Michael

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Michael

Michael

@selfdefeating

I like to ramble about the NBA and economics.

Miami Katılım Mayıs 2009
36 Takip Edilen142 Takipçiler
Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
Haack blended foundationalism and coherentism, which was really exciting at the time. As a teacher, she all but forced students to memorize every sentence in readings before a session, which ended up helping us when we were working outside of class. dailynous.com/2026/03/11/sus…
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Mike Jagacki
Mike Jagacki@Mike_Jagacki·
The Miami Heat are challenging one of the biggest assumptions in modern basketball defense: “Giving up threes is bad.” But they've flipped the math. Because not all threes are created equal. This season: • Open 3PT% ≈ 40% • Contested 3PT% ≈ 33% That’s a 7% drop in efficiency. And when you look at Miami this is where things get interesting: They give up the 4th most threes in the NBA… …but they’re 2nd in contested 3s. So they’re not trying to eliminate threes. They’re changing the type of threes you get. And it's resulted in the 4th Def Eff in the league. And it goes even deeper: Catch-and-shoot 3s ≈ 36.7% Off-the-dribble 3s ≈ 30% Another 7% swing. They’re not eliminating the three-point line. They’re defending the three-point quality.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@PaulTassi Fanatical Destiny player here. I even love the current activities and sandbox. But this week I bought another game and have don’t see Destiny surviving. Everyone has left.
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Paul Tassi
Paul Tassi@PaulTassi·
increasingly wonder how many people show up for the next Destiny expansion (theoretically) in September
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Couper Moorhead
Couper Moorhead@CoupNBA·
Random note from a project I'm working on... Since Bam was drafted in 2017, no two players have tried to ISO him more than Giannis and Embiid. Those two average 1.00 ppp in isolation (9,124 plays). Against Bam, they've scored 0.75 ppp (162 isolations).
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
Only 1 of these would significantly reduce tanking. Giving all lottery teams equal odds of winning would result in fewer teams tanking, and cause tanking teams to tank for fewer years.
Shams Charania@ShamsCharania

Multiple sources with knowledge of Thursday's GM meeting as well as a late January Competition Committee meeting told ESPN that the following concepts have been discussed to curb tanking: •First-round picks can be protected only top-4 or top-14+ •Lottery odds freeze at the trade deadline or a later date •No longer allowing a team to pick top 4 in consecutive years and/or after consecutive bottom-3 finishes •Teams can’t pick top-4 the year after making conference finals •Lottery odds allocated based on two-year records •Lottery extended to include all play-in teams •Flatten odds for all lottery teams

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Betsey
Betsey@Betsycashmoney·
I feel like the "Small Market vs. Big Market" paradigm of NBA analysis is increasingly obsolete Stars rarely become available (via trade/UFA) before their rookie extension is up. The reality is: Many "big markets" arent any closer to landing a PRIME star than small markets are.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
Replacing the draft w/ rookie free agency & salary slots wouldn’t result in top rookies only signing in big markets. Do #1 overall picks ever decide not to maximize their NBA salary by extending w/ their 1st team? Young players tend to opt for the max salary they can get.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@JoshEberley Eliminating max salaries & implementing a hard cap would produce this result, but it’s not necessary. If the worst team in the league can pay a rookie the most money, and teams in attractive markets have markedly lower rookie salary slots, players would likely opt for more $.
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Josh Eberley 🇨🇦
Josh Eberley 🇨🇦@JoshEberley·
If Adam Silver genuinely wants to kill the draft, you need a genuine hard cap and no max salary for players. Lakers sign Luka for 80% of the cap, they can't sign every new rookie. Otherwise, if you make rookies free agents, it's an 8 team league.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
Tom gets into a plan that would eliminate tanking. Rookie free agency with salary slots gives the worst team in the league a great chance to sign a top prospect. It could pay the most money! Players prioritize getting max money year after year after year.
Tom Haberstroh@tomhaberstroh

The NBA should get rid of the Draft and do Rookie Free Agency instead. From my @YahooSports column on the NBA's New Year's Resolutions: sports.yahoo.com/nba/article/ma…

