$BTC
back to the spot holding $BTC
price couldn’t reach my last 10% limits at 130 and 140 but I’m happy with that
Already added back 10%
And will add as mention in the chart
If we will turn around here still aiming to sell at 130 and 140 I know it could run higher but not my cup of tea
Regarding $ALTS
still holding 50% of my $ETH bag after selling very very close to 5k will not add anymore
And the others happy with the amount I’m holding not going to add (as for now)
focusing on my long term $BTC spot
*i have different opinions based on LTF & HTF
$CRV / $BTC, 3W
During the latest $BTC sell-off, we can see that the CRV/BTC index continues to hold its long-term trendline, above which price has been consolidating since summer ’25. In addition, price is holding within the 3W OB, with its lower boundary aligned with the VAL.
What’s also notable is the behavior of the UO – it continues to print higher highs, indicating weakening downside momentum and a potential reversal.
It's so interesting how Bittensor subnets remain steady and growing while the market and TAO goes down. The direction of the broader crypto market has little effect on subnets and their alpha tokens, they seem to be somehow shielded. The end result is that while TAO price is down, the amount of TAO in the wallet keeps slowly ticking up. I guess it's a sign that the ecosystem is continuing to grow and expand. Certainly a very interesting and bullish dynamic, but also something I haven't really seen before. I definitely need to write a full deep dive article on this fascinating decentralised AI ecosystem.
@intocryptoverse And what happened in 2017 and in 2021?
So how many times in total it was “synchronized” vs how many times not , and there is your probability…
This year, there has been a strong pivot to using the ISM to predict where the price of Bitcoin will go, especially after many of the supercycle narratives coming into this year seem to have failed.
I want to show a clear example of why the ISM does not *necessarily* have to impact the price of Bitcoin.
First, let us take a look at 2014, which was a midterm year, and also a bear market for BTC.
Jan 2014
ISM: 52.5
BTC Price: $737
Dec 2014
ISM: 55.7
BTC Price: $302
So the ISM went *up* from 52.5 to 55.7 in 2014, but BTC went down from $737 to $302.
Imagine watching the ISM each month in 2014 and seeing it go higher, but then watching the price of BTC go lower. It must have been maddening (if anyone was doing that back then, but I imagine most people were not looking at these two things together).
Now let's look at 2015. The bear market ended in January 2015.
Jan 2015
ISM: 54
BTC Price: $322
Dec 2014
ISM: 48.8
BTC Price: $429
So the ISM went *down* in 2015, but the price of BTC went up.
If you used the ISM to tell you where BTC was going to go in 2014, you would have assumed BTC would have gone up in value because the ISM was going up. But in fact the opposite happened.
If you used the ISM to tell you were BTC was going to go in 2015, you would have assumed that because ISM was dropping, BTC was also dropping. But in fact the opposite happened.
A single data point does not make a trend.
But relying on a single indicator like the ISM to predict the price action of BTC in order to confirm a supercycle does not seem to be a wise decision either.
There are absolutely scenarios where they could both go up or both go down together in 2026 (as they have many times), but I think it would be unwise to rely on this single indicator to tell you where the price of BTC was going to go.
What is interesting is this:
The ISM in Jan 2014 was 52.5.
The ISM in Jan 2026 was 52.6.
There exists a scenario where the ISM goes up in 2026 (like it did in 2014), but the price of BTC still goes down.
In fact, I would argue that the more likely scenario is that 2026 is a red year for BTC while the ISM goes up, exactly like how it played out more than a decade ago.
I hope that the people using the ISM to bet on a supercycle can view this post as educational and not trying to attack anyone.
I have just seen a lot of people lose a lot of money relying on single economic indicators, and sometimes the price action of risk assets like BTC does not always make sense when compared to what is actually going on in the economy.
As the famous saying goes, "the stock market is not the economy."
But in this case we can say "Bitcoin is not the economy."
Binance just dumped $1B causing BTC to crash to $77K
The crypto markets will not recover until CZ is back in jail
TradFi noticed what CZ did on 10/10 and quietly exited their crypto positions
This is why BTC decoupled from gold and equities in October
You do not hate CZ enough
💯 Both views are silly. Possibly:
Sympathy when you get out of prison for a "no fraud, no victim" offense, and all of crypto of under attack from the "war on crypto" gov, vs now, pro crypto gov but bitcoin not making daily ATHs (even though bitcoin is still much higher than 1.5 years ago).
Or more simply, maybe just a bull vs bear market thing. Over generalization of course.
Either way, we continue to build.
Thank you for your support (and for taking heat for your unprompted posts)! 🙏😂
Interesting how CZ's favorables completely flipped in just a few months.
When he got out of jail, CZ got a hero's welcome, like he was Nelson Mandela or something.
Now people seem to think he's an SBF level villain.
Both views are silly TBH. But either way, interesting.