Semper

Get the bags up! Kalshi is where it’s at

@atrupar No. It’s cause this country starting to not look like America because of Biden and Kamala’s open borders for 4 fkn years

Donald Trump just posted a video of Somali people enjoying the Mall of America to the soundtrack of “Mad World” because he is a bigoted POS

During the 2024 election, one anonymous trader bet $50M on Trump through five fake accounts. Here's how the #1 prediction markets trader (@Domahhhh) unmasked him: "A new account would show up, buy a ton of Trump, move the price. Then another new account. Then another. Over eight weeks — five accounts, tens of millions on the same outcome." "We tracked the wallets. All five accounts were funded from the same source." "The timing they traded all aligned. It was clearly one entity." "I started putting their garbled English comments through ChatGPT. It said: I think this person is French." "He turned out to be a true believer. Not nefarious — just one guy. He'd spent over a million dollars commissioning his own polls." "He did neighbor polling — 'We don't care who you're voting for. Who do you think your neighbors are voting for?'" "One French guy. $50 million. His own private polling operation. And he won tens of millions."

@0xTyrael 🤣🤣🤣🤣

President Donald Trump explaining Joe Biden and the Autopen to a group of 5 year olds at the Easter Egg roll 😅🤣

This is actually quite a big deal and a big win for the PM industry. The Third Circuit just handed down the first federal appellate opinion in the prediction markets vs. states fight. It's a 2-1 affirmance of Kalshi's preliminary injunction against New Jersey. The result: state gambling laws cannot reach into a CFTC-licensed designated contract market to ban sports event contracts. A note on why this one matters more than the flurry of district court rulings you've been seeing: the federal court system has three tiers, and until today every opinion in this fight came from the bottom one. Circuit courts of appeals sit one level below the Supreme Court, and their rulings are binding precedent across every federal court in their region. This is the first time a court with that kind of authority has weighed in on the preemption question, and its reasoning will carry real gravitational pull in every other pending case. Judge Porter's majority opinion is textually disciplined. It holds that the CEA's "exclusive jurisdiction" over swaps traded on DCMs means exactly what it says, and that sports event contracts are swaps under the statute's plain text. Even the dissent concedes this point, acknowledging that Kalshi's contracts fit "comfortably within the statutory definition." The majority then finds both field preemption and conflict preemption apply, going further than the district court, which had only reached field preemption. Going above and beyond, the conflict preemption analysis is the practical angle: bolting 50 state licensing regimes onto a single federal order book would recreate the exact patchwork Congress eliminated when it created the CFTC in 1974. Judge Roth's dissent makes the best version of the states' case. Her strongest argument is that the CFTC's own Rule 40.11 prohibits gaming contracts on DCMs, so Kalshi can't claim federal preemption for activity that arguably violates federal law too. The majority dispatches this cleanly: the CFTC has chosen not to enforce 40.11 against sports contracts, and agency enforcement discretion belongs to the agency, not to state regulators. The circuit split question is now live. The Fourth Circuit hasn't ruled on the Maryland appeal yet. If it goes the other way, the Supreme Court path opens wide. Given this Court's textualism, that's probably a fight Kalshi would welcome. I wrote about the doctrine and previewed oral arguments last summer (linked below). The opinion tracked my priors closely. I believe that there's an 85% chance that CFTC sports prediction markets will be upheld by SCOTUS a year from now.

Kalshi had a big win in NJ appellate court; all this court stuff matters in the near term for whether prediction markets can keep operating until big inevitable Supreme Court showdown courtlistener.com/docket/7031734…

@j0hnwang Gourke will cry when he sees that 😆

Turns out making a product that abides by the law and treats the consumer fairer than legacy products does put you on the right side of history

Get your bids in, prices are flying all over the place and this one should keep doing good volume numbers!

The girl next to the blonde has the most concerned face I've ever seen at a comedy show. 🤣

THIS IS INSANE.🤯 North Korea stole $285 million in 12 minutes. Drift is the biggest trading platform on Solana. The code was fine. Two audits found nothing wrong. North Korea didn’t touch the code. They went after the people. They made a fake token called CarbonVote. Put in a few thousand dollars to make it look real. Drift’s system thought it was worth hundreds of millions. Then they got the people who held the keys to sign off on transactions weeks before the actual attack. Nobody knew what they were approving. April 1: They pressed go. $285 million drained in 12 minutes. Every vault emptied. Token dropped 40%. The platform lost half its TVL overnight. Elliptic and TRM Labs both say it’s North Korea. Same pattern as the $1.4 billion Bybit hack last year. Same tools. Same speed. North Korea took $2 billion in crypto in 2025. That’s 60% of everything stolen in crypto worldwide. The US says that money funds their weapons program. And they’re doing it again this year. No bug. No exploit. They faked a token, fooled real people, and took $285 million. They spent months building trust. Then 12 minutes destroying it. That’s how it works now.

Trump issuing a strong ultimatum to Iran. He is threatening military strikes on power plants and bridges in Iran starting Tuesday unless they reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The language is very aggressive and uses profanity to emphasize his point. He wants quick resolution to the conflict affecting oil shipments

What does this mean?

JUST IN: Peter Schiff calls Bitcoin a "shitcoin" and challenges Michael Saylor to a debate.

“You can bet on anything. You’ve seen these sites like Kalshi.” SNL made a pretty hilarious fictional skit about mention markets on Kalshi (Reminder: This skit would never occur in real life because insider trading / manipulation is strictly forbidden on Kalshi)

@benwfreeman1 🤣🤣🤣🤣

@dom_lucre What crime was committed

🔥🚨BREAKING: The Dallas Stars arena announced they investigating these fans who allegedly threw up multiple Nazi salutes during their 5-1 game against the Maple Leafs. American Airlines Center leadership “American Airlines Center (AAC) has zero tolerance for any acts of hate and/or discrimination, and we aim to ensure an environment for our guests that is free from disruptive behavior, including foul/abusive language and obscene gestures,”. “As such, we strongly denounce the actions that appear to be depicted in the video footage and are conducting an internal investigation.”

@MentionMetrix Hell yeah! Congrats 🎉

Yesterday was one of my best days so far | +$4426 I love the days after big events. Cause for some time you get enough volume to realize all your ideas and plays.

@0xTyrael I didn’t see the original interview as a kid. I did grow up seeing George Knapp on TV a lot growing up because I grew up in Las Vegas. This guest is my favorite. Another great guest is Graham Hancock and Randall Carlson with the ancient civilization discussions

@sempertrades So good! Lot of nostalgia too, I vividly remember listening to the original interviews he did with George Knapp as a kid however many years ago

No mentions during the day and Rogan drops a Bob Lazar podcast!?!?! 🔥 Just found what I'm listening to today! 😂

@GK73986146 @CENTCOM Ah ok thanks

@sempertrades @CENTCOM Might be? It’s verifiably true. We have CSAR in Iran right now.

🚫 CLAIM: Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it downed an "enemy" fighter jet over Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz. ✅ FACT: All U.S. fighter aircraft are accounted for. Iran's IRGC has made the same false claim at least half a dozen times.

JUST IN: US reportedly rescued 1 crew member after fighter jet downed in Iran

@DHSgov I lived in Fairfax County when I was stationed at Washington DC. Fairfax has so many illegals very close to our national’s capital that it’s sick. Most of them hate America and commit crimes in broad daylight.

VIRGINIA VIOLENCE. 3 murders by illegal aliens in Fairfax County by illegal aliens already this year. Governor Spanberger must commit to not releasing these murderers from jail and work with ICE to ensure they are never allowed back into our communities to kill more innocents.