@WillBiddy_ For anyone wondering how cprt could be ai beneficiary here's what grok says about it
x.com/i/grok/share/b…
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seal
899 posts
seal
@sealcap
Mostly stocks, 20% hurdle + some trades on the side
Katılım Mayıs 2017
85 Takip Edilen310 Takipçiler
$CPRT is arguably the most disrespected compounding machine in the entire market currently.
-Incredibly wide moat
-Owns ~90% of their land
-AI beneficiary long-term
-Duopoly with largest market share
I think its about time for me to pull the trigger on this one...
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@blondesnmoney $db is an evergreen short
I saw some talk about Canadian banks earlier. The Canadian real estate has caused grey hairs for shorts for years, so timing is crucial there
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@NickKayal "stardom" became a commodity
It's simply not as special as it used to be
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Oscar ratings decline in two decades:
1996 - 45 million
2006 - 36 million
2016 - 34 million
2026 - 17 million
It’s over for these networks.
TV only exists anymore for live sports.
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For example, can $lite earnings grow 16x next 2-3 years? That would require something like 100% yoy growth 4 years in a row. Factor in dilution and such, the stock would still trade over 10x earnings.
Perhaps margins could expand meaningfully or maybe the runway is far longer than anticipated. I don't know.
There's certainly something I'm not taking into consideration, but thankfully there seems to be plenty of other opportunities to focus in to.
Hopefully it works out well for those who are in the trade.
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Photonics eg. $lite and such has been all over my FYP for a while now. Even though the growth and thesis make sense, the valuation might not.
Not going to make any definite conclusion on the valuation since I have no idea on how long the runway actually is.
Instead of blindly piling in it's probably best to assume it's already crowded and eye other opportunities meanwhile
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seal retweetledi
Mr. Market is bidding up to ridiculous valuations any “optics” sounding semicondictor name regardless of the basket case business history, and selling off tremendous earners and 3x revenue growers like $CRDO down to the teens multiples of actual earnings. We shall see how it works out beyond the voting machine.
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10x EV/fcf, 5x p/e according to qrtr data, guiding for some revenue growth this year
Retail business shrinking, digital business growing
Probably going to pass myself
taobanker@taobanker
most of you aren't ready for this conversation but $wu looks like it bottomed
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Interesting possibilities wrt upside for reddits LLM licensing deals. I didn't even know there could be a factor, I just thought that they would just improve their ad business
Jonah Lupton@JonahLupton
$RDDT -- just finished reading a expert network transcript from one of the services we use. This expert thinks $RDDT will move to usage based pricing for the LLMs (ChatGPT, Gemini, etc) when they re-negotiate their current licensing deals which expire in the next 6-12 months. Right now $GOOG is paying $60M per year... this expert thinks $GOOG (ie Gemini) might end up paying $300-400M per year in a new licensing deal with usage/dynamic pricing. I know for a fact the sell side is not modeling any of these new LLM licensing deals into their forward estimates so this is a major catalyst if/when it happens. Right now $RDDT is making $130M per year from Gemini and ChatGPT, it's possible that number could be $600-800M in the next 12-24 months at approximately 100% profit margins. Currently the sell side is looking for $4.1B of revenues in CY2027 with 41.5% net income margins.. which is $1.7B of net income. Even without these new deals, I think $RDDT does $4.6B of revenues in CY2027 with 43% net income margins... which is $2.0B of net income. Now let's assume we get these bigger LLM licensing deals... it's possible that CY2027 revenues are $5.0B to $5.4B but net income margins would be more like 52-54%.. which implies $2.75B of net income. In this last scenario (if it plays out the way I suggest)... then it means you'd be buying $RDDT today at 9x CY2027 net income. NFA. DYOR. **I own $RDDT personally and we own $RDDT at @FirstWaveFund
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I could see mean-reversion happening here. It's still a high roic business
Durable Investments @retaox
I asked for $CPRT at 20x. I got what I asked for. Now it's up to me to act on it. x.com/i/status/15719…
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@CapitalObserver See this thread, possibly helpful for gauging sentiment
x.com/i/status/20336…
Ted@TedPillows
Are you bullish?