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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@YaronWeitzman You are right. This move would not eliminate tanking. But it would drastically cut how many teams tank, and how many games they throw to do it. This ain’t the best fix, but it might be the most a super majority of owners would accept.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@WorldWideWob Picks would still have value. This year, the Hawks would likely get to pay top dollar cuz of they own the Pelicans’ pick. And whoever has the Thunder’s pick would have little to pay. The Clippers could sign 0 1st rounders cuz they have no pick.
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Rob Perez
Rob Perez@WorldWideWob·
Oh, btw, what happens to teams sitting on a treasure trove of future draft picks? The currency just becomes toilet paper like a country experiencing hyperinflation? Does Sam Presti morph from Tony Soprano to Jackie Jr.?
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Rob Perez
Rob Perez@WorldWideWob·
This, on paper, should work. It’s been suggested by many sharp people who can justify an open market for rookies and elimination of restricted free agency. This, realistically, will not work. You think cap circumvention is a problem now? Just wait until shoe brands start financially incentivizing their rookie clients to sign with preferred franchises/big city markets. More than half of the Board of Governors are going to approve even more negotiating leverage for the prom kings & queens? Hard to believe, despite the sound logic.
Fullcourtpass@Fullcourtpass

Adam Silver and his advisors would “seriously consider” abolishing the rookie draft and turning rookies in free agents if it is the only way to stop tanking, per @joevardon (nytimes.com/athletic/70468…)

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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@WorldWideWob This article doesn’t get into a key aspect of rookies being free agents: teams would have salary slots instead of draft picks, and these slots would match the rookie salary scale. The worst team could pay #1 pick money, the 2nd worst team could pay #2 money, etc.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@HPbasketball People aren’t merely saying to ditch the draft and replace it with rookie free agency. They say that teams would have rookie salary slots, so the worst team can pay the most, and the 2nd worst team can pay the 2nd most, etc. Salary slots can also be traded.
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Hardwood Paroxysm
Hardwood Paroxysm@HPbasketball·
But the rookie scale ain't going away, I promise you that. NBPA is never going to move on that. So in a rookie free agent deal, the top teams could clear cap space and sign Petersen, Boozer, and Dybantsa.
DunningFreddieKrueger@dunkrugering

@HPbasketball The draft is an antiquated system and the salary cap prevents excessive talent from concentrating on one team.

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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@HPbasketball Yes! Yes! Yes! It’s a bummer that there is virtually no chance that sufficiently many owners would vote to fix this. Take OKC. They argued that teams should be able to do X. OKC did X. Now OKC is trying to prevent others from doing X. They all want their own safety net.
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Hardwood Paroxysm
Hardwood Paroxysm@HPbasketball·
See, and i'm DONE with safeguarding this shit. The owners want protection from their own bad decisions (contracts, trades, everything) and I'm done. BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR OWN DECISIONS
Donnie Hazlewood@Dn4sty

@HPbasketball My point is that everyone is up in arms about the Jazz and as a result want to completely upend the draft/lottery system. I’d rather have safeguards that keep organizations from making disaster decision after disaster decision. There is precedent (stepien rule).

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Esfandiar Baraheni
Esfandiar Baraheni@JustEsBaraheni·
Abolishing the draft is probably the way to go, but they’ll never do that. My pitch is to completely flatten out the odds. All lottery teams get the same chance at the #1 pick.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
@HPbasketball This would be a gigantic improvement. But it’s not as good as making all rookies free agents, and giving teams salary slots based on the rookie salary scale. Teams would have more incentives to do well and players would have greater agency.
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Michael
Michael@selfdefeating·
Can some NBA analysts interview working economists to evaluate alternatives to the current draft lottery settings? Getting more thorough accounts of incentives at play might, maybe, if we’re lucky, even convince some owners that this problem can be fixed.
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Keşfet

@PaulTassi @CoupNBA @JoshEberley @YaronWeitzman @WorldWideWob @HPbasketball @elonmusk @BarackObama