Ser Gains

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Ser Gains

Ser Gains

@sergains

BlockFi was a cautionary tale for $MSTR & $STRC.

Big Orange Bubble Katılım Nisan 2026
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
$1.5 Billion of ponzi liquidity.
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
SpaceX IPO = negative multiple losing 4 bils, but hey there’s an Anthropic press release. Just how big is this bubble? 🤔
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Sawyer Merritt
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt·
SpaceX in IPO filing: "We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. We estimate that our quantifiable TAM is $28.5 trillion, consisting of $370 billion in Space from space-enabled solutions; $1.6 trillion in Connectivity across $870 billion in Starlink Broadband and $740 billion in Starlink Mobile as well as additional opportunities in enterprise and government; $26.5 trillion in AI across $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications. For illustrative purposes of sizing our addressable market opportunity, we exclude China and Russia from our global estimates."
Sawyer Merritt tweet media
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt

SpaceX's IPO prospectus (S-1 filing) is now officially public! You can read the full document here: sec.gov/Archives/edgar…

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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@BigpictureBTC 100% of the DATs are 100% bs. The only way it makes sense is a real company eg Mag7 buys a conservative % for balance sheet. Otherwise any individual or institution that wants exposure can buy spot or ETF, or options for leverage.
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Derin Olenik
Derin Olenik@BigpictureBTC·
$ASST / $SATA is essentially $MSTR / $STRC at a smaller scale, but with cleaner execution. By watching Saylor's playbook unfold, Strive has operated without debt and optimized their approach. This difference in scale is the most important distinction between the two. The "perpetual dilution flywheel" (Treasury 1.0) relies on a mathematical model with a fatal flaw: it requires exponentially more capital just to maintain the same percentage growth rate. This trajectory always follows three distinct phases: Phase 1: The Easy Growth In the early stages, relatively small capital injections drastically move the needle. For example, when Strategy held $5 billion in Bitcoin, a $1 billion issuance created massive percentage growth. The metrics explode, keeping retail investors euphoric and the stock's premium high. Phase 2: The Scale Problem ($ASST) As the treasury grows, that same initial capital raise barely registers. To move the growth metrics enough to excite the market, capital requirements must grow exponentially. $ASST is currently in this phase. Because of its smaller scale (relative to Strategy), it is much easier to achieve the required growth, making the asset highly reflexive right now. However, the mathematical pressure to raise increasingly larger sums is already building. Phase 3: The Structural Ceiling ($MSTR) Strategy is currently in Phase 3. The company has reached a size where the scale-driven dilution required to sustain growth begins to outweigh the growth itself. There is a finite amount of capital willing to buy debt and overpriced equity. When a perpetual dilution vehicle becomes so massive that the market can no longer absorb the multi-billion-dollar dilution required just to maintain the illusion of yield, the growth metrics stall and the company is forced to sell the very asset it was built to hoard to keep the engine running. The Fate of Treasury 1.0 Ultimately, if both vehicles remain Treasury 1.0 wrappers and fail to evolve into a Bitcoin-native Treasury 2.0, they will share the exact same fate. Treasury 1.0 wrappers import fiat’s value erosion into Bitcoin. They may outperform fiat because Bitcoin is the underlying asset, but they also suppress Bitcoin’s upside by enclosing it within a monetary architecture (fiat) built on debt, dilution, and debasement. In doing so, investors cap both Bitcoin’s upside and their own, rather than simply owning the asset itself. Bitcoin will be financialised either way, but there is a fiat way to do it (value erosion), and there is a Bitcoin-native way to do it (value creation). If Treasury 1.0 is ultimately not good for Bitcoin and Treasury 2.0 is its necessary evolution, we should say so as Bitcoiners. This is not criticism for its own sake; it is about ensuring Bitcoin wins.
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@TaikiMaeda2 Last cycle, $BTC touched the 200 day then did this. Thoughts?
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@boldleonidas Even if he succeeds in running the price of BTC & MSTR vertical through his debt leverage ponzi scheme, the eventual rug & crash would leave incalculable wreckage.
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@saifedean But isn’t $STRC a debt-leveraged Ponzi scheme loaded with Block-Fi like risks? And did you notice $MSTR changed its MNAV calculation to a deceptively false one based on “enterprise value” which includes debt-as-stock to artificially paint lipstick on that pig?
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@danheld And he’s using a debt leveraged ponzi scheme to fund buys, involving risks akin to BlockFi which blew up offering a similar shaky-dividend plan. @saylor
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Dan Held
Dan Held@danheld·
Michael Saylor now owns more than 4% of the total Bitcoin supply. 🔥
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Rho Rider
Rho Rider@RhoRider·
🚨⚠️ Mornin’! It’s that time again. Saylor directly dilutes common share holders another $83.7M + prints another $1.94 BILLION $STRC Ponzi preferred (which dilutes common share holders another $223.1m/yr to pay for dividends) …to buy Bitcoin at a horrendous entry >$80K
Rho Rider tweet media
Michael Saylor@saylor

