Óscar Aceituno
1K posts

Óscar Aceituno
@scarAceituno2
Bombero Forestal INFOCAM.🚒 Cyclinglife. 🚲 Nature. 🌾🌿
Talavera de la Reina, Spain Katılım Eylül 2020
104 Takip Edilen68 Takipçiler
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Avrupanın hiç bir denizinde, nehrinde bu maviliği göremezsiniz. Londrada resmen çamur suyun rengi.
pristi@EM0B4NGTAN
GUNESLI ISTANBUL—>CENNET
Türkçe
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⚡️🚨🎯 EARLY WARNING: Elevated Summer Flood Risk — Brace for Potential summer torrential rainfall possible Impacts !
Using four independent analog model sets (20 seasons each), selected to match current conditions across ENSO, PDO, AMO, AAM, solar and astronomical forcings, and refined through ANN-based pattern recognition on ~280 years of climate data, a coherent signal emerges for June–August flood risk this summer in Europe 2026.
The analysis prediction time-window :
June to August but risk of floods may spill into September for some regions .
The map color anomalies guide: ( Orange and Yellow color anomalies on the map imply higher rainfall risk during summer months ) .
🔴 Highest Confidence Risk for Flood signals (Strong Multi-Model Agreement):
🇪🇸 🇵🇹 Spain & Portugal ( North and NE Spain is highly likely) ➤ Most consistent and intense signal across all models. So, these regions appear to be ➤ Primary hotspot for elevated flood potential during the forthcoming summer .
🟠 High Risk (Robust but Slightly Less Universal)
🇮🇹 Italy (north & central) 🇩🇿 🇹🇳 Northern Algeria & Tunisia (inland zones) and Parts of East Balkans and Black sea adjacent /close countries ( Romania, Ukraine, Bosnia, Hungary) and Turkey .
🟡 Moderate / Conditional Risk
🇲🇦 Northern Morocco, and NW Algeria bordering Morocco. Also 🇬🇷 🇦🇱 🇲🇪 Western Balkans / Adriatic belt (localized extremes possible). Some conditional risk for Greece and Bosnia.
🔵 Opposite Signal (Lower Flood Likelihood)
Central–eastern Balkans (dry anomaly tendency), these regions may indeed experience enhanced convective rain during shorter time windows during summer and not excluded .
⚠️ Operational Takeaway
A statistically consistent wet anomaly regime is evident—especially over Iberia and parts of the central Mediterranean. The agreement between modern and historical older analogs strengthens confidence in this signal.
Models ( 1 & 2) come from modern era post 1940 data and Models (3 & 4) use older historical data before 1940 back to 1860 .
👉 Preparedness actions should begin early, particularly in flood-prone basins across :
Iberian Peninsula
Northern Italy and parts of Scandinavia
Inland North Africa
Balkans East and W Russia and Romania, Chechia, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia.
Please share ♻️ and mention enthusiasts and concerned people , early awareness and preparedness saves lives and property!
This is not a deterministic forecast—but the risk envelope is clearly elevated.
Statistical Modelling & Downscaling By Mr. M. @Statisticizer , the chief data scientist at hodhodata.com, Irbid Of Jordan 🇯🇴.




English
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Óscar Aceituno retweetledi
Óscar Aceituno retweetledi

☔ Las dos últimas salidas de lluvias acumuladas del europeo y americano a largo plazo (0z +360 y +384) sugieren que la inestabilidad llega para quedarse al menos las dos próximas semanas.
En principio no se esperan lluvias torrenciales, hay que ir precisando con modelos de malla fina a corto plazo. 👀


Español
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The Iberian peninsula is perhaps the most iconic geographical feature of the planet as seen from space.
Max Evans@_MaxQ_
The Straight of Gibraltar Lisbon, Portugal Seville, Spain Casablanca & our incredibly thin atmosphere All visible in this one little corner of a photo taken from a little spacecraft tens of thousands of miles away… unbelievable
English
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Esto no le gusta al @ppopular ni a @NunezFeijoo @Mtelladof @EsterMunoz85 @cucagamarra @IdiazAyuso
España 🇪🇸 y Pedro Sanchez son admirados Internacionalmente
Español
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Cuando la noticia te sobreviene en directo.
Aquí la periodista @MRaquelMiguel junto con el cámara David Martín, ambos de la delegación de @CMM_es en #TalaveraDeLaReina, haciendo periodismo, sabiendo mantener la calma mientras narran lo que sucede.
Para poner en las facultades.
Español
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