SamuelCui

77 posts

SamuelCui

SamuelCui

@samuel_n_cui

Katılım Şubat 2018
190 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@dmakogon @josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D Sorry for the directness. So I hear if you have no ground to stand on in an argument, then you should pick the opponent’s attitude problem. Is this the case?
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Corey - Mojee3D
Corey - Mojee3D@Mojee3d·
I have receieved a LOT of DM's about this. Some in agreement, some in disagreement, and then everything in between. My point for the OG post and the poll is this...what IF? Right? What IF, you lived in Wyoming, Florida, or some place in Europe and you could purchase a @Prusa3D Core One+ fully assembled, with a built in camera and filtration, for $899 + a moderate shipping fee? Would an amazing printer like this, with those features, at that price, cause you to pick this over a @BambulabGlobal P2S or X2D? The current trending dicussion in 3DP is how BAD Bambu is, and rightfully so, they make thier own bed. But, the alternatives are more of the same, or a more open source friendly alternative that is significanly more expensive. But, what IF, that open source friendly, ethical company, Prusa, was at a price that most people found obtainable? #Hope
Corey - Mojee3D tweet media
Corey - Mojee3D@Mojee3d

Why don't you own a @Prusa3D 3D Printer? Maybe I'm wrong about my statement regarding an $899 Prusa being something people would want.

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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D Also, maybe consider spending a bit more to hire better engineers? Your salaries are lower than Bambu’s, making it hard to attract top talent. Combine that with the Czech brain drain, and you've probably found the root cause of your constant delays and UX issues.
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Josef Prusa
Josef Prusa@josefprusa·
I respect that price has big impact for large part of the market - at the same time it is why west is so hesitant to deal with this. But lets not get into that debate today. On partnerships. I am from Czechia, big automotive industry and I have lot of insights. EU automotive will be happy if it survives their attempt with partnerships 😬 But this is little bit closer to your home, nice weekend read amazon.com/Apple-China-Ca… Let's not entertain this "what if" please 😂
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@drewrog @josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D Czech wages aren't actually higher than Shenzhen's. Bambu pays engineers WAY more than Prusa does. Prusa pays factory workers better, sure, but with Shenzhen's current automation, they barely need manual labor anyway.
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D I'm applying for patents in several countries right now. The scope of protection for Chinese utility model patents is different from that of invention patents. But you likely already know this, you're just playing dumb.
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D Now, VW's complacency has completely destroyed my hometown's economy. So it's a bit ironic to hear you complaining about the decline of the European auto industry now. 2/2
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D I'm from a city in China where Volkswagen has a plant—a quarter of our city is literally just auto factories. At its peak, VW was making over 5 billion euros a year from the Chinese market, only to use that money to cheat on diesel emissions. 1/2
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D Europeans nowadays can only comfort themselves by claiming that China's cost advantage is 'all subsidies.' Pure coping. If Chinese companies have any advantage, it's simply that China (or any non-European country) isn't bogged down by bureaucratic procedures like Europe is.
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Josef Prusa
Josef Prusa@josefprusa·
Hi Corey, you mentioned getting DMs from every direction on this. So this reply is partly to you, partly to that broader conversation and comments on both of your posts, because some of what's flying around needs context. It unfortunately isn't that easy. Price is primarily set by the bill of materials. I can't make parts cheaper just by wanting it harder. And there's nothing extra on CORE One, every part has a job. Strip any part and you get a different printer. What most people would not expect and many actually think it is a solution: manufacturing in China doesn't fix this either. Take an entry-level Chinese printer apart, quote the same parts in China at 100k+ volume, the parts alone cost more than the printer sells for in the West. Where is the sense in retail below parts cost? Do this long enough and price perception is permanently skewed. Some of what props it up: 0% interest loans, multi-year tax holidays, free land, free factories, 200% R&D tax deductions. And at the wild end, the state pays consumers back ~15% of the printer's price as a rebate. They are literally running out of ways to push more money into the propped industries. None of that is available to any Western company manufacturing in the West, or even trying to manufacture in China. And this isn't just a 3D printing problem. Same playbook took solar, drones, batteries, EVs. Now it's working on robotics. 3D printing would be done if we wouldn't be soo stubborn💪 About the “competitiveness“ I keep seeing in the replies. God I hate that word. Part of every conversation about every industry, especially in the EU. It’s shifting the problem to western industry side. Real problem is China breaking the WTO rules the next day after joining. So an $899 CORE One isn't a price decision. And unfortunately the "what if" framing, however hopeful, reinforces exactly the view that's hurting us in too many people's eyes. Complex and heavy topic, but tried to add some context.
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@josefprusa @Mojee3d @Prusa3D Only if Bambu is using purely manual assembly like your company. However, Chinese companies nowadays are generally highly automated. If you visited the factories in Shenzhen yourself, you wouldn't make such an ignorant statement.
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ODIO A LOS JUBILADOS
ODIO A LOS JUBILADOS@durocomoeldiego·
@PuertoSeguro12 @TheDeadDistrict My country (Argentina) purchased a small lot of Norinco 105mm APDSFS shells for the TAM and had similar issues when firing them. They got replaced by Elbit's M426 and recently M428.
ODIO A LOS JUBILADOS tweet media
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@ChinaMacroFacts 我都不知道 Hellfire 翻译成中文应该叫什么…… 地狱之火?中国人不会用这些基督教术语呀。估计是翻译或者传播过程中搞错了。
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中国政经事实ChinaFacts
中国政经事实ChinaFacts@ChinaMacroFacts·
wsj报道里写李威胁“the US would face ‘hellfire’ if things didn’t go his way” 这句话如果出现在任何一个别的地方,与中国无关,你认为这是什么样的人说的话?十字军?基地组织?ISIS?
地缘政治熬鹰学@redneck892