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@Mindset4Money_X $four would certainly belong to this list, the founder bought a bunch recently
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Insiders sell for many reasons.
But they only buy for one: they think the stock is going higher.
So which CEOs are putting money on the line right now?
Here are 8 HUGE insider bets: 🧵
1/ $TTD - The Trade Desk
CEO Name: Jeff Green
Date of purchase: March 2026
Investment Made: $148.1 million
Cost Basis: $24.68 per share
Total Shares Acquired: 6 million shares
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@TalentedTargets @fiscal_ai This is a big one. Ibkr is the only broker that makes sense for me, alternatives in my Finland are over 15x more expensive. If you trade a reasonable amount, the difference adds up quickly. Not to mention broader access to markets.
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@RyanMDorsey23 I usually just use a 20% hurdle rate for the next 3-5 years
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seal retweetledi
… and yet $RDDT trades at less than 20x NTM EPS which makes no sense… easily one of the most undervalued growth stocks in this market with multiple catalysts on the horizon… 1+ billion MAUs… the fastest growing ARPU… new licensing deals with the LLMs… expanding margins… only $10-12M of annual capex
Qualtrim@qualtrim
Reddit might be the worlds fastest growing social media platform. - Total Advertiser Accounts: +75% YoY - Advertising business: +75% YoY - U.S. Revenues: +68% YoY - Intl Revenues: +78% YoY $RDDT
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@AlmostMongolian Interesting, thank you for highlighting. I used to own this a bit higher, but valuation does look more reasonable now
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Buying back some $zomd.v at 92-94 cents. The stock is trading at a very cheap valuation of $69 million USD, and EV of $50,7 million based on Q3 now should be $3-5 million lower.
P/E of 4.31 and EV/EBITDA of 2.93.
What finally got me to pull the trigger, apart from the valuation getting cheaper, was the recent interview with the CEO, where he said something that, for some reason, wasn't mentioned in the Q3 call.
The reason for the weak quarter was 2 big clients changing their MMPs (mobile management platforms). Now that's done, they should be gradually returning.
Q4 is also affected by this, as are Q1 and Q2 to a lesser extent, as the return to previous levels will be gradual. But World Cup-related marketing starts providing a material tailwind in Q2, and in Q3, these clients could be fully back to previous marketing levels. If the company is growing with other clients, adding new clients will be another offsetting factor.
So I think the company will likely regain momentum in the 2nd half of the year and could easily double by year-end, with limited downside due to their balance sheet, valuation and profit margins.
Currently, macro presents increased risk (Hormuz), which is reflected in Zoomd stock as well, but last year the stock was also falling because of macro fears (tariffs), which presented an amazing dip-buying opportunity.
FYI, because someone has already asked me this.
The Nametag "AlmostItalian" on the CEO who is active on the Zoomd conversation is not me.
AlmostMongolian@AlmostMongolian
Sold $zomd.v at the average price of 1.57$, up +104% from my cost-basis. Half straight after Q3 earnings were released at 1.63$ and the second half after the earnings call at 1.51$. The thesis was profitable growth, and now the thesis and momentum have been damaged until they return to growth, and they likely will eventually, but I’m not interested in waiting around when there are VSTs and LODEs available. When I got into the stock, it was 50m USD market cap with Q1 being 18.2m and 4.8m of net income, and growing y-o-y and q-o-q, and management was indicating more near-term growth. Insane set-up, only made possible by the heightened tariff fears at the time. And now it’s 109M USD market cap with Q3 revenue at 16.1m and net income at 3.8m, and falling revenue y-o-y and q-o-q, management being hesitant in the earnings call. It’s still cheap based on the P/E and the potential LT growth case, but not among the best R/Rs anymore IMO.
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Good writeup. I can see $four doing $10 / fcf per share in 2-3 years. The stock is cheap
Value Investigator@value_invest12
New writeup: Shift4 Payments: A Fintech Compounder Trading Like a Melting Ice Cube 7x free cash flow for a business compounding at 20%+ $FOUR Link in bio
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