Rob Jr.

If you could go short on bowman 1st autos of 5 prospects from pipeline’s top 100, who would you pick? Not saying they won’t be MLB players but more so that the prices of their autos are hard to justify. Here’s my list: 1) Caleb Bonemer 2) Ethan Holliday 3) Bryce Eldridge 4) Lazaro Montes 5) Charlie Condon

Ngl, it might be time to have conversations about DFAing Mark Vientos…

Are you curious how important the various statistics that get cited often for WR prospects are? I put together a quick guide. Most Important QB Rating When Targeted Extremely Important Zone YPRR YPRR PFF Route Grade 1d/RR Important PPR points/game Man YPRR Catch % 1D % TD % PFF Zone Route Grade Important-ish PFF Man Route Grade Tgt/RR MTF/rec YAC/rec Who Cares Drop % Takeaways QBR and Zone YPRR are the kings of efficiency metrics, and it really isn't up for debate (although regular YPRR still matters a lot, too). Drop % is a hot topic of debate right now (especially with KC Concepcion this year) but it does not have any meaningful measurable relationship with fantasy points. It's important to understand that statistics like YAC/rec and MTF/rec matter when evaluating prospects but they should not be solely used to excuse away bad QBR/YPRR or to discredit WRs with good-to-elite QBR/YPRR. aDoT isn't included here, but I also looked at it and concluded that aDoTs on either extreme are bad (and aDoTs in between are preferred) but aDoT's correlation in small ranges seems to be more in line with YAC and MTF (important but not a strong predictor). I'm planning to expand this analysis to also include market share metrics (dominator, breakout age, etc). Disclaimers Pure Pearson Correlation (as seen here) is not the end-all be-all for proving out statistical relationships (my prospect models use more complex methodologies) but it's a good start for contextualizing discussion that you see on this site. The correlations shown below are between college career metrics and NFL metrics across a player's first 3 seasons. All FBS WRs since 2016 to play at least 8 games across their first 3 NFL seasons were included (roughly 260).