R Larse

@JohnCleese Nobody successful in business would take the pay cut required to be an MP, unless it was for unscrupulous reasons

These are not people with the sort of experience that Britain needs in its government

@leadlagreport As a kid I had a hamster called Hank. It bit through an electric wire and ended up with 3 legs and 1 ear. I feel Hank could play the lead in this metaphor

Nobody wants to talk about it, but the single most important macro indicator of the last 40 years is not the yield curve, not the VIX, not even the DXY. It is the hamster wheel. Let me explain. A hamster on a wheel runs at maximum velocity, expends infinite energy, generates zero forward progress, and remains convinced he is going somewhere important. This is not a rodent. This is the S&P 500 from 2021 to 2024. The hamster does not know he is in a cage. The cage is priced in. The cage is the Fed. Now. Japan. Japan has been running the largest hamster wheel experiment in monetary history since 1990. They have kept rates at zero for so long that an entire generation of Japanese hamsters has been born, lived, and died without ever experiencing a positive real yield. The BOJ is not a central bank. The BOJ is a pet store owner who forgot which cage he was supposed to clean. The yen carry trade is literally a hamster smuggling operation. You borrow the hamster (yen) in Tokyo for free, put him on a plane to America, sell him for tech stocks, and pray Kuroda’s ghost doesn’t wake up and demand the hamster back. When he does wake up — August 2024, anyone? — every hedge fund on earth simultaneously discovers their hamster is now worth 12% more and their Nvidia calls are on fire. This is called “risk-off.” It is actually just hamster repatriation. Here is where lead-lag comes in. The Japanese hamster ALWAYS moves first. He is the world’s smallest, fluffiest leading indicator. When the yen strengthens, hamsters everywhere feel it in their tiny bones. Retail hamsters in Robinhood accounts start twitching. Crypto hamsters go quiet. The Magnificent Seven hamsters, who have been running so hard their little legs are a blur, suddenly notice the wheel is squeaking. The wheel is always squeaking. The wheel has been squeaking since 2008. We just turned the music up. People ask me: Michael, what’s the trade? The trade, my friends, is to be the guy who OWNS the pet store. Not the hamster. Not the wheel. The store. That’s private equity. That’s Blackstone. That’s why Japan keeps buying JGBs — they are not investors, they are landlords collecting rent from 126 million very polite hamsters who have agreed, culturally, to never complain about the wheel. Meanwhile in America we have decided the solution to our hamster problem is more hamsters. More ETFs. More 0DTE. More leveraged single-stock products that let you get 3x exposure to one specific hamster named Elon. I have been screaming into the void about this for a decade. The void, it turns out, was a hamster. In conclusion: •Utilities are outperforming. The hamster is tired. •Lumber/gold is rolling over. The hamster smells smoke. •The yen is at 158. The hamster has booked a one-way flight to Narita. •Everyone is bullish. The hamster is short. Be the hamster who reads the Lead-Lag Report. Not financial advice. Definitely hamster advice. 🐹🇯🇵📉

@baroninvestment It's close to becoming a Super El Nino. Last time that happened in 1897 it rained in the UK almost solidly for 3 years! Cocoa, Rice and Wheat supply could be seriously affected also....

Prices have been rising again since June end. Newcastle-Aug hit a low of $126 and up to $132 today. Bull case rests on structural lng supplies, Indonesian export disruption, El Niño weather risks.

@LeoRisingCo @Fink_Money I only discovered recently too....due to kids being diagnosed and it being mainly hereditary. It's fun in our house! :)

I'm mild Aspergers, but without the systemised mathematical tilt, more towards the pattern recognition and perception side of the spectrum. Only discovered this during adulthood when I looked back and realised how many things such as sarcasm (I took things too literally), types of humour etc didn't make any sense to me as a kid yet others got it with ease. I had to train my nervous system to become more adept to social cues, and sarcasm in particular.

I just cannot comprehend how Elon is able to map things out in his head. Just doesn’t make sense to me. How are you able to have all of these moving parts aligned to be able to succeed? It’s a terrifying level of competence.

@LeoRisingCo @Fink_Money I'm AuDHD myself....so recognise the signs/thought process. ....obviously he's on a completely different level

@scouselouse @Fink_Money Wouldn't be surprised at all. It's part of the stacking effect in high performance people. One or two dominant traits stacked with others to complete the picture.

