Sancrypt
3.8K posts

Sancrypt
@sancrypt
Multistrategy Fund Defi ETH SOL | NFT | Top Blur Lender Punk Collector
Katılım Temmuz 2020
5.2K Takip Edilen7.4K Takipçiler

meanwhile habibie pas rupiah melemah & krisis moneter:
Jejak digital.@ARSIPAJA
Prabowo: "Rupiah begini dolar begini. Orang rakyat di desa nggak pakai dolar kok! Ya kan?"
Indonesia

Introducing the BAYC P2P Marketplace.
A peer-to-peer marketplace for BAYC apparel, collectibles, art, and weird one-offs from the Club.
Buy and sell directly on boredapeyachtclub.com/p2p

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Sancrypt retweetledi
Sancrypt retweetledi

@notthreadguy @stogolp Secure hundred hundreds of billions of economic activity from from stable coins to NFTs, from RWA's to DeFi. If ETH was turned off tomorrow it all goes to zero. All of it as does the future value. At least a $1trn on value
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$BTC update:
Price pushed up to a new high and hit retail's short stop-losses🔨
Although price is overextended, I don't see momentum shifting just yet. I'm sidelined for now waiting for a trade:
A) Signs of exhaustion: short
For this I need to pay attention to the volume. I do really want to see one last big green candle with a lot of volume which would indicate that the MM is selling most of his position. And that's when red candles will follow to restore balance in the chart and correct to the 4H50EMA to fix the current price overextension.
B) Sideways consolidation at 1H/4H EMAs: long to 1W50EMA
"Acceptance above an area" comes from a solid retest/consolidation of said area.
I don't want to long and that the case A happens straight after. So for that I need to see price stop pushing higher and simply HOLD here, wait for EMAs to catch up to price and then it can continue running up in a sustanaible way. If this happens, it could take days and form a trade for next week.
Conclusion:
Personally, mostly waiting for A) case to happen to trade again this week since it could happen today or tomorrow. Ideally it continues pushing straight higher without any exhaustion signs and it will overextend price even more so the short will be more atractive and worth it when we see those signs at higher prices.
Case B) should take longer to form and it's interesting, but again, probably for Friday or next week. Not a trade for today or tomorrow like potentially case A)
I'll keep you updated!


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The market tried to squeeze me, and failed to do so.
The harder we reject the 79K region,
the more you won’t like what’s under 70K.

Matter@Mattertrades
Shorted 10M $BTC playing a Sunday scam dump to mid 70s possible 72s with a hard sl at 79,400 Come get me bulls
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#BTC making an attempt here to traverse this thin ledge left behind from the sell off early in year
Makes for an interesting juncture
To trend or not to trend? This is the question?
If you are bullish out the gills, you would expect a steadfast move into the 88s where it should meet some stiff resistance (see large node cluster)
If bulls lose 73 k (blue line) new low retest coming imo
Tis good to be back
Time to click

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We turn negative on gold. From current levels, downside risk is skewed, with potential drawdown exceeding 10% relative to our comfort range.
The core thesis is driven by funding dynamics and the yen carry unwind.
As carry trades unwind, investors are forced to reallocate capital. In that process, gold becomes a natural source of liquidity. It is a non-yielding asset that has benefited from defensive positioning. As risk capital rotates, particularly back into US equities, gold is likely to be sold to fund higher-return opportunities.
The destination of that capital is clear. US equities, especially AI and semiconductor names, continue to deliver superior earnings growth and visibility. In a relative return framework, the opportunity cost of holding gold rises materially. Capital follows earnings.
Policy reinforces this view. There is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve turns more hawkish if inflation re-accelerates in CPI. Higher real yields are structurally negative for gold. The metal performs best when real rates are falling. That regime is at risk of reversing.
Positioning adds to the downside risk. Gold has been crowded as a hedge against macro uncertainty and geopolitical risk. If that hedge is unwound, the move can be sharp and disorderly.
There is also a second-order impact on gold equities. Earnings will face a double hit. Lower gold prices compress revenue, while costs, particularly energy, rise alongside higher oil prices. Mining is energy-intensive. When oil moves up, operating costs increase meaningfully, squeezing margins from both sides.
The setup is therefore asymmetric:
1) Yen carry unwind creates forced selling and liquidity demand
2) Capital rotates into US equities with stronger earnings momentum
3) Rising real yields pressure non-yielding assets
4) Gold equities face margin compression from lower prices and higher costs
5) Positioning leaves gold vulnerable to a sharp reversal
The conclusion is straightforward. Gold is losing its relative appeal in a market increasingly driven by growth, earnings, and capital efficiency.
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Saylor not even buying last week and BTC stays strong above 78k. Expecting to hit 90-92k by Mid May once STRC machine starting
Taiki Maeda@TaikiMaeda2
I'm expecting Saylor to buy $2-3B of BTC over the next 2 weeks via STRC, sending BTC above $80k. People capitulated and sold the bottom and there aren't enough marginal sellers to push us lower anymore. Expect buying to start this week and accelerate into May 14th.
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$BTC | Update (1W)
The last weekly candle closed as a Dragonfly Doji, which can act as a bearish reversal signal when it appears at the top of a trend.
For confirmation, we need to see the current weekly candle close below 76.5k at minimum, as that would confirm an Evening Doji Star reversal.
My bias for the week is Bearish, given that we pumped at the monthly open without any significant pullbacks or downside liquidity hunts.

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@CrypNuevo @Rory_Shamrock Apartment is a depreciating asset unless u really use it. This analysis might mislead lots of people.
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@Rory_Shamrock appartment* sorry.
Most markets have those prices for 1 or even 2 bedroom flats. Just don't look at New York, Barcelona, London, etc.
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I recently watched an experienced market practitioner with a CFA say that the US market shows concentrated behavior and high multiples, and then draw a parallel with conglomerate stocks in Indonesia. That comparison is misguided.
The US market is fundamentally driven. When companies miss earnings, stocks fall. When earnings are delivered but guidance turns negative, stocks are still punished. There is clear accountability to fundamentals.
Yes, parts of the tech sector can move ahead of earnings. But over time, the earnings show up. That is the difference.
Applying the same framework to Indonesian conglomerates ignores the underlying reality. The drivers are not comparable, and the conclusion is flawed.
When Indonesia gets downgraded to Frontier, calls like this will look deeply irresponsible. She should be jailed as she screwed up the whole Indonesian capital market. She promoted and spearheaded all these stupid conglomerate stocks first. And of course her firm got the license revoked 🥂
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Sancrypt retweetledi

Indonesian rupiah weakness is getting embarrassing. Also weakened against Zimbabwe Gold, Yemeni Rial and Nigerian Naira.
When a currency underperforms this broadly, it reflects a loss of relative confidence. Investors are looking at the full macro mix and finding it less attractive.
The Spectator Index@spectatorindex
🇮🇩 Indonesia's rupiah falls to record low of 17,377 per US Dollar.
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