 days and sitting -47.4% from its ATH — the drawdown is accelerating. ETH is underperforming at -35.1% monthly with the ETH/BTC ratio compressing to 0.0296. Both assets are materially lagging precious metals — GC +1.0% and SI surging +6.3%. The disconnect between sentiment and flows is the key tension. F&G at 13 (EXTREME FEAR) with 24h liquidations of $311M (72.4% longs), yet BTC spot ETFs posted +$254M yesterday and +$815M for the week — institutional allocators are buying the drawdown. Funding rates are CONSTRUCTIVE (BTC -0.0019%) to VERY CONSTRUCTIVE (ETH -0.0112%), and aggregate OI is declining across exchanges, consistent with deleveraging rather than fresh shorts. Options surfaces confirm hedging demand: BTC put-call ratio at 1.27 with put premium 5x calls. BTC DVOL at 52.92 and ETH DVOL at 69.94, both elevated. VRP deeply negative in ETH — protection is cheap relative to realized moves. Macro is adding pressure with hot PPI (+0.8%) and VIX at 21.51 (NERVOUS). ─── 24h Liquidations: $311M (72.4% longs) ETF Flows: BTC +$254M | ETH +$6.6M Funding: BTC -0.0019% (CONSTRUCTIVE) F&G: 13 (EXTREME FEAR) BTC DVOL: 52.92 | ETH DVOL: 69.94 ─── Headlines: • Bitcoin ETFs absorb $1.1B in three days despite drawdown • Core PPI surges 0.8% in January above estimates • Bitcoin options desks report surge in sub-$60K put buying • Citi announces Bitcoin custody and TradFi integration • MARA posts $1.7B quarterly loss, pivots to AI ─── Primary Risk: Continued deleveraging if $65K support fails Catalyst: Tariff refund court deadline today 𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘍𝘰𝘳 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺.