Pod Pete

@P_Remarks Feels like ppl shorting it as OpenAI bankruptcy play just feels lazy

Bought Orcl again. Last time was a quick 30%. This we ride to zero

@aleabitoreddit Baby’s first optical cycle

TLDR of Innolight investor relations takeaways: 1. "Overall, 1.6T market demand has not contracted; instead, 800G demand has increased significantly compared with previous expectations" Prob most important takeaway as a whole was 800G demand revision (also longer tail demand). Which is a bullish read through on US transceiver makers like $AAOI, $COHR, $LITE. Lot of new customers like neoclouds, AI model companies, contributing to overall demand rather than just hyperscalers, diversification always a bonus. 2. Innolight said the shortage covers the module supply chain broadly including: - Optical chips. - Electrical chips. - PCBs. - Other module materials From last ER, I think they singled out EMLs and CW optical chips as the most constrained. So Innolight's bottleneck list mention broadened since then. They expect some of the component availability to improve gradually from the second half of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Think a lot of this is already known from earlier though. But just some confirmation + easing timelines (EML is extremely bottlenecked, same with CW, this is probably talking about other components). 3. Innolight said module-production equipment is not the constraint. Equipment lead times remain relatively short. So this isn't really a bottleneck compared to others. 4. The overall proportion of silicon photonics continues to trend upward. Last year it was mainly 800G. This year, some 800G customers are further increasing their silicon-photonics proportion. 1.6T also added some new customers Positive for SiPH penetration eg. $SIVE / $JBL, since this shifts away from EML toward CW. Basically: main surprising takeaway is just 800g demand go brrr. Apart from that just reaffirming bottlenecks/timelines/market speculation.

@CKCapitalxx @P_Remarks it’s happening already

It’s crazy that $META is only a $1.7 trillion company when you list out what they actually own. WhatsApp. 3.3 billion users. The default messaging app for most of the planet. Bought for $19 billion, worth multiples of that now. Facebook. 3.07 billion monthly users. The largest social platform in human history, still growing. Instagram. 3 billion users. The default photo and video app for an entire generation, and one of the most valuable acquisitions ever made at $1 billion. Messenger. Another billion-user platform on its own. Threads. Youngest of the family and already past 400 million monthly users. Add it up and almost 4 billion people, half of humanity, touch a Meta app every month. Then the products stacked on top. The ad machine that prints over $160 billion a year and funds everything. Ray Ban Meta glasses, the first AI wearable that actually sells. Quest headsets. Meta AI pushed to billions of users overnight. Their own AI chip, Iris, entering production. And a compute buildout scaling to 14GW that rivals entire nations’ power grids. One company owns the attention of half the species and is converting it into an AI empire. $1.7 trillion might end up looking cheap.

@wholemars @elonmusk Stanaphyl short thesis incoming

One of Elon Musk’s companies, Tesla, is making cars for blind people. Another one of his companies, Neuralink, is working on restoring sight to the blind.

@AIStockSavvy Orchestration lmfao

$MSFT | DA Davidson reiterates 𝐁𝐮𝐲 on 𝐌𝐢𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐨𝐟𝐭, sees 𝐂𝐨𝐏𝐢𝐥𝐨𝐭 as the key 'orchestration layer'; 𝐏𝐓 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬 𝐚𝐭 $𝟓𝟓𝟎 Analyst sees Microsoft's CoPilot as a key 'orchestration layer' that funnels queries to the most appropriate AI model, a significant value-add.

@P_Remarks P remarks is saying one up in Wall Street but honestly none will give you alpha just read gorilla game and the art of short selling

There is only one book on this list worth reading

@aleabitoreddit This is completely wrong. I’m not a bear on memory but think through what it means for daily spot pricing for cumulative q/q pricing to be up 30 after an up 100 quarter- it exited prior qtr at peak it means flat to down spot

Just some consolidated updates on memory: - $MU leads new 1.5T Yen investment in Hiroshima ~$9.3B. (bullish read through for Disco, Advantest, Resonac, Towa) since capex is localized. - Morgan Stanley pointed out NAND will continue to be in short supply into 2027 so $SNDK / Kioxia type players are happy alongisde $SIMO and upstream. - MS remains especially positive on Macronix/Winbond - UBS expects the average price of DDR contracts in the Q3 2026 to increase 32% | 18% Q4, vs. 17% and 12% est. - UBS expects NAND flash to be raised 30% from prev quarter. - Samsung reportedly plans 20% DRAM hike Q3. TrendForce recently forecast DRAM contract prices to rise 13 to 18 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, so this hike beats expectations. Something to note: Lot people see 20%... and don't think it's a lot compared to the 70-80% from previous quarters. But if you hike something by 100%, then hike something by 100%, then hike something by 30%, it's a lot more than people estimate since it's compounded. Similar to tracking inflation. I've already made projections going into 2028 from the start of the year on my memory names... I'm just sitting back and watching things play out through all the "memory optimization" and "they can't keep price hiking like this!" noise.