@ChinaMacroFacts 明显是贝森特气急败坏了,甩锅给中国较低阶官员 这波是美国先破坏马德里协定,闻泰科技一系列事情,贝森特不会说这个的

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kenshin47
kenshin47@kenshindaisy47·
@fxtrader 并没有该评论,是删了?
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外汇交易员
外汇交易员@fxtrader·
DeepSeek在其官宣发布DeepSeek-V3.1的文章中提到,DeepSeek-V3.1使用了UE8M0 FP8 Scale的参数精度。另外,V3.1对分词器及chat template进行了较大调整,与DeepSeek-V3存在明显差异。 DeepSeekg官方在置顶留言里表示,UE8M0 FP8是针对即将发布的下一代国产芯片设计。
外汇交易员 tweet media
外汇交易员@fxtrader

DeepSeek刚刚官宣V3.1模型。模型同时支持思考模式与非思考模式;思考效率提升,相比DeepSeek-R1-0528,DeepSeek-V3.1-Think能在更短时间内给出答案;Agent能力更强,通过Post-Training优化,新模型在工具使用与智能体任务中的表现有较大提升。

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Li yan Xu shen
Li yan Xu shen@LiyanXushen2·
@jianlvup 一告诉,你很有天分,二,不能在家具上画,三既然画了,就好好的把其余几扇门都好好的 用心地画好,再奖励几块巧克力。
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@bboczeng 刚刚看了下,中国很多城市从去年开始都支持 Visa/MasterCard 了
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@bboczeng 呃,起码就我所知,其他城市不知道,新加坡、北京地铁早就支持了……
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@kayliatyyy 这个文章感觉前后有冲突吧。「缩减投资,市场的水就没有了」本身就意味着衰退。如果真的通缩了,会比贸易战的影响更大。
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kayliat 凯利亚特
kayliat 凯利亚特@kayliatyyy·
我来回答一下: 1. 如果关税只有10%的话可以参考第一次中美贸易战,上一次美国的进口商和消费者承担了大约4%的关税,剩余部分都被中国出口商吸收掉了,所以对于美国的通胀有影响,但不会很大,对中国出口商的收入影响会更大一些。其他国家的关税影响也可以参考上一次中美关税战。 2. 先说通胀,我可能与X上绝大多数的宏观分析师有不同的看法,我认为美国目前正处在一个通缩的环境,CPI,PPI,PCE的数据有滞后,我倾向看大宗商品走势,消费者信心指数,还有房屋租金来映射实时的通胀情况。现在铜,石油,铁矿石在特朗普自由日之后下跌,石油更是跌破60美元。消费者指数也是环比下降,房屋租金根据apartment list的领先指标5月数据MOM下降-0.3%。市场普遍认为关税会导致供应端短缺,导致物价上涨,但实际上特朗普的不确定性导致了供给侧的下降大于供给端,所以通胀得到控制。另外,我认为目前也没有通胀的环境,5%的远端利率还是太高了,住房按揭利率甚至在7%往上,对于投资者来说,如果目前的环境是高利率,且政策不确定性强,那最好的办法就是缩减投资,市场的水就没有了。 再谈经济,美国的经济可以倒过来想,第一季度的GDP因为特朗普的贸易战自疫情以来第一次出现负值,现在贸易战出现缓和,不会出现关税再继续增加的情况,接下来还能出现什么样的事情会比贸易战更加严重呢?接下来的主线还是在中美贸易谈判上,如果进展不顺利,那市场也会有不好的反应,但不至于导致经济衰退。经济衰退往往是在牛市fomo的情绪下爆发的,比如谈判进展顺利-美联储降息-大牛市-黑天鹅-经济衰退。 3. 先谈美元,只要美国的军费开支还是断层世界第一,美元长期信用不会发生什么变化。但接下来美元对于其他货币的走势,取决于特朗普政府是不是想要复刻广场协议,只能走一步看一步。再谈美债,接下来的降息,对债市的影响,能够预见是短债利率下降,长债上升,利差变大,需要注意的垃圾债的利差最近在不断扩大,说明投资人对于信用风险大的企业信心不足。美股应该很多人会谈,我就不班门弄斧了。 4. 首先肯定是贸易协议的进程,第二就是降息之后美国通胀的反应,就像我刚刚说的,通胀没起来的原因之一是因为市场没水,有水之后的通胀才是我们需要关注的重点,特别是在关税协议签订之后,供给端恢复的同时需求端因为降息也在恢复,市场情绪大好,那到时候通胀会是重中之重。
kayliat 凯利亚特 tweet media
陈桂林@Guilin_Chen_