Strategy has acquired 24,869 BTC for ~$2.01 billion at ~$80,985 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 12.6% YTD 2026. As of 5/17/2026, we hodl 843,738 $BTC acquired for ~$63.87 billion at ~$75,700 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy…

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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@benjamincowen This bear market relief rally did NOT make a fool out of you, ser.😉 Down.
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Benjamin Cowen
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen·
Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation In this video we talk about Bitcoin nearing the 200D SMA. In 2018/2022, the 200D SMA was the local high. In 2014/2019, BTC went slightly above. In 2014/2018/2022, the lower high occurred around the 0.382 Fib retracement, which is around $85k. But in 2018 and 2022 that corresponded to the 200D SMA. Tough market to get right, but my guess is that a lower high is eventually formed and then BTC forms a major low in October 2026.
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Ansem
Ansem@blknoiz06·
why do bitcoin & ethereum look like aids but hype & zec look like warm milk
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Vivek Sen
Vivek Sen@Vivek4real_·
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST DISCLOSED BUYING BITCOIN MINING STOCK $MARA HE KNOWS WHAT’S COMING 🚀
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David Lawrence
David Lawrence@d_1awrence·
Saylor's been buying Bitcoin & he's been buying Big! Remember, they announced that they've paid off $1.5B of convertible debt this week. I can still see a 20,000 Bitcoin announcement tomorrow. R E L E N T L E S S 🧡
Michael Saylor@saylor

₿ig Dot Energy.

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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
"We buy bitcoin, the price doesn't go up." - Saylor
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@coldtrz Name an “asset” with a current 2ish Trillion market cap that could flash crash in this manner, even theoretically?
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cold
cold@coldtrz·
This developer rugpulled $2.1 trillion The biggest rug in the history of crypto
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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
The scam is so obvious.
.@AMIMIR1992

@sergains @saylor Totally agree. I prefer to continue accumulating Bitcoin and not buy shares of a company that needs extreme leverage to acquire Bitcoin and pay debt. MicroStrategy depends on 2 things, 1 Bitcoin must rise in price and 2 more stock buyers for the gear to continue working.

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Ser Gains
Ser Gains@sergains·
@jasonmcmaster1 What % of your liquid is $STRC, and is it an amount you’re prepared to lose if $MSTR goes down like BlockFi? We saw this movie in 2022, right? Remember how it ends?
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jason mcmaster
jason mcmaster@jasonmcmaster1·
Here’s a concept; if you think it’s a ponzi don’t buy it. Find something to be positive about, that you believe it. I believe in bitcoin and therefore STRC, so I dropped 600k in to STRC , I’m getting >5k per month, I’m planning to build my position to 1m then 2m. If it’s a ponzi and blows up feel free to ridicule me. But at least I showed conviction in something.
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