@antibearthesis I’m confused why they haven’t used ai to close the loop on automated ticket resolution - why?

Why have i still not met a single $NOW shareholder who can explain what the company actually does?

@CKCapitalxx Isn’t part of the sucking that OpenAI delayed ipo to next year? What’s your catalyst until then

$ORCL is down over 34% in the last month because the market stopped believing OpenAI can pay its bills. That might end up being one of the more interesting setups in the market. The backlog is $638 billion, the largest in AI, up 363% in a year. Over half is one OpenAI deal worth $300 billion plus, and when reports hit that OpenAI missed growth targets, the market repriced the whole thing from money in the bank to a bet on one unprofitable customer. The risks are real. Heavy debt, negative free cash flow, one giant counterparty. But the endgame everyone forgets is the OpenAI IPO, one of the largest in history. The moment that filing lands and they raise capital on a scale no company ever has, the entire backlog gets de risked overnight. Until then, you can buy the biggest order book in AI at over 34% off. Could be nothing, could be one of the great mispricings. Worth watching either way.

@asklivermore BofA is very helpful on corporate access but their calls reflect what’s already in buy side expectations

Bank of America is telling you what to buy these last two weeks. The three sectors they're loading up on are: 1. AI storage - they raised targets for $SNDK to $2,500 and $WDC is $732. This is the same trade that Goldman and Morgan Stanley are making. AI data centers are consuming storage faster than manufacturers can produce it. 2. Travel - five price target raises in one day. $DAL, $UAL, $ALK, $ALGT, $AAL. Why? Because jet fuel prices are falling while summer travel demand is running at record levels. BoA thinks the street is still underestimating how good Q2 earnings will be. 3. Healthcare - $ARGX, $BTSG, and $CAH all price targets raised. BoA likes them because they are a classic late cycle defensive play and they are positioning for a market that keeps grinding higher but could get choppy. The three sectors they're cutting: 1. Chemicals - $DOW, $CE, and $FOXF cut and downgraded because they believe demand is softening globally as input costs are volatile and China isn't buying like they used too. 2. Staples - $STZ, $TSN, $PPC, $SFD all trimmed because consumer spending is rotating from goods to experiences. They believe people are booking flights, not staying at home. 3. Legacy - $CHTR and $NKE cut because they believe consumer behaviors have changed and don't see a growth catalyst yet The bigger picture is that BofA is telling you the economy is healthy but selective. They believe the winners are AI infrastructure, travel, healthcare.

@aleabitoreddit Trillion rupees

Does anyone else have this annoying seed planted in their mind too? Whenever I see $MRVL drop, I get reminded of Jensen’s comment “The next $1T company”.

@P_Remarks Exactly and by the way all the t2s getting their capex juiced via vendors

@P_Remarks Just did ten months of work and three Asia trips. Got priced in in 1.5 trading days

Just went long KLAC. On my math, if they beat 2027 street estimates of $5 by 100% and you apply 30x to that (a material premium to historical multiple for the amazing growth), there is 1.5% upside

@P_Remarks The sad thing is sataya could fix it with two firings

@tweet_tj @RJCcapital Boomer

@RJCcapital Why’s everyone fucking using the word “anon”? It’s so anonying.

*SK Hynix stock gains literally caused birth rates in korea to go up and ur bearish memory anon?

@P_Remarks Any excuse to put peak multiple on peak earnings as always

“Manufacturers literally can’t make enough pumps or grow crews fast enough” “They shouldn’t trade on BV anymore bc of service contracts with E&P and earning entire market cap in cash next 3 years at these margins”

“You can pump 24 hours a day, but physics become involved and you start going down a certain ID (inside diameter) of pipe at a certain rate, at a certain pressure. Those are finite—you can’t get any more” L o L

@P_Remarks Traders dream can make 17% single chart on screen

@_cosmic_kittens @P_Remarks It’s going lower another 50%

@P_Remarks top for msft

@P_Remarks And IGV gonna bleed lower

@P_Remarks It’s going to 1800

We’re bidding MU +15% because the SLAs represent 20% of DRAM volumes despite 4 large customers that signed them being the only 4 driving 90% of the spending? I don’t get it