@LeoRisingCo @Fink_Money I'd say he's got some ADHD in there too, probably AuDHD. The autistic side quickly defines the critical path and intense focus towards solution. The risk taking, chaotic multi-tasking, public impulsivity point to ADHD

@Fink_Money High functioning Aspergers plays a big role here mate, it's an absolute superpower when channelled properly, but also comes with its downsides. He said his mind is like a storm, and that it's not always fun to be him.

@stoolpresidente Karen complaining to the manager didn't work? Maybe he could just try declaring you won the world cup? I'm sure Infantino can make up a BS trophy for you to win after the final, like the "FIFA Peace Prize".....utterly embarrassing for the proud Americans IMHO

Embarrassing effort from the United States. Lights were way too bright for US soccer team. Stage way too big. If we’re gonna keep creating international incidents over soccer it may be time to institute a soccer draft #usmt #soccer #usa

@stoolpresidente Why don't you just get trump to declare you've won and all have a party...

If anybody sees any Americans complaining that Balogun gets to play today please let me know so we can deport them until the World Cup is over 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

@3YearLetterman Up until recently I would have said paedophilia, but you got them licked I reckon...

I literally cannot name one thing that Belgium 🇪🇸 does better than America

@Fink_Money Their offices are named after places in Lord of the Rings....

I don’t like Palantir because the founders are weird, not because they do anything intrusive tbh.

@Fink_Money One of the few companies employing a bit of Neurosymbolic AI to cut through the LLM bias/BS. Important to be precise in finance, biotech, healthcare, etc

Yeah there is no agent that will able to give you the infrastructure institutions have. Stop listening to this marketing. And I like $HOOD

@baroninvestment It will catch a bid soon

I genuinely have no idea why anyone would be selling the shares here unless one really needs the cash. I must be living on a different planet to many of you. Net debt is collapsing and free cash soars ahead. The metrics are becoming irresistible. I'm stunned this isn't already testing 400p, currently 320p.

@Fink_Money $SYM caught my eye. Full stack warehouse robotics/networks. Recently profitable, VC sell off, massive order backlog. $CGNX might also have potential....both on watchlist

Physical AI. That’s the theme. Go.

@castofficial In the Irish Centre in Liverpool where most were supporting Germany 🤣

30 years ago today, the BBC used Walkaway for the final montage as England bowed out of Euro 96 on penalties to Germany. Where were you? 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 #England #Cast

@NorthstarCharts @Met4CastUK If the AMOC collapses we could see significantly lower temps in Europe, ironically

@Met4CastUK Unsurprising in a warming world. Centuries old heat records are being smashed by multiple degrees, whilst cold records are rarely challenged.

Jersey has set a new all time temperature record of 39.3C. It's officially the hottest day Jersey has ever recorded since records began in 1894.

@3YearLetterman The Americans need some chants threatening to deport the opposition

The British are in shambles that America now is the best in the world at soccer

@2147mill Gold. Future manufacturing advances, with graphene etc, will limit the industrial need for silver, especially if it's expensive

Gold or silver. If you could only hold one forever, which would it be? Would welcome your reasoning too

@GrizzKhan The bottom 3 would be painful during AFCON

LFC Midfield targets it seems : Wharton 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 £80m Scott 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 £60 Bouaddi 🇲🇦 £45m Camara 🇸🇳 £40m Sangare 🇲🇱 £40m . We could very easily revamp our whole midfield and set it for close to a decade by signing the bottom 3 for cheaper then first two. We won’t of course but any combo of these would be very nice and needed. #LFC

@2147mill I bought $QNTM and $QWTM at the same time, the latter has performed better so far

Three ETF’s I hold and am most excited about over the next 5-10 years Vaneck Space Innovators $JEDG Vaneck Semiconductors $SMGB Vaneck Quantum Computing $QNTM

@LukeGromen @RaymondDuck6 QE, surging structural inflation, negative real yields and gold goes nuts?

@RaymondDuck6 I think you're on it...and what happens if the 10y yield gets too high?

"Sometimes the biggest stories are hiding in the open." -Seymour Hersh Take for example the chart below: Why would the US ever export oil for USDs that the US can simply print for anything they want? 🤔