Sean Callow

Hmm surely gold isn't trading off Korean industrial relations news now?! 🤨

Real money accounts on CME extended Aussie dollar net longs to a record (since 2006) +47.6k contracts from +44.9k week prior while hedge funds’ AUD stance was little changed at +55.9k. The combined position rose to a historically massive A$10.3bn from A$10.1bn, extending the remarkable swing from net short -A$8.7bn late Nov 2025.

@investingLive_ In the interview Trump said boots on the ground would have taken "a week and a half", implied that was too long

Boots on ground in Iran hint?

There you go, @Scutty it's been a few minutes

Hedge funds increased AUD net longs to +56.6k contracts in week to 5 May from +47.9k. Real money accounts were little changed, net long +44.9k versus the record high +45.1k week prior. Combined position rose to AUD10.1bn from 9.3bn. The Aussie was flat on the week at 0.7183 despite a calendar including Australia’s Q1 CPI data, the FOMC meeting and a third consecutive RBA rate hike, albeit the latter with language hinting at a pause in the tightening cycle.

@EricMGarcia We saw him at the footy recently. Think he loves it here. Sydney Sweeney too, can't keep away

Everyone: KEEP TOM HANKS AWAY FROM AUSTRALIA!

@ShaneOliverAMP Thanks for the chart. Is that perhaps 3mma on MI trimmed mean annual rate? BBG reports 3.1%yr in April vs 4.4%yr in March.

The Aust Melb Institute Inflation Gauge for April slowed to 0.6%mom but remained at 4.3%yoy The trimmed mean accelerated to +0.5%mom (after 0.4%mom in March) with the annual rate rising further suggesting some second flow through of higher oil prices.

Real money accounts on CME boosted Australian dollar net longs over the week to April 28, extending to +45.1k contracts from +36.5k. This is a new record high for the series which commenced in 2006. Hedge funds were little changed on the week, +47.9k vs previous +48.3k. Big picture, these accounts dumped their previous bearish Aussie stance around the turn of the year and have since remained upbeat throughout the geopolitical turmoil.

Bloomberg survey of forecasts of the RBA cash rate finds almost everyone expects a 25bp rate hike on Tuesday. Following Australia's CPI data showing further deceleration in quarterly core inflation, some forecasters are using phrases such as "a close call" while leaving a May hike as their base case. The median forecast for December in the survey is 4.35% but there are plenty of blanks, so maybe BBG will update the survey later. Market pricing sits around 80% chance of a May hike, with a total of +66bp priced by year-end.

I'll be discussing FX themes, oil (of course!), geopolitics and Asia shortly on @CNBCi

Well it's only been 13 minutes right, what's the rush?

Hedge funds and real money accounts on CME trimmed Aussie dollar net longs over the week to 7 Apr. HFs cut to +45.9k contracts from +52.6k and asset managers/insto to +40.7k from +44.6k. Real money had been record net long (data to 2006). The combined position slipped A$1bn to A$8.7bn. In the CFTC reporting week, AUD rose 74 pips to 0.6974, amid broad USD decline but Aussie outperformance. Data was ignored, the main driver remained oil prices and their impact on risk appetite. The 7 Apr NY close captured the start of a rebound in the risk mood as Pakistani PM Sharif said he is proposing a two-week ceasefire. The Aussie rallied about 30 pips on this and added another cent on President Trump’s subsequent post accepting the proposal.

@ddale8 @daveweigel Well Jo Nesbo has only sold 60 million books in 50 languages... Personal fave: The Redbreast

@daveweigel I think you’d really like the Harry Hole novels, which are so good - intense, absurd, filled with great little asides about humankind. I am bristling at all this casual slander of a cop legend this legendary

Is his name “Detective Hole?” Is he a detective who’s stuck in a hole? Or does he investigate holes? No I’m not going to look it up.

@DaveTaylorNews Remember that's the front month contract, even optimists wouldn't expect supply to be restored quickly. Dec26 Brent is around $77, Dec26 WTI at $71/bbl

Why did the oil futures market choose to bottom in the mid-$90s a barrel?

@EconoStream Agree with Danny, I see the ECB responding more like the RBNZ than the RBA

*TRUMP: IRAN DOESN'T NEED TO MAKE DEAL FOR US TO LEAVE ummm...bullish? 🤔

@investingLive_ @PeteWargent Ah but wait for April Fuels Day! -26 cents, thanks to your fellow taxpayers

@PeteWargent By a diesel they said. You'll save heaps, they said.

ATHs

CFTC data shows real money accounts on CME held fresh record Australian dollar net longs as at March 24. Their position extended to +43.9k contracts from +41.9k the week prior. Hedge funds increased AUD net longs for the first time since February 17, extending to +49.1k contracts from +45.4k, driven by reduced shorts. This boosted the combined position to AUD9.3bn from AUD8.7bn. This more bullish AUD stance did not align with spot price action, with the Aussie closing the CFTC reporting week at 0.6996 vs 0.7105 the week prior. Its -1.5% slide placed it at #15 out of 16 major currencies on Bloomberg. The week was the immediate aftermath of the RBA rate hike, with most eyes on the Middle East headlines and the risk mood broadly bearish. The only Australian data of note was the February labour force survey, which was mixed, jobs surging but the unemployment rate higher than expected at 4.3%. At face value, there looks to be plenty of room for profit-taking on the Aussie after its stellar start to the year.

@ZacGross Back in the day you had to arrive early for a spot in the Gravel Pit

Despite running out of both parking spots and petrol Monash has decided to give everyone free parking on Mondays 🙃

Not sure the speaker will be happy to see this story... politico.com/news/2026/03/2…