一直在追 @qinbafrank 武兄关于关税问题的系列帖;走势也基本一步一步按照武兄的预判去走,真的很牛逼,我对这方面比较外行,就不分析了,提提问: 1,如果接下来这么走的话,虽然关税力度没那么大,但是还是有的(10%+一些额外关税),那从长期来说对经贸往来是不是还是有影响的? 2,当关税这个事儿达成平衡,影响市场行情走势的宏观基本面重点是不是又回到了①经济②通胀上,这两个目前看来是不是还不是很乐观? 3,整体看来,各国都是在斗争中寻求妥协,在妥协中保持底线,但从川普这么做以来,是不是美国(美元、美股、美债)的几十年来了基本逻辑已经发生了一些变化? 4,那接下来,在宏观层面,对于投资或者交易来讲,我们需要重点关注的点都有哪些呢?

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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@ChinaMacroFacts 就算卖了真的能降关税,也可以一周之后加回来。然而却没有第二个 TT 可以卖了。和这种老赖搞交换完全没意义。
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@bboczeng 如果美国真孤立主义了,这些大厂都得完蛋。
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@shijh96 @megakilo 实话讲,对占 CPU 市场的绝大多数的大厂来讲,如果转 ARM 能省 10%,他们就能 All in 搞。现在我所知的很多大厂已经在测试 ARM 服务器了。随着基础设施补全,随时会大量转 ARM。
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Caplume Research
Caplume Research@caplume_R·
@megakilo x86不会被轻易取代的,增长空间确实有限,但短时间内还是基本盘
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Caplume Research
Caplume Research@caplume_R·
我重申一下我的英特尔 $INTC Bull Case 1,目前的价格跌无可跌了,PS PB ratio都在历史最低位,也在行业最低位。 2,所有的利空都已经price in了,CPU市场份额下滑,制造部门亏损,负自由现金流,甚至连18A不能如期量产都price in了。 3,接下来会发生什么?CPU份额停止下滑,GPU出货上升,制造部门亏损缩小,18A如期量产,代工获得订单。随着这些事件的发生,市场对它的看法迟早转变。 4,18A制程进展顺利,PTL今年会如期上市,代工客户的订单肯定会大幅度增加,虽然营收可能到27年才体现,但是市场情绪会提前转好。 4,1月30号的Q4 earning 的指引是non GAAP eps $0.12,是正的,而且随着25年制造部门的亏损减少,和PC市场回温,我预计25年全年也是盈利的。请问一家盈利的,并且没有bankrupt风险的公司,如何维持一个0.8的PB ratio? 只是分享我的观点,不构成投资建议
Caplume Research tweet mediaCaplume Research tweet media
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SamuelCui
SamuelCui@samuel_n_cui·
@bboczeng Fractal 不错,但是我碰到过主板背板弯了的情况……
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勃勃OC
勃勃OC@bboczeng·
推荐一款ATX机箱,白色 我很好奇,都2025年了 为什么机箱前面板还是USB2的接口 没几个USBC?
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